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Working Paper
Minimum Wage Increases and Vacancies
Kudlyak, Marianna; Tasci, Murat; Tuzemen, Didem (2022-04-21)
Using a unique data set and a novel identification strategy, we estimate the effect of minimum wage increases on job vacancy postings. Utilizing occupation-specific county-level vacancy data from the Conference Board’s Help Wanted Online for 2005-2018, we find that state-level minimum wage increases lead to substantial declines in existing and new vacancy postings in occupations with a larger share of workers who earn close to the prevailing minimum wage. We estimate that a 10 percent increase in the state-level effective minimum wage reduces vacancies by 2.4 percent in the same quarter, ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2022-10

Working Paper
Mismatch Unemployment During COVID-19 and the Post-Pandemic Labor Shortages
Birinci, Serdar; Mercan, Yusuf; See, Kurt (2024-09-19)
We examine the extent to which mismatch unemployment—employment losses relative to an efficient allocation where the planner can costlessly reallocate unemployed workers across sectors to maximize output—shaped labor market dynamics during the COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent recovery episode characterized by labor shortages. We find that, for the first time in our sample, mismatch unemployment turned negative at the onset of the pandemic. This result suggests that the efficient allocation of job seekers would involve reallocating workers toward longer-tenure and more-productive jobs, ...
Working Papers , Paper 2024-025

Working Paper
The Quality-Adjusted Cyclical Price of Labor
Bils, Mark; Kudlyak, Marianna; Lins, Paulo (2023-03-20)
Typical measures of wages, such as average hourly earnings, fail to capture cyclicality in the effective cost of labor in the presence of (i) cyclical fluctuations in the quality of worker-firm matches, or (ii) wages being smoothed within employment matches. To address both concerns, we estimate cyclicality in labor’s user cost exploiting the longrun wage in a match to control for match quality. Using NLSY data for 1980 to 2019, we identify three channels by which hiring in a recession affects user cost: It lowers the new-hire wage; it lowers wages going forward in the match; but it also ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2023-10

Working Paper
Employer Reallocation During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Validation and Application of a Do-It-Yourself CPS
Bick, Alexander; Blandin, Adam (2022-05-03)
Economists have recently begun using independent online surveys to collect national labor market data. Questions remain over the quality of such data. This paper provides an approach to address these concerns. Our case study is the Real-Time Population Survey (RPS), a novel online survey of the US built around the Current Population Survey (CPS). The RPS replicates core components of the CPS, ensuring comparable measures that allow us to weight and rigorously validate our results using a high-quality benchmark. At the same time, special questions in the RPS yield novel information regarding ...
Working Papers , Paper 2022-012

Journal Article
A Slowdown in Job Vacancies Is Likely to Coincide with Higher Unemployment and Slower Wage Growth
Bi, Huixin; Gulati, Chaitri; Mustre-del-Rio, Jose (2022-08-10)
Recently, some market observers have proposed that job vacancies could decline, and ease wage growth, without a commensurate increase in the unemployment rate. However, we find that the typical relationship of declining job vacancies and higher unemployment holds even at exceptionally low levels of the unemployment rate. A notable decline in job postings will likely coincide with an easing of tightness in the labor market, a higher unemployment rate, and slowing wage growth.
Economic Bulletin , Issue August 10, 2022 , Pages 4

Working Paper
VACANCY CHAINS
Elsby, Michael; Ratner, David; Michaels, Ryan (2020-07-30)
Replacement hiring—recruitment that seeks to replace positions vacated by workers who quit—plays a central role in establishment dynamics. We document this phenomenon using rich microdata on U.S. establishments, which frequently report no net change in their employment, often for years at a time, despite facing substantial gross turnover in the form of quits. We propose a model in which replacement hiring is driven by the presence of a putty-clay friction in the production structure of establishments. Replacement hiring induces a novel positive feedback channel through which an initial ...
Working Papers , Paper 20-28

Working Paper
The Geography of Job Creation and Job Destruction
Kuhn, Moritz; Manovskii, Iourii; Qiu, Xincheng (2024-02-29)
Spatial differences in labor market performance are large and highly persistent. Using data from the United States, Germany, and the United Kingdom, we document striking similarities across these countries in the spatial differences in unemployment, vacancies, and job filling, finding, and separation rates. The novel facts on the geography of vacancies and job filling are instrumental in guiding and disciplining the development of a theory of local labor market performance. We find that a spatial version of a Diamond-Mortensen-Pissarides model with endogenous separations and on-the-job search ...
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers , Paper 085

Report
Unemployment Benefits and Unemployment in the Great Recession: The Role of Equilibrium Effects
Mitman, Kurt; Karahan, Fatih; Manovskii, Iourii; Hagedorn, Marcus (2013-10-01)
Equilibrium labor market theory suggests that unemployment benefit extensions affect unemployment by impacting both job search decisions by the unemployed and job creation decisions by employers. The existing empirical literature focused on the former effect only. We develop a new methodology necessary to incorporate the measurement of the latter effect. Implementing this methodology in the data, we find that benefit extensions raise equilibrium wages and lead to a sharp contraction in vacancy creation and employment and a rise in unemployment.
Staff Reports , Paper 646

Working Paper
Occupational Licensing and Occupational Mobility
Jackson, Osborne (2023-09-01)
This paper estimates the impact of occupational licensing at the extensive margin (existence) and intensive margin (qualifications) on the occupational mobility of US workers. Using 2015–2022 Current Population Survey data on worker occupational choices matched to licensing-policy data, I show that the existence of licensing regulation significantly reduces the probability that a worker enters an occupation. This reduced mobility is largely due to licensing fees and minimum thresholds for age and education. This finding may help explain the weak relationship between licensure and product ...
Working Papers , Paper 23-18

Working Paper
Mismatch Unemployment During COVID-19 and the Post-Pandemic Labor Shortages
Birinci, Serdar; Mercan, Yusuf; See, Kurt (2024-10-09)
We examine the extent to which mismatch unemployment—excess unemployment from a mismatch between sectors where job seekers search for work and sectors where jobs are available—shaped labor market dynamics during the COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent recovery. We find that the mismatch index turned negative at the onset of the pandemic for the first time since 2000, suggesting that the efficient allocation of job seekers would involve reallocating workers toward longer-tenure and more productive jobs, even at the expense of fewer hires. We show that sectoral differences in job ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 24-10

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