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Working Paper
Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest : International Trends and Determinants
Holston, Kathryn; Williams, John C.; Laubach, Thomas (2016-08-19)
U.S. estimates of the natural rate of interest ? the real short-term interest rate that would prevail absent transitory disturbances ? have declined dramatically since the start of the global financial crisis. For example, estimates using the Laubach-Williams (2003) model indicate the natural rate in the United States fell to close to zero during the crisis and has remained there through the end of 2015. Explanations for this decline include shifts in demographics, a slowdown in trend productivity growth, and global factors affecting real interest rates. This paper applies the ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2016-073

Working Paper
Risk, Financial Development and Firm Dynamics
Morais, Bernardo (2015-05-06)
I document that the average productivity of firms tends to increase, and its variance to decrease, as they age. These two facts combined suggest that managers learn to reduce their mistakes as they operate. I develop a quantitative framework mimicking these dynamics and find that young firms have substantially higher financing costs due to lower and riskier returns. In this scenario, a reduction in the financial development of an economy raises disproportionately the cost of credit of young-productive firms increasing the input misallocation within this subgroup. To test the validity of the ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1134

Working Paper
Do Sovereign Wealth Funds Dampen the Negative Effects of Commodity Price Volatility?
Raissi, Mehdi; Mohaddes, Kamiar (2017-02-01)
This paper studies the impact of commodity terms of trade (CToT) volatility on economic growth (and its sources) in a sample of 69 commodity-dependent countries, and assesses the role of Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs) and quality of institutions in their long-term growth performance. Using annual data over the period 1981-2014, we employ the Cross-Sectionally augmented Autoregressive Distributive Lag (CS-ARDL) methodology for estimation to account for cross-country heterogeneity, cross-sectional dependence, and feedback effects. We find that while CToT volatility exerts a negative impact on ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 304

Working Paper
The Growth Effects of El Niño and La Niña: Local Weather Conditions Matter
Damette, Olivier; Couharde, Cécile; Generoso , Rémi; Mohaddes, Kamiar (2019-11-29)
This paper contributes to the climate-economy literature by analyzing the role of weather patterns in influencing the transmission of global climate cycles to economic growth. More specifically, we focus on El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events and their interactions with local weather conditions, taking into account the heterogeneous and cumulative effects of weather patterns on economic growth and the asymmetry and nonlinearity in the global influence of ENSO on economic activity. Using data on 75 countries over the period 1975-2014, we provide evidence for the negative growth effects ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 374

Working Paper
The Alpha Beta Gamma of the Labor Market
Menzio, Guido; Wiczer, David; Gregory, Victoria (2021-04-01)
Based on patterns of employment transitions, we identify three different types of workers in the US labor market: α’s β’s and γ’s. Workers of type α make up over half of all workers, are most likely to remain on the same job for more than 2 years and, when they become unemployed, typically find a new job within 1 quarter. Workers of type γ comprise less than one-fifth of workers, have a low probability of staying on the same job for more than 2 years and, when they become unemployed, face a high probability of remaining jobless for more than 1 year. Workers of type β are in ...
Working Papers , Paper 2021-003

Working Paper
Financing Ventures
Greenwood, Jeremy; Sanchez, Juan M.; Han, Pengfei (2020-04)
The relationship between venture capital and growth is examined using an endogenous growth model incorporating dynamic contracts between entrepreneurs and venture capitalists. At each stage of Önancing, venture capitalists evaluate the viability of startups. If viable, venture capitalists provide funding for the next stage. The success of a project depends on the amount of funding. The model is confronted with stylized facts about venture capital: viz., statistics for each round of funding that concern the success rates, failure rates, investment rates, equity shares, and IPO values. ...
Working Papers , Paper 2017-035

Report
Human capital and economic activity in urban America
Gabe, Todd M.; Abel, Jaison R. (2008-07-01)
We examine the relationship between human capital and economic activity in U.S. metropolitan areas, extending the literature in two ways. First, we utilize new data on metropolitan area GDP to measure economic activity. Results show that a one-percentage-point increase in the proportion of residents with a college degree is associated with about a 2 percent increase in metropolitan area GDP per capita. Second, we develop measures of human capital that reflect the types of knowledge within U.S. metropolitan areas. Regional knowledge stocks related to the provision of producer services and ...
Staff Reports , Paper 332

Report
Combinatorial Growth with Physical Constraints: Evidence from Electronic Miniaturization
Azar, Pablo (2021-05-01)
In the past sixty years, transistor sizes and weights have decreased by 50 percent every eighteen months, following Moore’s Law. Smaller and lighter electronics have increased productivity in virtually every industry and spurred the creation of entirely new sectors of the economy. However, while the effect of the increasing quality of computers and electronics on GDP has been widely studied, the question of how electronic miniaturization affects economic growth has been unexplored. To quantify the effect of electronic miniaturization on GDP, this paper builds an economic growth model that ...
Staff Reports , Paper 970

Working Paper
Firm-Embedded Productivity and Cross-Country Income Differences
Cravino, Javier; Alviarez, Vanessa; Ramondo, Natalia (2020-10-13)
We measure the contribution of firm-embedded productivity to cross-country income differences. By firm-embedded productivity we refer to the components of productivity that differ across firms and that can be transferred internationally, such as blueprints, management practices, and intangible capital. Our approach relies on microlevel data on the cross-border operations of multinational enterprises (MNEs). We compare the market shares of the exact same MNE in different countries and document that they are about four times larger in developing than in high-income countries. This finding ...
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers , Paper 39

Working Paper
Long-Term Macroeconomic Effects of Climate Change: A Cross-Country Analysis
Pesaran, M. Hashem; Raissi, Mehdi; Yang, Jui-Chung; Mohaddes, Kamiar; Kahn, Matthew E.; Engelhardt, Bryan (2019-07-01)
We study the long-term impact of climate change on economic activity across countries, using a stochastic growth model where labor productivity is affected by country-specific climate variables?defined as deviations of temperature and precipitation from their historical norms. Using a panel data set of 174 countries over the years 1960 to 2014, we find that per-capita real output growth is adversely affected by persistent changes in the temperature above or below its historical norm, but we do not obtain any statistically significant effects for changes in precipitation. Our counterfactual ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 365

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