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Discussion Paper
A DSGE Perspective on Safety, Liquidity, and Low Interest Rates
Tambalotti, Andrea; Giannoni, Marc; Gupta, Abhi; Giannone, Domenico; Li, Pearl; Del Negro, Marco (2018-02-07)
The preceding two posts in this series documented that interest rates on safe and liquid assets, such as U.S. Treasury securities, have declined significantly in the past twenty years. Of course, short-term interest rates in the United States are under the control of the Federal Reserve, at least in nominal terms. So it is legitimate to ask, To what extent is this decline driven by the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy? This post addresses this question by coupling the results presented in the previous post with those obtained from an estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20180207

Working Paper
Should monetary policy \"lean or clean\"?
White, William R. (2009)
It has been contended by many in the central banking community that monetary policy would not be effective in "leaning" against the upswing of a credit cycle (the boom) but that lower interest rates would be effective in "cleaning" up (the bust) afterwards. In this paper, these two propositions (can't lean, but can clean) are examined and found seriously deficient. In particular, it is contended in this paper that monetary policies designed solely to deal with short term problems of insufficient demand could make medium term problems worse by encouraging a buildup of debt that cannot be ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 34

Report
Coarse Pricing Policies
Stevens, Luminita (2015-11-23)
The puzzling behavior of inflation in the Great Recession and its aftermath has increased the need to better understand the constraints that firms face when setting prices. Using new data and theory, I demonstrate that each firm's choice of how much information to acquire to set prices determines aggregate price dynamics through the patterns of pricing at the micro level, and through the large heterogeneity in pricing policies across firms. Viewed through this lens, the behavior of prices in recent years becomes less puzzling, as firms endogenously adjust their information acquisition ...
Staff Report , Paper 520

Discussion Paper
Deciphering Americans’ Views on Cryptocurrencies
Hundtofte , Sean; Orchinik, Reed; Martin, Antoine; Lee, Michael Junho (2019-03-25)
Having witnessed the dramatic rise and fall in the value of cryptocurrencies over the past year, we wanted to learn more about what motivates people to participate in this market. To find out, we included a special set of questions in the May 2018 Survey of Consumer Expectations, a project of the New York Fed’s Center for Microeconomic Data. This blog post summarizes the results of that survey, shedding light on U.S. consumers’ depth of participation in cryptocurrencies and their motives for entering this new market.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20190325

Working Paper
The Currency Dimension of the Bank Lending Channel in International Monetary Transmission
Takats, Elod; Temesvary, Judit (2017-01)
We investigate how the use of a currency transmits monetary policy shocks in the global banking system. We use newly available unique data on the bilateral cross-border lending flows of 27 BIS-reporting lending banking systems to over 50 borrowing countries, broken down by currency denomination (USD, EUR and JPY). We have three main findings. First, monetary shocks in a currency significantly affect cross-border lending flows in that currency, even when neither the lending banking system nor the borrowing country uses that currency as their own. Second, this transmission works mainly through ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2017-001

Discussion Paper
Who Pays What First? Debt Prioritization during the COVID Pandemic
Plosser, Matthew; Conway, Jacob; Arnesen, William J. (2021-03-29)
Since the depths of the Great Recession, household debt has increased from a low of $11 trillion in 2013 to more than $14 trillion in 2020 (see the New York Fed Household Debt and Credit Report). In this post, we examine how consumers’ repayment priorities have evolved over that time. Specifically, we seek to answer the following question: When consumers repay some but not all of their loans, which types do they choose to keep paying and which do they fall behind on?
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20210329

Discussion Paper
How Do the Fed's MBS Purchases Affect Credit Allocation?
Schulhofer-Wohl, Sam; Martin, Antoine (2018-08-06)
It is sometimes said that the Federal Reserve should not engage in “credit allocation.” But what does credit allocation actually mean? And how do current Fed policies affect the allocation of credit? In this post, we describe two separate ideas often associated with credit allocation. The first idea is that the Fed should not take credit risk, which taxpayers would ultimately have to bear. The second idea is that the Fed’s actions should not influence the flow of credit to particular sectors. We consider whether the Fed’s holdings of agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) could ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20180806

Discussion Paper
Bitcoin Is Not a New Type of Money
Lee, Michael Junho; Martin, Antoine (2020-06-18)
Bitcoin, and more generally, cryptocurrencies, are often described as a new type of money. In this post, we argue that this is a misconception. Bitcoin may be money, but it is not a new type of money. To see what is truly new about Bitcoin, it is useful to make a distinction between “money,” the asset that is being exchanged, and the “exchange mechanism,” that is, the method or process through which the asset is transferred. Doing so reveals that monies with properties similar to Bitcoin have existed for centuries. However, the ability to make electronic exchanges without a trusted ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20200618

Working Paper
Monetary Policy Effectiveness in China: Evidence from a FAVAR Model
Fernald, John G.; Spiegel, Mark M.; Swanson, Eric T. (2014-02-24)
We use a broad set of Chinese economic indicators and a dynamic factor model framework to estimate Chinese economic activity and inflation as latent variables. We incorporate these latent variables into a factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) to estimate the effects of Chinese monetary policy on the Chinese economy. A FAVAR approach is particularly well-suited to this analysis due to concerns about Chinese data quality, a lack of a long history for many series, and the rapid institutional and structural changes that China has undergone. We find that increases in bank reserve ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2014-7

Working Paper
The St. Louis Fed DSGE Model
Faria-e-Castro, Miguel (2024-06)
This document contains a technical description of the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model developed and maintained by the Research Division of the St. Louis Fed as one of its tools for forecasting and policy analysis. The St. Louis Fed model departs from an otherwise standard medium-scale New Keynesian DSGE model along two main dimensions: first, it allows for household heterogeneity, in the form of workers and capitalists, who have different marginal propensities to consume (MPC). Second, it explicitly models a fiscal sector endowed with multiple spending and revenue ...
Working Papers , Paper 2024-014

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