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Working Paper
Relative Price Shocks and Inflation
Ruge-Mucia, Francisco J.; Wolman, Alexander L. (2022-05)
Inflation is determined by interaction between real factors and monetary policy. Among the most important real factors are shocks to the supply and demand for different components of the consumption basket. We use an estimated multi-sector New Keynesian model to decompose the behavior of U.S. inflation into contributions from sectoral (or "relative price") shocks, monetary policy shocks, and aggregate real shocks. The model is estimated by maximum likelihood with U.S. data for the post-1994 period in which inflation and the monetary policy regime appeared to be stable. In addition to ...
Working Paper , Paper 22-07

Conference Paper
Opening Remarks: Monetary Policy in the Time of COVID
Powell, Jerome H. (2021-08-27)
Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole

Working Paper
The costs and benefits of liquidity regulations: Lessons from an idle monetary policy tool
Curfman, Christopher; Kandrac, John (2019-05-28)
We investigate how liquidity regulations affect banks by examining a dormant monetary policy tool that functions as a liquidity regulation. Our identification strategy uses a regression kink design that relies on the variation in a marginal high-quality liquid asset (HQLA) requirement around an exogenous threshold. We show that mandated increases in HQLA cause banks to reduce credit supply. Liquidity requirements also depress banks' profitability, though some of the regulatory costs are passed on to liability holders. We document a prudential benefit of liquidity requirements by showing that ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2019-041

Global Perspectives: Banco de México’s Alejandro Díaz de León on COVID-19, Trade and Inflation Targeting
Wynne, Mark A. (2020-10-27)
Díaz de León and Dallas Fed President Robert S. Kaplan discussed COVID-19, the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA) and inflation targeting.
Dallas Fed Economics

Newsletter
The Rise of Intangible Investment and the Transmission of Monetary Policy
David, Joel M.; Gourio, François (2023-08)
Monetary policy acts on the economy primarily through its effects on investment spending. But the nature of investment has evolved over time: “Intangible assets”—such as intellectual property or software—play an increasingly important role in the modern economy. In this Chicago Fed Letter, we study the implications of this change for the transmission of monetary policy. We show that investment in intangible assets is less sensitive to interest rates than investment in tangible assets. This suggests that the secular shift toward intangibles has reduced the responsiveness of aggregate ...
Chicago Fed Letter , Volume no 482 , Pages 8

Speech
How Did the Economy Get Here?
Barkin, Tom (2024-11-12)
A strong but choosier consumer, coupled with a more productive and better valued workforce has landed the economy in a good place.As a consequence, the FOMC has started the process of recalibrating rates to somewhat less restrictive levels.Tomorrow looks different based on whether you take more signal from levels or trends.With the economy now in a good place and interest rates off their recent peak but also off their historic lows, the Fed is in position to respond appropriately regardless of how the economy evolves.
Speech

Working Paper
Optimal Monetary Policy under Negative Interest Rate
Wen, Yi; Dong, Feng (2017-05-16)
In responding to the extremely weak global economy after the financial crisis in 2008, many industrial nations have been considering or have already implemented negative nominal interest rate policy. This situation raises two important questions for monetary theories: (i) Given the widely held doctrine of the zero lower bound on nominal interest rate, how is a negative interest rate (NIR) policy possible? (ii) Will NIR be effective in stimulating aggregate demand? (iii) Are there any new theoretical issues emerging under NIR policies? This article builds a model to show that (i) money ...
Working Papers , Paper 2017-19

Speech
The Economic Outlook, Monetary Policy, and Normal Policymaking Now and in the Future; 10.25.18 Money Marketeers of New York University, Inc., New York, NY
Mester, Loretta J. (2018-10-25)
I thank the Money Marketeers of New York University for inviting me back to speak tonight. When I was here four years ago, I discussed the important role that Federal Reserve communications play in making effective monetary policy and the need for these communications to evolve as we moved from a period of extraordinary monetary policymaking to more normal policymaking. At this point, that transition to more normal policymaking has been underway for some time, reflecting the health of the U.S. economy and the progress that?s been made on the FOMC?s monetary policy goals. Tonight, I?ll talk ...
Speech , Paper 101

Working Paper
Financial Constraints, Sectoral Heterogeneity, and the Cyclicality of Investment
Howes, Cooper (2021-08-27)
While investment in most sectors declines in response to a contractionary monetary policy shock, investment in the manufacturing sector increases. Using manually digitized aggregate income and balance sheet data for the universe of U.S. manufacturing firms, I show this increase is driven by the types of firms that are least likely to be financially constrained. A two-sector New Keynesian model with financial frictions can match these facts; unconstrained firms are able to take advantage of the decline in the user cost of capital caused by the monetary contraction, while constrained firms are ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 21-06

Speech
The Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy Communications 03.21.17 The Stanley S. Watts Lecture, The Robins School of Business, University of Richmond, Richmond, VA
Mester, Loretta J. (2017-03-21)
This evening, I will speak about monetary policy and the role of communications in Federal Reserve policymaking. I serve on the Federal Open Market Committee?s subcommittee on communications, so it may not be surprising that I believe communications play an essential role in monetary policy implementation. Of course, my remarks this evening will reflect my own views and not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve System or my colleagues on the Federal Open Market Committee.
Speech , Paper 80

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