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Conference Paper
International payments imbalances in Japan, Germany, and the United States
Marchese, Grazia; Branson, William H. (1988)
Conference Series ; [Proceedings] , Volume 32 , Pages 19-57

Report
Modelling U.S. services trade flows: a cointegration-ECM approach
Viana, Sandra; Hung, Juann H. (1995)
The U.S. service surplus soared from near zero in 1985 to about $60 billion in 1992, offsetting about two thirds of the goods trade deficit. Could this merely reflect improvement in data collection? Or does this mean U.S. services industries are more competitive internationally than goods industries? Is the services surplus likely to continue to rise? This paper estimates a forecastable model of U.S. services trade to address the above questions. We find that data improvement actually had a negative net impact on the services surplus, since it affected imports more than exports. Instead, the ...
Research Paper , Paper 9518

Conference Paper
Understanding China's capital productivity and flow
Xu, Lixin Colin (2006)
The evidence from China (and India) suggests that regional variations in FDI inflow and marginal productivity of capital can readily be explained by some of the usual and un-usual suspects: tax burden, corruption, expected growth rate, infrastructure, access to finance, court and custom efficiency, and quality of life. Given the vast variations in all these dimensions in various regions in China due to the decentralized nature and geography, the large variations in capital-labor ratio and marginal product of capital are perhaps not too difficult to rationalize. The fact that MPK depends on ...
Conference Series ; [Proceedings] , Volume 51

Working Paper
How long can the unsustainable U.S. current account deficit be sustained?
Bertaut, Carol C.; Kamin, Steven B.; Thomas, Charles P. (2008)
This paper addresses three questions about the prospects for the U.S. current account deficit. Is it sustainable in the long term? If not, how long will it take for measures of external debt and debt service to reach levels that could prompt some pullback by global investors? And if and when such levels are breached, how readily would asset prices respond and the current account start to narrow? ; To address these questions, we start with projections of a detailed partial-equilibrium model of the U.S. balance of payments. Based on plausible assumptions of the key drivers of the U.S. external ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 935

Journal Article
U.S. international transactions: trends in 1960-67
anonymous (1968-04)
Federal Reserve Bulletin , Issue Apr

Working Paper
Asset prices, exchange rates and the current account
Sarno, Lucio; Fratzscher, Marcel; Juvenal, Luciana (2008)
This paper analyses the role of asset prices in comparison to other factors, in particular exchange rates, as a driver of the US trade balance. It employs a Bayesian structural VAR model that requires imposing only a minimum of economically meaningful sign restrictions. We find that equity market shocks and housing price shocks have been major determinants of the US current account in the past, accounting for up to 32% of the movements of the US trade balance at a horizon of 20 quarters. By contrast, shocks to the real exchange rate have been much less relevant, explaining less than 7% and ...
Working Papers , Paper 2008-031

Working Paper
Testing Present Value Models of the Current Account: A Cautionary Note
Kasa, Kenneth (2000-12-31)
Following Campbell (1987) and Campbell and Shiller (1987), many papers have evaluated the intertemporal approach to the current account by testing restrictions on a Vector Autoregression (VAR). The attractiveness of the Campbell-Shiller methodology is that it is thought to be immune to omitted information. This paper uses results from Hansen and Sargent (1991a) and Quah (1990) to show that this is not true in certain (empirically plausible) situations. In particular, it is shown that if fundamentals are driven by unobserved (to the econometrician) permanent and transitory components, then the ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2000-12

Conference Paper
Which marbles?: comments on \\"Losing our marbles in the new century? The great rebalancing in historical perspective\\" by C. M. Meissner and A. N. Taylor
Helliwell, John F. (2006)
Meissner and Taylor do a splendid job of making the history of the last great globalization relevant to the current great rebalancing. In their admirably understated way, they have argued that there is no credible evidence supporting the status quo, and have shown that the savings and investment patterns that mark today?s US current account deficit pose more problems for adjustment than were faced when the offshoot countries reversed their current account deficits so painlessly a century ago. I agree with them on both counts, and have learned much from their evidence and explanations.
Conference Series ; [Proceedings] , Volume 51

Discussion Paper
Fiscal policy, productivity shocks, and the U.S. trade balance deficit
Kollmann, Robert (1995)
A two-country Real Business Cycle (RBC) model is used to study the behavior of the United States trade balance. In this model, economic fluctuations are driven by productivity shocks and by variations in government purchases and in distorting taxes. The model is simulated using quarterly data on total factor productivity, government purchases, and the average tax rate in the seven major industrial countries during the period 197591. A version of the model that postulates complete international asset marketsas frequently assumed in the International RBC literature (see, e.g., Backus, Kehoe, ...
Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics , Paper 98

Speech
The global saving glut and the U.S. current account deficit
Bernanke, Ben S. (2005)
a speech at the Sandridge Lecture, Virginia Association of Economics, Richmond, Virginia, March 10, 2005 and the Homer Jones Lecture, St. Louis, Missouri, on April 14, 2005
Speech , Paper 77

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