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Working Paper
Eviction Risk of Rental Housing: Does It Matter How Your Landlord Finances the Property?
Lopez, Luis; An, Xudong; Ambrose, Brent W.
(2021-02-11)
We show, using a stylized model, how the financing choice of landlords can impact eviction decisions in rental markets. Since multifamily loans rely on timely cash flows from tenants, strict underwriting factors can increase the chances that landlords are able to weather income shocks. Lender provided relief may create further leeway for landlords to work out a deal with tenants who default on rental payments. Using comprehensive data on nationwide evictions in the U.S. and performance records on multifamily mortgages, we confirm predictions from our model by documenting a negative ...
Working Papers
, Paper 21-05
Working Paper
U.S. Housing as a Global Safe Asset: Evidence from China Shocks
Barcelona, William; Wong, Anna; Converse, Nathan L.
(2021-11-12)
This paper demonstrates that the measured stock of China's holding of U.S. assets could be much higher than indicated by the U.S. net international investment position data due to unrecorded historical Chinese inflows into an increasingly popular global safe haven asset: U.S. residential real estate. We first use aggregate capital flows data to show that the increase in unrecorded capital inflows in the U.S. balance of payment accounts over the past decade is mainly linked to inflows from China into U.S. housing markets. Then, using a unique web traffic dataset that provides a direct measure ...
International Finance Discussion Papers
, Paper 1332
Working Paper
Agglomeration in the European Automobile Supplier Industry
McMillen, Daniel P.; Klier, Thomas H.
(2013-11-01)
Motor vehicle and motor vehicle parts production plants tend to exhibit a strong degree of agglomeration. This paper estimates a spatial model utilizing detailed plant-level data that is pooled across seven countries in Europe. The paper makes several contributions. First, we assemble a set of nearly 1,800 European plant locations of the largest motor vehicle parts suppliers, as well as the location of all light vehicle assembly plants operational in 2010. Second, we obtain detailed spatial data ? at a higher resolution than what is provided by the NUTS-3 regions ? for five European countries ...
Working Paper Series
, Paper WP-2013-15
Newsletter
Interest-only mortgages and speculation in hot housing markets
Barlevy, Gadi; Fisher, Jonas D. M.
(2020-05-28)
Even as housing markets have temporarily shut down across the U.S. during the Covid-19 pandemic, housing remains a key sector that contributes disproportionately to fluctuations in overall economic activity and that will likely play an important role as the economy reopens. Interest in this market among research economists and policymakers intensified after the exceptional boom and bust in housing between 2003 and 2008. In this Chicago Fed Letter, we describe research in Barlevy and Fisher (2020)1 that examined patterns in the kinds of mortgages homebuyers took out in different cities during ...
Chicago Fed Letter
, Issue 439
, Pages 6
Working Paper
Financing Affordable and Sustainable Homeownership with Fixed-COFI Mortgages
Passmore, Wayne; von Hafften, Alexander H.
(2018-02-05)
The 30-year fixed-rate fully amortizing mortgage (or ?traditional fixed-rate mortgage?) was a substantial innovation when first developed during the Great Depression. However, it has three major flaws. First, because homeowner equity accumulates slowly during the first decade, homeowners are essentially renting their homes from lenders. With this sluggish equity accumulation, many lenders require large down payments. Second, in each monthly mortgage payment, homeowners substantially compensate capital markets investors for the ability to prepay. The homeowners might have better uses for this ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
, Paper 2018-009
Report
Effects of Financing Constraints on Maintenance Investments in Rent-Stabilized Apartments
Seltzer, Lee
(2021-12-01)
This paper studies whether financing constraints adversely affect renters by reducing maintenance. Consistent with a sensitivity of maintenance to financial resources, housing code violations increased after a change in the law that effectively decreased cash flows available to maintain some rent stabilized buildings in New York City. The effect is most severe when financing constraints are present. Moreover, results of panel regressions using a dataset of 45 cities obtained with Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests are consistent with a hypothesis that buildings with higher LTV ratio ...
Staff Reports
, Paper 1000
Working Paper
Detecting Periods of Exuberance: A Look at the Role of Aggregation with an Application to House Prices
Martinez-Garcia, Enrique; Grossman, Valerie; Pavlidis, Efthymios
(2017-08-01)
The recently developed SADF and GSADF unit root tests of Phillips et al. (2011) and Phillips et al. (2015) have become popular in the literature for detecting exuberance in asset prices. In this paper, we examine through simulation experiments the effect of cross-sectional aggregation on the power properties of these tests. The simulation design considered is based on actual housing data for both U.S. metropolitan and international housing markets and thus allows us to draw conclusions for different levels of aggregation. Our findings suggest that aggregation lowers the power of both the SADF ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers
, Paper 325
Report
Financial frictions, real estate collateral, and small firm activity in Europe
Blickle, Kristian S.; Banerjee, Ryan N.
(2018-10-01)
We observe significant heterogeneity in the correlation between changes in house prices and the growth of small firms across certain countries in Europe. We find that, overall, the correlation is far greater in Southern Europe than in Northern Europe. Using a simple model, we show that this heterogeneity may relate to financial frictions in a country. We confirm the model?s propositions in a number of empirical analyses for the following countries in Northern and Southern Europe: the United Kingdom, Norway, France, Italy, Spain, and Portugal. Small firms in countries with higher financial ...
Staff Reports
, Paper 868
Report
Local banks, credit supply, and house prices
Blickle, Kristian S.
(2018-11-01)
I study the effects of an increase in the supply of local mortgage credit on local house prices and employment by exploiting a natural experiment from Switzerland. In mid-2008, losses in U.S. security holdings triggered a migration of dissatisfied retail customers from a large, universal bank, UBS, to homogeneous local mortgage lenders. Mortgage lenders located close to UBS branches experienced larger inflows of deposits, regardless of their investment opportunities. Using variation in the geographic distance between UBS branches and local mortgage lenders as an instrument for deposit growth, ...
Staff Reports
, Paper 874
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