Search Results
Speech
The Economic Outlook, Monetary Policy, and Normal Policymaking Now and in the Future; 10.25.18 Money Marketeers of New York University, Inc., New York, NY
I thank the Money Marketeers of New York University for inviting me back to speak tonight. When I was here four years ago, I discussed the important role that Federal Reserve communications play in making effective monetary policy and the need for these communications to evolve as we moved from a period of extraordinary monetary policymaking to more normal policymaking. At this point, that transition to more normal policymaking has been underway for some time, reflecting the health of the U.S. economy and the progress that?s been made on the FOMC?s monetary policy goals. Tonight, I?ll talk ...
Speech
Navigating Supply Shocks
Over the last several years, the U.S. economy has faced wave after wave of supply shocks. Conventional central bank wisdom says the Fed should look past supply shocks. This approach of looking through supply shocks has worked well for a generation thanks to what economists call “anchored long-term inflation expectations.”I’ve been asking myself whether we’ve entered an era where supply shocks will become more frequent.Does the Fed have the luxury of riding out all the waves that come our way? For me, it comes down to how much businesses, consumers and inflation expectations can take.
Briefing
Understanding the Debate on the US-Europe Paradox
European countries' gross domestic products (GDPs) relative to the U.S. at current purchasing power parity (PPP) have stayed fairly constant since 2001. However, U.S. real GDP at national constant prices has grown much faster than its European counterparts. This apparent paradox can be explained by the U.S. IT boom.While these facts are not being disputed, there is a debate between economists on what this implies for European welfare. From these facts alone, it is not straightforward to conclude whether Europe is in decline or not.Statements on Europe's welfare will strongly depend on the ...
Briefing
Learning about Fiscal Policy Uncertainty
In response to the financial crisis and recession of 2007-09, the federal government enacted a number of emergency fiscal policies intended to aid recovery. These included short-term stimulus measures, such as the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, and temporary tax reductions, such as the payroll tax cut in 2010. However, the unconventional and transitory nature of these fiscal policies may have contributed to greater economic uncertainty. Given the slow recovery that has followed the recession, economists are studying how such uncertainty might impact growth.
Speech
The Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy 09.28.16 Greater Cleveland Partnership Middle-Market Forum, Cleveland, OH
It is a pleasure to welcome you to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Since my arrival in Cleveland over two years ago, I have seen first-hand the important role that the Greater Cleveland Partnership plays in supporting the growth of our regional economy and I am very proud to serve on its board. Of course, as president of one of the country?s 12 Federal Reserve Banks I have a keen interest in our regional economy. As we gather in the lobby of this historic building, it is hard not to think back to a time more than 100 years ago and applaud the Congressmen ? yes, they were all men back ...
Briefing
Goodfriend Memorial Lecture: Productivity and Structural Change
Introduced in 2023, the Goodfriend Memorial Lecture series honors the legacy of Marvin Goodfriend, long-time Richmond Fed economist, research director and senior policy advisor. The lecture was delivered as part of the Richmond Fed's Collaboration of Research Economists (CORE) Week model, which brings together Richmond Fed economists and visiting economists from a range of disciplines for seminars, conferences, networking and collaboration.
Journal Article
President's Message: How Do Small Towns Grow?
Following the Great Recession, the dominant narrative around rural communities has been one of population loss: opportunities are few, so kids leave small hometowns behind. No one moves in to replace them. And a sad but real demographic reality is that an older population means larger natural population losses, as well.
Speech
The Mysterious U.S. Economy
If you too like a good mystery, then you like the U.S. economy.How has the U.S. economy remained so resilient despite a slew of challenges? A big part of the answer lies with the consumer. Consumer spending makes up nearly 70 percent of GDP and despite the turmoil, consumers have kept spending.Why is investment so robust amid such challenging conditions? It’s not only data centers. Many business leaders explain they’ve concluded high uncertainty is the new baseline. They can’t afford to wait any longer.How can unemployment be so low when the news feels so bad? In addition to the ...
COVID-19: What Do FREDcast Users Think about Economic Growth?
Professional forecasts abound, but what does the general public think will happen with the economy?
Speech
Tuning In: 2026 Outlook
Both sides of our mandate bear watching. Unemployment remains low on a historic basis but has ticked up. Inflation has come down but remains above target.Going forward, policy will require finely tuned judgments balancing progress on each side of our mandate.