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Working Paper
Understanding the Long-Run Decline in Interstate Migration: Online Appendix
Schulhofer-Wohl, Sam; Kaplan, Greg (2015-06-01)
This appendix contains eight sections. Section 1 gives technical details of how we calculate standard errors in the CPS data. Section 2 discusses changes in the ACS procedures before 2005. Section 3 examines demographic and economic patterns in migration over the past two decades, in more detail than in the main paper. Section 4 examines the cross-sectional variance of location-occupation interactions in earnings when we define locations by MSAs instead of states. Section 5 describes alternative methods to estimate the variance of location-occupation interactions in income. Section 6 measures ...
Working Papers , Paper 725

Working Paper
The Well-Being of Nations: Estimating Welfare from International Migration
Lin, Jeffrey; Lee, Seung Jung; Lee, Sanghoon (2020-01-14)
The limitations of GDP as a measure of welfare are well known. We propose a new method of estimating the well-being of nations. Using gross bilateral international migration flows and a discrete choice model in which everyone in the world chooses a country in which to live, we estimate each country?s overall quality of life. Our estimates, by relying on revealed preference, complement previous estimates of economic well-being that consider only income or a small number of factors, or rely on structural assumptions about how these factors contribute to wellbeing.
Working Papers , Paper 19-33

Working Paper
The Allocation of Immigrant Talent: Macroeconomic Implications for the U.S. and Across Countries
Birinci, Serdar; See, Kurt; Leibovici, Fernando (2022-06)
We quantify the barriers to the economic integration of immigrants using an occupational choice model with natives and immigrants of multiple types subject to wedges that distort their allocations. We show that key parameters, including wedges, can be estimated to match the distribution of employment and earnings across individuals and occupations. We find sizable output gains from removing immigrant wedges in the U.S., accounting for 7 percent of immigrants' overall economic contribution. These gains arise from increased labor force participation and from reallocation from manual toward ...
Working Papers , Paper 2021-004

Working Paper
Does immigration crowd natives into or out of higher education?
Jackson, Osborne (2015-10-01)
Over the past several decades, the United States has experienced some of its largest immigrant inflows since the Great Depression. This higher level of immigration has generated significant debate on the effects of such inflows on receiving markets and natives. Education market studies have found that inflows of immigrant students can displace some natives from enrollment. Meanwhile, labor market studies have primarily examined the impact of immigrant labor inflows on the wages of similarly and dissimilarly skilled natives, with mixed results. The lack of consensus in the wage studies has ...
Working Papers , Paper 15-18

Newsletter
Immigration and the Labor Market in the Post-Pandemic Recovery
Butcher, Kristin F.; Cain, Lucas; Garcia-Jimeno, Camillo; Perry, Ryan (2023-10)
Standard estimates based on the main household survey used to shed light on labor markets—the Current Population Survey (CPS)—suggest that after a significant drop during the pandemic, recent rapid growth has brought the foreign-born population in the United States back to, or above, levels predicted by the pre-pandemic trend. However, we document that the weighting factors used to make the CPS nationally representative have recently displayed some unusual movements and conclude that standard estimates of the foreign-born population may currently be too high.
Chicago Fed Letter , Volume no 486 , Pages 8

Working Paper
High-Skill Migration, Multinational Companies, and the Location of Economic Activity
Morales, Nicolas (2019-12-17)
This paper examines the relationship between high-skill immigration and multinational activity. I assemble a novel firm-level dataset on high-skill visa applications and show that there is a large home-bias effect. Foreign multinational enterprises (MNEs) in the US tend to hire more migrant workers from their home countries compared to US firms. To quantify the general equilibrium implications for production and welfare, I build and estimate a quantitative model that includes trade, MNE production, and the migration decisions of high-skill workers. I use an instrumental variables approach to ...
Working Paper , Paper 19-20

Working Paper
Heterogeneous Capital Ownership, Partial Democracy and Political Support for Immigration
Bandyopadhyay, Subhayu; Mitra, Devashish (2024-10-15)
This paper analyzes and compares equilibrium immigration levels of some popular political economy models in the context of unequal capital holdings. We show that immigration rises (falls) with inequality in a limited (inclusive) democracy where only a small (large) fraction of the population has voting rights. Furthermore, we highlight the similarities between a campaign-contributions model and a partial-democracy model in terms of their predictions about immigration policy. In particular, we show that extension of voting rights in a partial democracy has qualitatively similar implications on ...
Working Papers , Paper 2024-035

Working Paper
Where Did the Workers Go? The Effect of COVID Immigration Restrictions on Post-Pandemic Labor Market Tightness
Rubinton, Hannah; Ricketts, Lowell R.; Marks, Cassandra; Isaacson, Maggie (2024-01)
During the COVID pandemic there were unprecedented shortfalls in immigration. At the same time, during the economic recovery, the labor market was tight, with the number of vacancies per unemployed worker reaching 2.5, more than twice its pre-pandemic average. In this paper, we investigate whether these two trends are linked. We do not find evidence to support the hypothesis that the immigration shortfalls caused the tight labor market for two reasons. First, at the peak, we were missing about 2 million immigrant workers, but this number had largely recovered by February 2022 just as the ...
Working Papers , Paper 2024-003

Working Paper
Foreign nurse importation to the United States and the supply of native registered nurses
Pan, Jessica; Cortes, Patricia (2014-07-31)
Importing foreign nurses has been used as a strategy to ease nursing shortages in the United States. The effectiveness of this policy critically depends on the long-run response of native-born nurses. We examine how the immigration of foreign-born registered nurses (RNs) affects the occupational choice and long-run employment decisions of native RNs. Using a variety of empirical strategies that exploit the geographical distribution of immigrant nurses across U.S. cities, we find evidence of large displacement effects?over a 10-year period, for every foreign nurse that migrates to a city, ...
Working Papers , Paper 14-7

Working Paper
Labor Market Effects of Worker- and Employer-Targeted Immigration Enforcement
Orrenius, Pia M.; Zavodny, Madeline; Smith, Chloe N. (2024-11-19)
Hiring someone who is not authorized to work in the United States is illegal, and employers who knowingly hire unauthorized immigrant workers may face civil and criminal penalties. The federal government uses a variety of actions, including worksite raids and paperwork audits, to enforce the prohibition on hiring unauthorized workers. Compliance costs and the possibility of becoming the target of an immigration enforcement action may affect U.S. businesses’ decisions about whom to hire as well as how many workers to employ and how much to pay them, but little previous research has studied ...
Working Papers , Paper 2413

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