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Working Paper
The Economic Effects of Trade Policy Uncertainty
We study the effects of unexpected changes in trade policy uncertainty (TPU) on the U.S. economy. We construct three measures of TPU based on newspaper coverage, firms' earnings conference calls, and aggregate data on tari rates. We document that increases in TPU reduce investment and activity using both firm-level and aggregate macroeconomic data. We interpret the empirical results through the lens of a two-country general equilibrium model with nominal rigidities and firms' export participation decisions. In the model as in the data, news and increased uncertainty about higher future ...
Journal Article
Labor Market Risk Associated with Trade Uncertainty More Limited in Nebraska
Nebraska’s labor market has remained strong through the first quarter of 2025 and faces more limited risk from trade policy uncertainty than other states.