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Working Paper
Earnings Business Cycles: The Covid Recession, Recovery, and Policy Response
Splinter, David; Larrimore, Jeff; Mortenson, Jacob (2023-01-06)
Using a panel of tax data, we follow the earnings of individuals over business cycles. Compared to prior recessions, the Covid policy response and recovery were far more progressive. Among workers starting in the bottom quintile, median real earnings including fiscal relief increased 66 percent in 2020 and earnings increases offset relief decreases in the 2021 recovery. After the prior two recessions, this measure had decreased by 24 percent. Among those starting in the top quintile, median and average real earnings were approximately unchanged. This difference from prior recessions is ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2023-004

Working Paper
Small Business Lending Under the PPP and PPPLF Programs
Lopez, Jose A.; Spiegel, Mark M. (2021-04-08)
We examine the effects of the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) and the PPP Liquidity Facility (PPPLF) on small business lending. The PPP was launched under the CARES Act of March 2020 to provide support for small businesses under the COVID-19 pandemic, while the PPPLF was an affiliated program administered by the Federal Reserve to facilitate the maintenance of liquidity among banks participating in the PPP. We use Call Report data to examine the contributions of these two programs on small business and farm lending by individual commercial banks in the United States. As participation in the ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2021-10

Working Paper
(Re-)Connecting Inflation and the Labor Market: A Tale of Two Curves
Ahn, Hie Joo; Rudd, Jeremy B. (2024-07-11)
We propose an empirical framework in which shocks to worker reallocation, aggregate activity, and labor supply drive the joint dynamics of labor market outcomes and inflation, and where reallocation shocks take two forms depending on whether they result from quits or from job loss. In order to link our approach with previous theoretical and empirical work, we extend the procedure for estimating a Bayesian sign-restricted VAR so that priors can be directly imposed on the VAR's impact matrix. We find that structural shocks that shift the Beveridge curve have different effects on inflation. ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2024-050

Potential Jobs Impacted by Covid-19: An Update
http://fedora:8080/fcrepo/rest/objects/authors/; Faberman, R. Jason; Aaronson, Daniel (2020-04-09)
This blog post updates our earlier analysis of the potential jobs impacted by Covid-19. The update reflects three adjustments to the original analysis. First, we updated our guesses on the shares of each industry employed and working at still-operating businesses based on the Labor Department’s March Employment Situation report. Second, we use an updated model to estimate the possible June unemployment rates from initial unemployment insurance claims data (the model details are found here. Finally, we use unemployment rate predictions that incorporate the data from the April 2 report on ...
Midwest Economy Blog

Journal Article
The Great Resignation and the Paycheck Protection Program
Sahin, Aysegul; Tasci, Murat (2022-11-09)
A prominent feature of the US labor markets during the recovery from the COVID-19 recession was a high level of worker separations in the form of quits. This phenomenon, sometimes referred to as the Great Resignation, cannot be fully explained by the strength of the recovery. We show that firms that employ fewer than 250 individuals played a disproportionately larger role in generating excess quits during this episode. We further argue that the availability of Paycheck Protection Program funds might have prevented some “usual” reallocation from happening early on and thus subsequently ...
Economic Commentary , Volume 2022 , Issue 15 , Pages 5

Financial Positions of U.S. Public Corporations: Part 2, The Covid-19 Earnings Shock
Gourio, Francois; Crouzet, Nicolas (2020-05-12)
This blog is the second in a series that discusses how the current pandemic affects the financial positions of publicly traded U.S. corporations, the potential implications of these financial developments, and the federal policy response. The first blog discussed the financial positions before the pandemic started. It documented that many nonfinancial publicly traded companies entered 2020 with historically elevated levels of leverage. This second blog explains how we use stock returns to project the potential earnings losses due to Covid-19; this will be used in our next blog to project the ...
Chicago Fed Insights

Journal Article
COVID-19 and Education: An Updated Survey of the Research
Hinrichs, Peter (2023-08-22)
This Economic Commentary surveys research on COVID-19 in relation to education in the United States. It is a companion to an earlier survey (Hinrichs, 2021) and focuses on the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic that might persist even after life has returned to a relative normal. The evidence suggests that the pandemic led to lower enrollment at public schools and negatively impacted student learning. In addition, teacher turnover did not rise at the beginning of the pandemic, but it has risen in the years since.
Economic Commentary , Volume 2023 , Issue 15 , Pages 5

Journal Article
The Impacts of Supply Chain Disruptions on Inflation
Gordon, Matthew V.; Clark, Todd E. (2023-05-10)
Since early 2021, inflation has consistently exceeded the Federal Reserve’s target of 2 percent. Using a combination of data, economic theory, and narrative information around historical events, we empirically assess what has caused persistently elevated inflation. Our estimates suggest that both aggregate demand and supply factors, including supply chain disruptions, have contributed significantly to high inflation.
Economic Commentary , Volume 2023 , Issue 08 , Pages 8

A Closer Look at the Correlation Between Google Trends and Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
Fogarty, Michael; Butters, R. Andrew; Brave, Scott A. (2020-06-17)
Since the onset of the pandemic, there has been growing interest in tracking labor market activity with “big data” sources like Google Trends.1 Just as an example, one can track how the number of Google searches with the term unemployment office has changed over the past week for the Chicago metro area or explore how unemployment became one of the top searched issues across the U.S. during the early months of the pandemic here.
Chicago Fed Insights

Working Paper
Usual Shocks in our Usual Models
Ferroni, Filippo; Fisher, Jonas D. M.; Melosi, Leonardo (2022-09-06)
We propose an event-study research design to identify the nature and propagation of large unusual shocks in DSGE models and apply it to study the macroeconomic effects of the Covid shock. The initial outbreak is represented as the onset of a new shock process where the shock loads on wedges associated with the model's usual shocks. Realizations of the Covid shock come with news about its propagation, allowing us to disentangle the role of beliefs about the future of the pandemic. The model attributes a crucial role to the novel Covid shock in explaining the large contraction in output in the ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP 2022-39

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