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Fed’s Mortgage-Backed Securities Purchases Sought Calm, Accommodation During Pandemic
Frame, W. Scott; Greene, Brian; Hull, Cindy E.; Zorsky, Josh (2021-08-26)
We explore the Federal Reserve’s purchases of agency MBS—mortgage bonds guaranteed by Ginnie Mae, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac—and related market dynamics during the pandemic, including why mortgage rates fell to historic lows.
Dallas Fed Economics

Working Paper
Inequality in the Welfare Costs of Disinflation
Rubinton, Hannah; Pugsley, Benjamin (2021-09-23)
We use an incomplete markets economy to quantify the distribution of welfare gains and losses of the US “Volcker” disinflation. In the long run households prefer low inflation, but disinflation requires a transition period and a redistribution from net nominal borrowers to net nominal savers. Welfare costs may be significant for households with nominal liabilities. When calibrated to match the micro and macro moments of the early 1980s high-inflation environment and the actual changes in the nominal interest rate and inflation during the Volcker disinflation, nearly 60 percent of all ...
Working Papers , Paper 2020-021

Newsletter
The Rise of Intangible Investment and the Transmission of Monetary Policy
David, Joel M.; Gourio, François (2023-08)
Monetary policy acts on the economy primarily through its effects on investment spending. But the nature of investment has evolved over time: “Intangible assets”—such as intellectual property or software—play an increasingly important role in the modern economy. In this Chicago Fed Letter, we study the implications of this change for the transmission of monetary policy. We show that investment in intangible assets is less sensitive to interest rates than investment in tangible assets. This suggests that the secular shift toward intangibles has reduced the responsiveness of aggregate ...
Chicago Fed Letter , Volume no 482 , Pages 8

Working Paper
Ties That Bind: Estimating the Natural Rate of Interest for Small Open Economies
Zhang, Ren; Wynne, Mark A.; Martinez-Garcia, Enrique; Grossman, Valerie (2021-03-05)
This paper estimates the natural rate of interest for six small open economies (Australia, Canada, South Korea, Sweden, Switzerland and the U.K.) with a structural New Keynesian model using Bayesian techniques. Our empirical analysis establishes the following four main findings: First, we show that the open economy framework provides a better fit of the data than its closed economy counterpart for the six countries we investigate. Second, we also show that, in all six countries, a Taylor (1993)-type monetary policy rule that tracks the Wicksellian short-term natural rate fits the data better ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 359

Real-Time Market Monitoring Finds Signs of Brewing U.S. Housing Bubble
Coulter, Jarod; Grossman, Valerie; Martinez-Garcia, Enrique; Phillips, Peter C.B.; Shi, Shuping (2022-03-29)
There is growing cause for concern that U.S. house prices are again becoming unhinged from fundamentals.
Dallas Fed Economics

Discussion Paper
The Macro Effects of the Recent Swing in Financial Conditions
Smith, Micah; Giannoni, Marc; Del Negro, Marco (2016-05-25)
Credit conditions tightened considerably in the second half of 2015 and U.S. growth slowed. We estimate the extent to which tighter credit conditions last year were responsible for the slowdown using the FRBNY DSGE model. We find that growth would have slowed substantially more had the Federal Reserve not delayed liftoff in the federal funds rate.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20160525

Life Insurers’ Preference for Familiar Bond Issuers Limits COVID-19 Shock Transmission
Almeida, Alex; Barbosa, Monica; Ozdagli, Ali K. (2021-10-05)
Despite regulations that encourage diversification and informational symmetry among buyers, insurance companies tend to lend to their current borrowers. This bondholder–issuer relationship moderates the effect of transitory economic shocks such as those associated with the onset of COVID-19.
Dallas Fed Economics

Global Perspectives: Donald Kohn on Greenspan and Bernanke, the Global Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 Challenge
Wynne, Mark A. (2020-06-02)
Kohn and Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan discussed Kohn’s career at the Fed, his experience during the Global Financial Crisis and his thoughts on the Fed’s reaction to the current crisis.
Dallas Fed Economics

Speech
The Outlook for the Economy and Monetary Policy; 02.13.19; University of Kentucky Gatton College of Business and Economics, 2019 Economic Outlook Conference, Lexington, KY
Mester, Loretta J. (2019-02-13)
The Cleveland Fed is one of 12 regional Reserve Banks distributed across the country that, along with the Board of Governors in Washington, D.C., comprise the Federal Reserve System. This regional structure helps us to collect information from around the country so that our monetary policy decisions can take into account the diversity of the American economy and its people. I am very grateful for the many contacts throughout our District who generously share with us their insights into business activity, labor markets, and financial conditions. This timely information is collected through our ...
Speech , Paper 105

Briefing
How Do Small Business Finance and Monetary Policy Interact?
Phelps, Hailey; Wong, Russell (2020-10)
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Volume 20 , Issue 11 , Pages 6 pgs.

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