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Working Paper
The Alpha Beta Gamma of the Labor Market
Menzio, Guido; Wiczer, David; Gregory, Victoria (2021-04-01)
Based on patterns of employment transitions, we identify three different types of workers in the US labor market: α’s β’s and γ’s. Workers of type α make up over half of all workers, are most likely to remain on the same job for more than 2 years and, when they become unemployed, typically find a new job within 1 quarter. Workers of type γ comprise less than one-fifth of workers, have a low probability of staying on the same job for more than 2 years and, when they become unemployed, face a high probability of remaining jobless for more than 1 year. Workers of type β are in ...
Working Papers , Paper 2021-003

Working Paper
Dale W. Jorgenson: An Intellectual Biography
Fernald, John G. (2022-03-30)
Dale W. Jorgenson has been a central contributor to a wide range of economic and policy issues over a long and productive career. His research is characterized by a tight integration of economic theory, appropriate data that matches the theory, and sound econometrics. His groundbreaking work on the theory and empirics of investment established the research path for the economics profession. He is a founder of modern growth accounting: Official statistics in many countries, including the United States, implement Jorgenson’s methods. Relatedly, without Jorgenson’s unflagging efforts, ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2022-08

Journal Article
Venture Capital: A Catalyst for Innovation and Growth
Greenwood, Jeremy; Han, Pengfei; Sanchez, Juan M. (2022)
This article studies the development of the venture capital (VC) industry in the United States and assesses how VC financing affects firm innovation and growth. The results highlight the essential role of VC financing for U.S. innovation and growth and suggest that VC development in other countries could promote their economic growth.
Review , Volume 104 , Issue 2 , Pages 120-130

Working Paper
The Propagation of Monetary Policy Shocks in a Heterogeneous Production Economy
Schoenle, Raphael; Pasten, Ernesto (2019-11-15)
Realistic heterogeneity in price rigidity interacts with heterogeneity in sectoral size and input-output linkages in the transmission of monetary policy shocks. Quantitatively, heterogeneity in price stickiness is the central driver for real effects. Input-output linkages and consumption shares alter the identity of the most important sectors to the transmission. Reducing the number of sectors decreases monetary non-neutrality with a similar impact response of inflation. Hence, the initial response of inflation to monetary shocks is not sufficient to discriminate across models and ignoring ...
Working Papers , Paper 19-25

Working Paper
Innovation and Trade Policy in a Globalized World
Akcigit, Ufuk; Impullitti, Giammario; Ates, Sina T. (2018-06-15)
How do import tariffs and R&D subsidies help domestic firms compete globally? How do these policies affect aggregate growth and economic welfare? To answer these questions, we build a dynamic general equilibrium growth model where firm innovation endogenously determines the dynamics of technology, market leadership, and trade flows, in a world with two large open economies at different stages of development. Firms? R&D decisions are driven by (i) the defensive innovation motive, (ii) the expansionary innovation motive, and (iii) technology spillovers. The theoretical investigation illustrates ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1230

Working Paper
Escaping the Middle-Income Trap: A Cross-Country Analysis on the Patterns of Industrial Upgrading
Wen, Yi; Wang, Lili (2018-01-16)
With rapid industrial upgrading along the global value chain of manufactured goods, China has transformed, within one generation, from an impoverished agrarian society to a middle-income nation as well as the largest manufacturing powerhouse in the world. This article identifies the pattern of China?s industrial upgrading and compares it with those of other successfully industrialized economies and the failed ones. We find that (i) China (since 1978) followed essentially the same path of industrial upgrading as that of Japan and the ?Asian Tigers.? These economies succeeded in catching up ...
Working Papers , Paper 2018-1

Working Paper
The Alpha Beta Gamma of the Labor Market
Menzio, Guido; Wiczer, David; Gregory, Victoria (2022-05)
Using a large panel dataset of US workers, we calibrate a search-theoretic model of the labor market, where workers are heterogeneous with respect to the parameters governing their employment transitions. We first approximate heterogeneity with a discrete number of latent types, and then calibrate type-specific parameters by matching type-specific moments. Heterogeneity is well approximated by 3 types: αs, βs and γs. Workers of type α find employment quickly because they have large gains from trade, and stick to their jobs because their productivity is similar across jobs. Workers of type ...
Working Papers , Paper 2021-003

Working Paper
Externalities, Endogenous Productivity, and Poverty Traps
DiCecio, Riccardo; Barseghyan, Levon (2008)
We present a version of the neoclassical model with an endogenous industry structure. We construct a distribution of firms? productivity that implies multiple steady-state equilibria even with an arbitrarily small degree of increasing returns to scale. While the most productive firms operate across all the steady states, in a poverty trap less productive firms operate as well. This results in lower average firm productivity and total factor productivity. The distributions of employment by firm size across steady states are consistent with the empirical observation that poor countries have a ...
Working Papers , Paper 2008-023

Working Paper
Do Sovereign Wealth Funds Dampen the Negative Effects of Commodity Price Volatility?
Raissi, Mehdi; Mohaddes, Kamiar (2017-02-01)
This paper studies the impact of commodity terms of trade (CToT) volatility on economic growth (and its sources) in a sample of 69 commodity-dependent countries, and assesses the role of Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs) and quality of institutions in their long-term growth performance. Using annual data over the period 1981-2014, we employ the Cross-Sectionally augmented Autoregressive Distributive Lag (CS-ARDL) methodology for estimation to account for cross-country heterogeneity, cross-sectional dependence, and feedback effects. We find that while CToT volatility exerts a negative impact on ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 304

Working Paper
The Propagation of Monetary Policy Shocks in a Heterogeneous Production Economy
Schoenle, Raphael; Weber, Michael; Pasten, Ernesto (2020-01-15)
Realistic heterogeneity in price rigidity interacts with heterogeneity in sectoral size and input-output linkages in the transmission of monetary policy shocks. Quantitatively, heterogeneity in price stickiness is the central driver for real effects. Input-output linkages and consumption shares alter the identity of the most important sectors to the transmission. Reducing the number of sectors decreases monetary non-neutrality with a similar impact response of inflation. Hence, the initial response of inflation to monetary shocks is not sufficient to discriminate across models and ignoring ...
Working Papers , Paper 19-25R

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