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Working Paper
Where are global and U.S. trade heading in the aftermath of the trade collapse: issues and alternative scenarios
Schnatz, Bernd; di Mauro, Filippo; Gruber, Joseph W.; Zorell, Nico (2011)
Global and U.S. trade declined dramatically in the wake of the global financial crisis in late 2008 and early 2009. The subsequent recovery in trade, while vigorous at first, gradually lost momentum in 2010. Against this backdrop, this paper explores the prospects for global and U.S. trade in the medium term. We develop a unified empirical framework ? an error correction model ? that exploits the cointegrating relationship between trade and economic activity. The model allows us to juxtapose several scenarios with different assumptions about the strength of GDP growth going forward and the ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1017

Working Paper
Do falling iceberg costs explain recent U.S. export growth?
Alessandria, George; Choi, Horag (2012)
We study empirically and theoretically the growth of U.S. manufacturing exports from 1987 to 2007. We identify the change in iceberg costs with plant-level data on the intensity of exporting by exporters. Given this change in iceberg costs, we find that a GE model with heterogeneous establishments and a sunk cost of starting to export is consistent with both aggregate U.S. export growth and the changes in the number and size of U.S. exporters. The model also captures the non-linear dynamics of U.S. export growth. A model without a sunk export cost generates substantially less trade growth and ...
Working Papers , Paper 12-20

Journal Article
Comparing manufacturing export growth across states: what accounts for the differences?
Pollard, Patricia S.; Coughlin, Cletus C. (2001-01)
The expansion of United States manufacturing exports has spread unevenly across states. Cletus C. Coughlin and Patricia S. Pollard use shift-share analysis to account for the difference between a state?s manufacturing export growth and national manufacturing export growth between 1988 and 1998. Three effects are examined. The industry mix effect indicates that a state should have experienced export growth above the national average if its exports were relatively more concentrated in industries whose exports expanded faster than the national average. The destination effect indicates that a ...
Review , Volume 83 , Issue Jan , Pages 25-40

Journal Article
U.S. international transactions in 2000
Gagnon, Joseph E. (2001-05)
The U.S. current account deficit widened to $435 billion in 2000, a record 4.4 percent of gross domestic product, as the lagged effect of strong growth in the U.S. economy in late 1999 and early 2000 continued to drive up imports of goods and services faster than exports increased. To a lesser extent, a decline in U.S. price competitiveness also contributed to the expansion in the deficit. The $104 billion increase in the current account deficit was entirely accounted for by an equal-sized increase in the goods and services deficit. Other components of the current account moved in small and ...
Federal Reserve Bulletin , Volume 87 , Issue May

Journal Article
Small business: From main street to Mexico City
Taper, Steven (1995-10)
Small businesses seek foreign markets.
Cross Sections , Volume 12 , Issue Fall , Pages 22

Newsletter
Red meat and poultry exports continue to expand
Singer, Mike A. (1997-03)
Agricultural Letter , Issue Mar , Pages 2-3

Journal Article
Understanding the evolution of trade deficits: trade elasticities of industrialized countries
Crowley, Meredith A.; Crane, Leland D.; Quayyum, Saad (2007-10)
In this article, the authors present updated trade elasticities?measures of how much imports and exports change in response to income and price changes?for the U.S. and six other industrialized countries, collectively known as the Group of Seven. They find that the imports and exports of these countries are slightly more responsive to changes in a country?s total income over a period that ends in 2006, compared with a period that ends in 1994.
Economic Perspectives , Volume 31 , Issue Q IV , Pages 2-17

Journal Article
East Asia's impact on Twelfth District exports
Valletta, Robert G. (1998)
FRBSF Economic Letter

Speech
Regional economy and manufacturing update
Dudley, William (2010)
Remarks at the Quarterly Regional Economic Press Briefing, New York City.
Speech , Paper 28

Journal Article
On a trade mission
Davies, Phil (2003-07)
For district states, is it a pot-o-gold or a rainbow of hype at the end of a foreign trade mission?
Fedgazette , Volume 15 , Issue Jul , Pages 13-15

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