Search Results
Report
Business cycle fluctuations and the distribution of consumption
De Giorgi, Giacomo; Gambetti, Luca
(2015-03-01)
This paper sheds new light on the interactions between business cycles and the consumption distribution. We use Consumer Expenditure Survey data and a factor model to characterize the cyclical dynamics of the consumption distribution. We first establish that our approach is able to closely match business cycle fluctuations of consumption from the National Account. We then study the responses of the consumption distribution to total factor productivity shocks and economic policy uncertainty shocks. Importantly, we find that the responses of the right tail of the consumption distribution, ...
Staff Reports
, Paper 716
Journal Article
Recent Changes in U.S. Family Finances: Results from the 1998 Survey of Consumer Finances
Surette, Brian J.; Starr-McCluer, Martha; Kennickell, Arthur B.
(2000-01)
Using data from the Federal Reserve Board's two most recent Surveys of Consumer Finances, this article provides a detailed picture of changes in the financial condition of U.S. families between 1995 and 1998. The financial situation of families changed notably in the three-year period. While income continued a moderate upward trend, net worth grew strongly, and the increase in net worth was broadly shared by different demographic groups. A booming stock market accounts for a substantial part of the rise in net worth, but the data also suggest that improvements in financial circumstances ...
Federal Reserve Bulletin
, Volume 86
, Issue 1
, Pages pp. 1-29
Working Paper
Tracking U.S. Consumers in Real Time with a New Weekly Index of Retail Trade
Aaronson, Daniel; Brave, Scott A.; Karger, Ezra; Fogarty, Michael; Krane, Spencer D.
(2021-06-18)
We create a new weekly index of retail trade that accurately predicts the U.S. Census Bureau's Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS). The index's weekly frequency provides an early snapshot of the MRTS and allows for a more granular analysis of the aggregate consumer response to fast-moving events such as the Covid-19 pandemic. To construct the index, we extract the co-movement in weekly data series capturing credit and debit card transactions, foot traffic, gasoline sales, and consumer sentiment. To ensure that the index is representative of aggregate retail spending, we implementa novel ...
Working Paper Series
, Paper WP-2021-05
Working Paper
Consumer Payment Behavior by Income and Demographics
Greene, Claire; Perry, Julian; Stavins, Joanna
(2024-07-01)
Despite the introduction of an array of innovations and new payment options for consumers over the last decade, income and demographics remain significant predictors of payment behavior. Using data from a 2023 consumer payments diary, we find that income, age, and education are significant predictors of which payment instruments consumers adopt and use. These associations hold not only for traditional payment instruments—cards and paper—but also for innovations such as mobile apps; buy now, pay later (BNPL); and cryptocurrency. In 2023, less educated consumers were significantly less ...
Working Papers
, Paper 24-8
Discussion Paper
Who’s on First? Characteristics of First-Time Homebuyers
Tracy, Joseph; Lee, Donghoon
(2019-04-10)
In our previous post, we presented a new measure of first-time homebuyers. In this post, we use this improved measure to describe the characteristics of first-time buyers and how those characteristics change over time. Having an accurate assessment of first-time buyers is important given that the aim of many housing policies is to support the transition from renting to owning. A proper assessment of these housing policies requires an understanding of the impact of these policies on the share of first-time buyers and the characteristics of these buyers. Our third post will directly examine ...
Liberty Street Economics
, Paper 20190410
Working Paper
Defining Households That Are Underserved in Digital Payment Services
Greene, Claire; Hayashi, Fumiko; Lloro, Alicia; Shy, Oz; Stavins, Joanna; Toh, Ying Lei
(2024-09-01)
US households that lack digital means of making and receiving payments cannot participate fully in an increasingly digitized economy. Assessing the scope of this problem and addressing it requires a definition of households that are underserved in digital payments. Traditional definitions of households underserved in the banking system—those that are unbanked and those that are underbanked—do not account for the ownership of nonbank transaction accounts that can be used to make and receive digital payments. In this paper, we define households underserved in digital payments by considering ...
Working Papers
, Paper 24-10
Working Paper
Inequality in the Time of COVID-19: Evidence from Mortgage Delinquency and Forbearance
Geng, Liang; Cordell, Lawrence R.; An, Xudong; Lee, Keyoung
(2021-03-02)
Using a novel database that combines mortgage servicing records, credit-bureau data, and loan application information, we show that lower-income and minority borrowers have significantly higher nonpayment rates during the COVID-19 pandemic, even after controlling for conventional risk factors. A difference-in-differences analysis shows how much the pandemic has exacerbated income and racial inequalities. We then find that government and private-sector forbearance programs have mitigated these inequalities in the near term, as lower-income and minority borrowers have taken up the short-term ...
Working Papers
, Paper 21-09
Working Paper
Has COVID Changed Consumer Payment Behavior?
Greene, Claire; Merry, Ellen A.; Stavins, Joanna
(2021-10-01)
The COVID-19 pandemic has caused large changes in consumer spending, including how people make their payments. We use data from a nationally representative survey of U.S. consumers collected before COVID in 2018 and 2019 and during COVID in 2020 to analyze changes in consumer payment behavior during the pandemic. We find that compared with their payment behavior in 2019, consumers had shifted some of their purchases from in person to online by fall 2020, significantly lowered their use of cash for purchases, and shifted their person-to-person (P2P) payments away from paper (cash and checks). ...
Working Papers
, Paper 21-12
Working Paper
Migration as a Vector of Economic Losses from Disaster-Affected Areas in the United States
Fussell, Elizabeth; DeWaard, Jack; Price, Kobie; Soto, Michael; Curtis, Katherine; McConnell, Kathryn; Castro, Catalina Anampa; Whitaker, Stephan
(2021-10-13)
In this paper, we infuse consideration of migration into research on economic losses from extreme weather disasters. Taking a comparative case study approach and using data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York/Equifax Consumer Credit Panel, we document the size of economic losses via migration from 23 disaster-affected areas in the United States after the most damaging hurricanes, tornadoes, and wildfires on record. We then employ demographic standardization and decomposition to determine if these losses primarily reflect changes in out-migration or changes in the economic resources that ...
Working Papers
, Paper 21-22
Briefing
What Consumer Surveys Say about the Design of a U.S. CBDC for Retail Payments
Noll, Franklin
(2023-03-29)
Although researchers continue to discuss the possibility of a central bank digital currency (CBDC) for retail payments in the United States, the success of a CBDC will depend on consumer adoption. To understand how a CBDC could provide a good user experience, recent surveys in the United States and in other countries have asked consumers about their wants and needs for a potential CBDC. In the United States, a majority of respondents to these surveys seek dependability, convenience, and security.
Payments System Research Briefing
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credit market frictions 1 items
credit performance 1 items
credit reports 1 items
credit scores 1 items
creditor rights 1 items
data breach 1 items
default risk 1 items
deflation 1 items
delinquency 1 items
demand 1 items
demand estimation 1 items
density forecasts 1 items
diaries 1 items
diary survey 1 items
digital currencies 1 items
digital payments 1 items
discharge 1 items
discrete-choice demand estimation 1 items
driving behavior 1 items
dual mandate 1 items
economic disparities 1 items
effective prices 1 items
elasticity 1 items
elasticity of intertemporal substitution 1 items
emergency savings 1 items
employment 1 items
endogenous markups 1 items
expectations data 1 items
financial crisis 1 items
financial literacy 1 items
financial services 1 items
financial statements 1 items
financial well-being 1 items
first-time home buyers 1 items
fiscal policy 1 items
for-profit 1 items
forbearance 1 items
forecasting 1 items
formative experiences 1 items
fraud alert 1 items
gasoline 1 items
gasoline price 1 items
harmonization 1 items
heterogeneous treatment effects 1 items
household 1 items
household consumption 1 items
household education 1 items
household survey 1 items
household surveys 1 items
household finance 1 items
households 1 items
housing boom and bust 1 items
housing finance 1 items
identification 1 items
identity theft 1 items
income 1 items
income elasticity of demand 1 items
inflation measurement 1 items
inflation target 1 items
initial public offering (IPO) 1 items
insolvency 1 items
instrumental variables 1 items
interest rates 1 items
interpersonal connections 1 items
law and finance 1 items
lifecycle models 1 items
liquidity constraints 1 items
loan modification 1 items
loan modifications 1 items
loan performance 1 items
longer maturities 1 items
longer-term borrowings 1 items
low income 1 items
manufacturing 1 items
markups 1 items
merchant category 1 items
minimum wages 1 items
money demand 1 items
mortgage approval 1 items
mortgage default 1 items
mortgage forbearance 1 items
mortgage markets 1 items
mortgage refinancing 1 items
multinational tax 1 items
negative equity 1 items
non-homothetic preferences 1 items
observable characteristics 1 items
online experiment 1 items
origination vintages 1 items
pass-through entities 1 items
path dependence 1 items
payment instrument choice 1 items
payment instruments 1 items
payment methods 1 items
personal bankruptcy 1 items
political participation 1 items
preference persistence 1 items
prescribing practices 1 items
price discrimination 1 items
price elasticity 1 items
price elasticity of demand 1 items
probabilistic questions 1 items
racial equity 1 items
real-time data 1 items
recovery rates 1 items
regressive effects 1 items
regulation 1 items
relationship lending 1 items
retail 1 items
rewards 1 items
sacrifice ratio 1 items
safety net 1 items
sales 1 items
samples election 1 items
savings 1 items
screening 1 items
services 1 items
skill premium 1 items
small businesses 1 items
social capital 1 items
spatial commitment devices 1 items
state foreclosure laws 1 items
state-contingent preferences 1 items
strategic default 1 items
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