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Discussion Paper
The Impact of the Corporate Credit Facilities
Boyarchenko, Nina; Kovner, Anna; Shachar, Or (2020-10-01)
American companies have raised almost $1 trillion in the U.S. corporate bond market since March. If companies had been unable to refinance those bonds, their inability to repay may have led to an immediate default on all of their obligations, creating a cascade of defaults and layoffs. Based on Compustat data, an inability to access public bond markets could have affected companies employing more than 16 million people. In this post, we document the impact of the Primary Market and Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facilities (PMCCF and SMCCF) on bond market functioning, summarizing a ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20201001

Social Distancing, but Mostly during the Workweek?
Gascon, Charles S.; Bokun, Kathryn (2020-05-26)
Analyzing a new index from the Dallas Fed shows that a key component of social distancing—staying at home—seems to be happening nationally during the week but not as much on the weekends.
On the Economy

Journal Article
Unintended Consequences of Coronavirus-Related Unemployment Insurance Tax Laws
Amburgey, Aaron; Birinci, Serdar (2020-04-17)
Waived employer payroll tax increases for state unemployment insurance appear to have increased layoffs.
Economic Synopses , Issue 21

Journal Article
Racial and Ethnic Disparities in Access to COVID-19 Relief
Gutkowski, Violeta A. (2022-07-26)
Unequal access to relief programs may help explain why LMI communities of color were more likely to report pandemic-related disruptions than white LMI communities.
Economic Synopses

Speech
U.S. Macroeconomic Performance during the Pandemic with Three Topics for Future Research
Bullard, James B. (2021-08-30)
Speech

Discussion Paper
Who’s Ready to Spend? Constrained Consumption across the Income Distribution
Dam, David; Melcangi, Davide; Pilossoph, Laura; Schirmer, Will (2021-05-13)
Spending on goods and services that were constrained during the pandemic is expected to grow at a fast pace as the economy reopens. In this post, we look at detailed spending data to track which consumption categories were the most constrained by the pandemic due to social distancing. We find that, in 2019, high-income households typically spent relatively more on these pandemic-constrained goods and services. Our findings suggest that these consumers may have strongly reduced consumption during the pandemic and will likely play a crucial role in unleashing pent-up demand when pandemic ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20210513b

Speech
A Return to Operating with Abundant Reserves
Logan, Lorie (2020-12-01)
Remarks before the Money Marketeers of New York University (delivered via videoconference).
Speech

Working Paper
Forecasting in the Absence of Precedent
Ho, Paul (2021-06-16)
We survey approaches to macroeconomic forecasting during the COVID-19 pandemic. Due to the unprecedented nature of the episode, there was greater dependence on information outside the econometric model, captured through either adjustments to the model or additional data. The transparency and flexibility of assumptions were especially important for interpreting real-time forecasts and updating forecasts as new data were observed. With data available at the time of writing, we show how various assumptions were violated and how these systematically biased forecasts.
Working Paper , Paper 21-10

Report
Consumers Anticipate Long-Lasting Impact from Financial Damage
Madigan, Kathleen; Akana, Tom (2020-06-01)
As part of its effort to understand the economic impact of the pandemic, the Consumer Finance Institute (CFI) surveyed consumers about their economic situations and attitudes. Many of the findings echoed the severe job losses and paycheck disruptions found in the government data and media coverage. A new and interesting takeaway of the survey, however, is the cautious view going forward: When we surveyed consumers in April, a significant share of respondents did not think their finances would recover soon. Many expected to need to decrease their spending or to seek financial assistance in ...
Consumer Finance Institute Research Briefs and Special Reports

Auto Industry on Road to Recovery from Pandemic
Di, Wenhua; http://fedora:8080/fcrepo/rest/objects/authors/ (2020-10-13)
After a series of disruptions in March and April that coincided with the widespread outbreak in the U.S., the auto industry has entered a recovery period, though its path forward remains uncertain.
Dallas Fed Economics

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