Search Results

SORT BY: PREVIOUS / NEXT
Keywords:Index numbers (Economics) 

Journal Article
Future recession risks

An unstable economic environment has rekindled talk of a double-dip recession. The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index provides data for predicting the probability of a recession but is limited by the weight assigned to its indicators and the varying efficacy of those indicators over different time horizons. Statistical experiments with LEI data can mitigate these limitations and suggest that a recessionary relapse is a significant possibility sometime in the next two years.
FRBSF Economic Letter

Journal Article
What a new set of indexes tells us about state and national business cycles

Ted Crone presents information on a recently constructed set of coincident indexes for the 50 states. These indexes can be used to define business cycles at the state level and can tell us how business cycles and the overall patterns of growth have differed among the states.
Business Review , Issue Q1 , Pages 11-24

Journal Article
Indexing inflation: remedy or malady?

Business Review , Issue Mar , Pages 3-15

Journal Article
Economic statistics: new needs for the twenty-first century - opening remarks

The purpose of this conference was to deepen our understanding of some of the key conceptual issues current facing those charged with measuring the performance of the U.S. economy and other economies around the globe. The speakers discussed recent efforts to improve economic and financial data and explore strategies for meeting the challenges that lay ahead. The conference focused on four key areas: 1) the measurement of intangible capital, 2) the measurement of service sector output, prices and productivity, 3) the measurement of international capital positions and flows, and 4) the use of ...
Economic Policy Review , Issue Sep , Pages 3-4

Journal Article
Leading economic indexes for New York State and New Jersey

The authors develop indexes of leading economic indicators for New York State and New Jersey over the 1972-99 period. They find that the leading indexes convey useful information about the future course of economic activity in both states. The authors then construct separate indexes to forecast recessions and expansions in each state. The movements of the recession and expansion indexes are found to display a close relationship with the behavior of the leading indexes. Accordingly, the recession and expansion indexes allow the authors to extend the informational content of the leading indexes ...
Economic Policy Review , Issue Mar , Pages 73-94

Journal Article
Problems measuring prices

FRBSF Economic Letter

Journal Article
Measuring the dollar's strength

FRBSF Economic Letter

Report
Is there an S&P 500 index effect?

We find that the firms included in the S&P 500 index are characterized by large increases in earnings, appreciation in market value, and positive price momentum in the period preceding their index inclusion. This strong preinclusion performance predicts 1) the permanent increase of market value and 2) the change in return comovement, reflected in declines of size, value, and momentum betas, following index inclusion. Nonevent firms with similar performance experience similar appreciation in value and changes in comovement coincident with the event firms. Contrary to the consensus in the ...
Staff Reports , Paper 484

Journal Article
Two new indexes offer a broad view of economic activity in the New York - New Jersey region

The authors develop two coincident indexes that provide a comprehensive measure of economic activity in New Jersey, New York State, and New York City.
Current Issues in Economics and Finance , Volume 5 , Issue Oct

Journal Article
The 2001 recession and the Chicago Fed National Index: identifying business cycle turning points

The initial release of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) in early 2001 pointed to the very real possibility that the U.S. economy was teetering on the brink of recession. This article quantifies the statistical ability of the CFNAI to act as an early warning indicator of economic recessions. In simulation experiments, the CFNAI performed virtually as well as the statistical model's ideal measure of the business cycle.
Economic Perspectives , Volume 26 , Issue Q III , Pages 26-43

FILTER BY year

FILTER BY Content Type

Journal Article 16 items

Report 1 items

Speech 1 items

FILTER BY Jel Classification

G10 1 items

G12 1 items

G14 1 items

FILTER BY Keywords

PREVIOUS / NEXT