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Working Paper
Total Recall? Evaluating the Macroeconomic Knowledge of Large Language Models
Crane, Leland D.; Karra, Akhil; Soto, Paul E. (2025-06-25)
We evaluate the ability of large language models (LLMs) to estimate historical macroeconomic variables and data release dates. We find that LLMs have precise knowledge of some recent statistics, but performance degrades as we go farther back in history. We highlight two particularly important kinds of recall errors: mixing together first print data with subsequent revisions (i.e., smoothing across vintages) and mixing data for past and future reference periods (i.e., smoothing within vintages). We also find that LLMs can often recall individual data release dates accurately, but aggregating ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2025-044

Conference Paper
International payments imbalances in Japan, Germany, and the United States
Marchese, Grazia; Branson, William H. (1988)
Conference Series ; [Proceedings] , Volume 32 , Pages 19-57

Working Paper
The Ohio economy: using time series characteristics in forecasting
Hoehn, James G.; Balazsy, James J. (1985)
The premise of this study is that the regional economist can better understand the Ohio economy by studying the properties of important Ohio time series that can be identified and quantified through simple regression methods.
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 8508

Journal Article
Projecting deficits
Bursan, Jean; Walsh, Carl E. (1986)
FRBSF Economic Letter

Working Paper
Should fixed coefficients be reestimated every period for extrapolation?
Swamy, P. A. V. B.; Schinasi, Garry J. (1986)
This paper demonstrates that forecast accuracy is not necessarily improved when fixed coefficient models are sequentially reestimated, and used for prediction, after updating the database with the latest observation(s). This is at variance with the now popular method (see Meese and Rogoff (1983, 1985)) of sequentially reestimating fixed coefficient models for prediction as new data "rolls" in. It is argued that although "rolling" may minimize the variance of predictions for some classes of estimators, "rolling" does not necessarily yield accurate predictions (i.e., predictions that are ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 287

Conference Paper
Are banking supervisory data useful for macroeconomic forecasts?
Feldman, Ron J.; Miller, Preston J.; Schmidt, Jason; Kim, Jangryoul (2002)
Proceedings , Paper 825

Journal Article
Business forecasts 1978 : a year of moderate economic growth
Summers, Bruce J.; Baker, Sandra D. (1978-01)
An abstract for this article is not available
Economic Review , Volume 64 , Issue Jan , Pages 2-6

Journal Article
Inflation expectations surveys as predictors of inflation and behavior in financial and labor markets
Stone, Gary; Englander, A. Steven (1989-10)
Quarterly Review , Volume 14 , Issue Aut , Pages 20-32

Journal Article
Real output and unit labor costs as predictors of inflation
Mehra, Yash P. (1990-07)
Granger-causality tests used here find that: [1] unit labor costs add no predictive power to inflation forecasts; and [2] the gap between actual and potential output does help predict inflation, but only in the short run.
Economic Review , Volume 76 , Issue Jul , Pages 31-39

Working Paper
A Bayesian evaluation of alternative models of trend inflation
Clark, Todd E.; Doh, Taeyoung (2011)
The concept of trend inflation is important in making accurate inflation forecasts. However, there is little consensus on how the trend in inflation should be modeled. While some studies suggest a survey-based measure of long-run inflation expectations as a good empirical proxy for trend inflation, others have argued for a statistical exercise of decomposing inflation data into trend and cycle components. In this paper, we assess alternative models of trend inflation based on the accuracy of medium-term inflation forecasts. To incorporate recent evidence on the time-varying macroeconomic ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 11-16

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