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Working Paper
International Credit Markets and Global Business Cycles
Pintus, Patrick A.; Wen, Yi; Xing, Xiaochuan (2018-05-14)
This paper stresses a new channel through which global financial linkages contribute to the co-movement in economic activity across countries. We show in a two-country setting with borrowing constraints that international credit markets are subject to self-fulfilling variations in the world real interest rate. Those expectation-driven changes in the borrowing cost in turn act as global shocks that induce strong cross-country co-movements in both financial and real variables (such as asset prices, GDP, consumption, investment and employment). When firms around the world benefit from ...
Working Papers , Paper 2018-9

Working Paper
Accounting for Factorless Income
Neiman, Brent; Karabarbounis, Loukas (2018-03-28)
Comparing U.S. GDP to the sum of measured payments to labor and imputed rental payments to capital results in a large and volatile residual or ?factorless income.? We analyze three common strategies of allocating and interpreting factorless income, speci?cally that it arises from economic pro?ts (Case ?), unmeasured capital (Case K), or deviations of the rental rate of capital from standard measures based on bond returns (Case R). We are skeptical of Case ? as it reveals a tight negative relationship between real interest rates and markups, leads to large ?uctuations in inferred ...
Working Papers , Paper 749

Working Paper
Should Capital Be Taxed?
Chien, YiLi; Wen, Yi; Chen, Yunmin; Yang, C.C. (2020-09-26)
We design an infinite-horizon heterogeneous-agents and incomplete-markets model to demonstrate analytically that in the absence of any redistributional effects of government policies, optimal capital tax is zero despite capital overaccumulation under precautionary savings and borrowing constraints. Our result indicates that public debt is a better tool than capital taxation to restore aggregate productive efficiency.
Working Papers , Paper 2020-033

Working Paper
The Stable Transformation Path
Buera, Francisco J.; Mestieri, Martí; O'Connor, Daniel G.; Kaboski, Joseph P. (2020-10-23)
Standard dynamic models of structural transformation, without knife-edge and counterfactual parameter values, preclude balanced growth path (BGP) analysis. This paper develops a dynamic equilibrium concept for a more general class of models | an alternative to a BGP, which we coin a Stable Transformation Path (STraP). The STraP characterizes the medium-term dynamics of the economy in a turnpike sense; it is the path toward which the economy (quickly) converges from an arbitrary initial capital stock. Calibrated simulations demonstrate that the relaxed parameter values that the STraP allows ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2020-23

Working Paper
Limited Participation in Equity Markets and Business Cycles
Morelli, Juan M. (2021-43-30)
This paper studies how the rise in US households' participation in equity markets affects the transmission of macroeconomic shocks to the economy. I embed limited participation into a New Keynesian framework for the US economy to analyze the individual and aggregate effects of higher participation. I derive three main results. First, participants are relatively more responsive to shocks than nonparticipants. Second, higher participation reduces the effectiveness of monetary policy. Third, with higher participation the economy becomes less volatile. I contrast key predictions of my model with ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2021-026

Journal Article
Optimal Ramsey Capital Taxation with Endogenous Government Spending
Lee, Junsang; Chien, YiLi (2016)
The authors study optimal capital income taxation in heterogeneous agent economies featuring endogenous government spending. Similar to Aiyagari (1995), they find that the long-run optimal capital tax rate should not be zero as long as the competitive equilibrium risk-free interest rate differs from the subjective time discount rate. The authors first argue that this result holds in a wide range of economic environments and is not limited to only the standard incomplete market model with heterogeneous agents. As an example, a decentralized economy with limited commitment is considered. ...
Review , Volume 98 , Issue 4 , Pages 311-327

Working Paper
The Firm Size and Leverage Relationship and Its Implications for Entry and Concentration in a Low Interest Rate World
Eyigungor, Burcu; Chatterjee, Satyajit (2019-03-14)
Larger firms (by sales or employment) have higher leverage. This pattern is explained using a model in which firms produce multiple varieties and borrow with the option to default against their future cash ow. A variety can die with a constant probability, implying that bigger firms (those with more varieties) have lower coefficient of variation of sales and higher leverage. A lower risk-free rate benefits bigger firms more as they are able to lever more and existing firms buy more of the new varieties arriving into the economy. This leads to lower startup rates and greater concentration of ...
Working Papers , Paper 19-18

Working Paper
Disasters Everywhere: The Costs of Business Cycles Reconsidered
Schularick, Moritz; Taylor, Alan M.; Jordà, Òscar (2020-03-31)
Business cycles are costlier and stabilization policies more beneficial than widely thought. This paper shows that all business cycles are asymmetric and resemble mini “disasters”. By this we mean that growth is pervasively fat-tailed and non-Gaussian. Using long-run historical data, we show empirically that this is true for all advanced economies since 1870. Focusing on the peacetime sample, we develop a tractable local projection framework to estimate consumption growth paths for normal and financial-crisis recessions. Using random coefficient local projections we get an easy and ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2020-11

Working Paper
Capital Goods Trade, Relative Prices, and Economic Development
Sposi, Michael; Ravikumar, B.; Mutreja, Piyusha (2017-03-11)
International trade in capital goods has quantitatively important effects on economic development through capital formation and TFP. Capital goods trade enables poor countries to access more efficient technologies, leading to lower relative prices of capital goods and higher capital-output ratios. Moreover, poor countries can use their comparative advantage and allocate their resources more efficiently, and increase their TFP. We quantify these channels using a multisector, multicountry, Ricardian model of trade with capital accumulation. The model matches several trade and development facts ...
Working Papers , Paper 2017-6

Working Paper
Firm Entry and Exit and Aggregate Growth
Asturias, Jose; Hur, Sewon; Kehoe, Timothy J.; Ruhl, Kim J. (2021-10-19)
Applying the Foster, Haltiwanger and Krizan (FHK) (2001) decomposition to plant-level manufacturing data from Chile and Korea, we find that the entry and exit of plants account for a larger fraction of aggregate productivity growth during periods of fast GDP growth. To analyze this relationship, we develop a model of firm entry and exit based on Hopenhayn (1992). When we introduce reforms that reduce entry costs or reduce barriers to technology adoption into a calibrated model, we find that the entry and exit terms in the FHK decomposition become more important as GDP grows rapidly, just as ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 411

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