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Working Paper
Auto Sales and Credit Supply
Vehicle purchases fell by more than 20 percent during the 2007-09 recession, and auto loan originations fell by a third. We show that vehicle purchases typically account for an outsized share of the contraction in economic activity during a recession, in part because a concurrent tightening in auto lending conditions makes car purchases less affordable for many households. We explore the link between lending conditions and vehicle purchases with a novel gauge of credit supply conditions--household perceptions of vehicle financing conditions as measured on the Reuters/University of Michigan ...
How Well Are Inflation Expectations Anchored? Two Datasets Compared
What anchors inflation expectations? An analysis breaks down how anticipated drift from the Fed’s 2% target and divergence among forecasts each contribute.