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Discussion Paper
Reasonable Seasonals? Seasonal Echoes in Economic Data after COVID-19
Seasonal adjustment is a key statistical procedure underlying the creation of many economic series. Large economic shocks, such as the 2007-09 downturn, can generate lasting seasonal echoes in subsequent data. In this Liberty Street Economics post, we discuss the prospects for these echo effects after last year’s sharp economic contraction by focusing on the payroll employment series published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). We note that seasonal echoes may lead the official numbers to overstate actual changes in payroll employment modestly between March and July of this year ...
Newsletter
Exploring the Dynamics of Unemployment
Unemployment dynamics influence people’s reasons for entering the labor market and their behavior within it. This article uses Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Consumer Population Survey (CPS) data to examine labor market trends and the experiences of new entrants, re-entrants, job leavers, and job losers, highlighting how each group's behavior differs over time and during economic downturns. It emphasizes the impact of recessions on overall unemployment rates and cyclical sensitivity: This understanding can help policymakers and businesses make informed decisions and foster growth while ...