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Working Paper
Job Heterogeneity and Aggregate Labor Market Fluctuations
Krolikowski, Pawel (2019-02-01)
This paper disciplines a model with search over match quality using microeconomic evidence on worker mobility patterns and wage dynamics. In addition to capturing these individual data, the model provides an explanation for aggregate labor market patterns. Poor match quality among first jobs implies large fluctuations in unemployment due to a responsive job destruction margin. Endogenous job destruction generates a burst of layoffs at the onset of a recession and, together with on-the-job search, generates a negative comovement between unemployment and vacancies. A significant job ladder, ...
Working Papers , Paper 19-04

Working Paper
Job-Finding and Job-Losing: A Comprehensive Model of Heterogeneous Individual Labor-Market Dynamics
Hall, Robert E.; Kudlyak, Marianna (2020-01-14)
We study the paths over time that individuals follow in the labor market, as revealed in the monthly Current Population Survey. Some people face much higher flow values from work than in a non-market activity; if they lose a job, they find another soon. Others have close to equal flow values and tend to circle through jobs, search, and non-market activities. And yet others have flow values for non-market activities that are higher than those in the market, and do not work. We develop a model that identifies and quantifies heterogeneity in dynamic individual behavior. Our model provides a ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2019-5

Working Paper
Employment Dynamics in a Signaling Model with Workers' Incentives
Weingarden, Alison E. (2017-04)
Many firms adjust employment in a "lumpy" manner -- infrequently and in large bursts. In this paper, I show that lumpy adjustments can arise from concerns about the incentives of remaining workers. Specifically, I develop a model in which a firm's productivity depends on its workers' effort and workers' income prospects depend on the firm's profitability. I use this model to analyze the consequences of demand shocks that are observed by the firm but not by its workers, who can only try to infer the firm's profitability from its employment decisions. I show that the resulting signaling model ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2017-040

Report
Micro and Macro Effects of UI Policies: Evidence from Missouri
Karahan, Fatih; Mitman, Kurt; Moore, Brendan (2019-12-01)
We develop a method to jointly measure the response of worker search effort (micro effect) and vacancy creation (macro effect) to changes in the duration of unemployment insurance (UI) benefits. To implement this approach, we exploit an unexpected cut in UI durations in Missouri and provide quasi-experimental evidence on the effect of UI on the labor market. The data indicate that the cut in Missouri significantly increased job finding rates by both raising the search effort of unemployed workers and the availability of jobs. The latter accounts for at least one half of the total effect.
Staff Reports , Paper 905

Working Paper
Set it and Forget it? Financing Retirement in an Age of Defaults
Goodman, Lucas; Mukherjee, Anita; Ramnath, Shanthi (2022-10-19)
Retirement savings abandonment is a rising concern connected to defined contribution systems and default enrollment. We use tax data on Individual RetirementAccounts (IRAs) to establish that for a recent cohort, 0.4% of retirement-age individuals abandoned an aggregate of $66 million, proxied by a failure to claim over ten years after a legal requirement to do so. Analysis of state unclaimed property databases suggests that workplace defined contribution plans are abandoned at a higher rate than IRAs. Finally, regression discontinuity estimates show that certain accounts created by default ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP 2022-50

Working Paper
Labor Market Tightness during WWI and the Postwar Recession of 1920-1921
Anderson, Haelim; Chang, Jin-Wook (2022-08-01)
The U.S. economy entered the 1920s with a robust job market and high inflation but fell into a recession following the Federal Reserve's discount rate hikes to tame inflation. Using a newly constructed data set, we study labor market dynamics during this period. We find that labor markets were tight when the Federal Reserve began tightening monetary policy, but they became loose following the tightening as the recession deepened. The demand-supply imbalance in the labor market was driven by a sharp decline in the number of job openings. We also show that the recession had an uneven effect on ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2022-049

Working Paper
Job-to-Job Flows and the Consequences of Job Separations
McEntarfer, Erika; Haltiwanger, John; Fallick, Bruce; http://fedora:8080/fcrepo/rest/objects/authors/ (2019-12-13)
A substantial empirical literature documents large and persistent average earnings losses following job displacement. Our paper extends the literature on displaced workers by providing a comprehensive picture of earnings and employment outcomes for all workers who separate. We show that for workers not recalled to their previous employer, earnings losses follow separations in general, as opposed to displacements in particular. The key predictor of earnings losses is not displacement but the length of the nonemployment spell following job separation. Moreover, displaced workers are no more ...
Working Papers , Paper 19-27

Working Paper
Employer Reallocation During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Validation and Application of a Do-It-Yourself CPS
Bick, Alexander; Blandin, Adam (2022-05-03)
Economists have recently begun using independent online surveys to collect national labor market data. Questions remain over the quality of such data. This paper provides an approach to address these concerns. Our case study is the Real-Time Population Survey (RPS), a novel online survey of the US built around the Current Population Survey (CPS). The RPS replicates core components of the CPS, ensuring comparable measures that allow us to weight and rigorously validate our results using a high-quality benchmark. At the same time, special questions in the RPS yield novel information regarding ...
Working Papers , Paper 2022-012

Working Paper
Why Do Earnings Fall with Job Displacement?
Fallick, Bruce; Carrington, William J. (2014-06-02)
The earnings of workers are reduced for many years after being displaced from their jobs, and those workers and their families face increased risk of other problems as well. The ills suffered by displaced workers motivated several recent expansions of government programs, including the unemployment insurance system, and have spurred calls for wage insurance that would provide longerrun earnings replacement. However, while the magnitude of the losses is relatively clear, the theory of why displacement matters is scattered and somewhat undeveloped. Much of the policy discussion appears to ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1405

Working Paper
Measuring Job Loss during the Pandemic Recession in Real Time with Twitter Data
Aizenman, Anbar; Cajner, Tomaz; Doniger, Cynthia L.; Williams, Jacob; Brennan, Connor M. (2023-05-23)
We present an indicator of job loss derived from Twitter data, based on a fine-tuned neural network with transfer learning to classify if a tweet is job-loss related or not. We show that our Twitter-based measure of job loss is well-correlated with and predictive of other measures of unemployment available in the official statistics and with the added benefits of real-time availability and daily frequency. These findings are especially strong for the period of the Pandemic Recession, when our Twitter indicator continues to track job loss well but where other real-time measures like ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2023-035

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