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Discussion Paper
Mortgage Rate Lock‑In and Homeowners’ Moving Plans
Aidala, Felix; Haughwout, Andrew F.; Hyman, Benjamin; Somerville, Jason; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert (2024-05-06)
The U.S. housing market has had a tumultuous few years. After falling to record lows during the pandemic, the average 30-year mortgage rate rapidly increased in 2022 and 2023 and now hovers near a two-decade high of 7.2 percent. For those that locked in a low mortgage rate prior to 2022, this steep increase has significantly increased the cost of moving, as taking out a mortgage at current rates would potentially increase their monthly housing payment by hundreds or thousands of dollars, even if the amount they borrowed remained unchanged. As shown by Ferreira et al. (2011), this lock-in ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20240506

Working Paper
The Price of Housing in the United States, 1890–2006
Lyons, Ronan; Shertzer, Allison; Gray, Rowena; Agorastos, David (2024-06-20)
We construct the first consistent market rent and home sales price series for American cities across the 20th century using millions of newspaper real estate listings. Our findings revise several stylized facts about U.S. housing markets. Real market rents did not fall during the 20th century for most cities. Instead, real rental price levels increased by about 20 percent from 1890 to 2006. There was also greater growth in real housing sales prices from 1965 to 1995 than is commonly understood. Using these series, we document several new facts about housing markets. The return to ...
Working Papers , Paper 24-12

Discussion Paper
Who Is Still on First? An Update of Characteristics of First‑Time Homebuyers
Lee, Donghoon; Tracy, Joseph (2025-08-11)
Following the COVID-19 health crisis, home prices and mortgage rates rose sharply. This created concerns that first-time homebuyers (FTBs) would be disadvantaged and would lose ground. Earlier this year, we documented that the share of purchase mortgages by FTBs, as well as their share of home purchases, have actually increased slightly over the past couple of years. It appears that FTBs are holding their own in this challenging housing market. This raises the question of whether the characteristics of FTBs have changed. In a 2019 post, we described the characteristics of these buyers over ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20250811

Newsletter
Land Value Taxes—What They Are and Where They Come From
Kepner, Elizabeth; Mattoon, Richard H. (2023-11)
Changes to property tax structures, including the introduction of split-rate taxation, have been seeing increased interest from policymakers. Split-rate property taxation is rooted in the concept of land value taxation, which is an alternative to the form of property taxation used in most U.S. communities. In this Chicago Fed Letter, we explain what these alternatives to traditional property taxation are and provide some history on their implementation in the U.S.
Chicago Fed Letter , Volume No 489 , Pages 5

Discussion Paper
Gulf War II Veterans Home Buyers Tax Credit
Peach, Richard (2012-02-22)
Over the next few years, large volumes of homes are likely to flow from foreclosure onto lenders? balance sheets as ?real estate owned,? or REO. Without a significant boost to demand, this large volume of ?distressed? real estate could potentially put substantial downward pressure on home prices. Accordingly, new policy initiatives are needed to increase the rate at which properties that flow into REO get reabsorbed back into use as renter- or owner-occupied units. In this post, I make the case for a tax credit for Gulf War II veterans? home purchases.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20120222

Working Paper
Do Minimum Wage Increases Benefit Intended Households? Evidence from the Performance of Residential Leases
Ambrose, Brent W.; Diop, Moussa; Agarwal, Sumit (2019-07-10)
Prior studies debating the e?ects of changes to the minimum wage concentrate on impacts on household income and spending or employment. We extend this debate by examining the impact of changes to the minimum wage on expenses associated with shelter, a previously unexplored area. Increases in state minimum wages signi?cantly reduce the incidence of renters defaulting on their lease contracts by 1.29 percentage points over three months, relative to similar renters who did not experience an increase in the minimum wage. This represents 25.7% fewer defaults post treatment in treated states. To ...
Working Papers , Paper 19-28

Working Paper
Owner-Occupancy Fraud and Mortgage Performance
Elul, Ronel; Payne, Aaron; Tilson, Sebastian (2023-01-31)
We identify occupancy fraud — borrowers who misrepresent their occupancy status as owner-occupants rather than investors — in residential mortgage originations. Unlike previous work, we show that fraud was prevalent in originations not just during the housing bubble, but also persists through more recent times. We also demonstrate that fraud is broad-based and appears in government-sponsored enterprise and bank portfolio loans, not just in private securitization; these fraudulent borrowers make up one-third of the effective investor population. Occupancy fraud allows riskier borrowers to ...
Working Papers , Paper 23-01

Discussion Paper
Local Hangovers: How the Housing Boom and Bust Affected Jobs in Metro Areas
Abel, Jaison R.; Deitz, Richard (2011-08-29)
What explains why some places suffered particularly severe job losses during the Great Recession? In this post, we extend our recent Current Issues article analyzing regional dimensions of the latest housing cycle and show that metropolitan areas that experienced the biggest housing booms and busts from 2000 to 2008 lost the most jobs during the recession. Not surprisingly, construction activity helps explain the tight link between housing and local job market performance. Given this pattern, we believe that each metro area’s boom-bust experience is likely to continue to influence its ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20110829

Discussion Paper
Whither Mortgages?
Haughwout, Andrew F.; Scally, Joelle; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert; Lee, Donghoon (2016-02-22)
Our most recent Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit showed that although total household debt has increased somewhat since 2012, that growth has been driven almost entirely by nonhousing debt?credit cards, auto loans and student loans. The largest category of household debt?mortgages?has been essentially flat since 2012, in spite of a substantial rise in housing prices over that period. In this post, we explore the sources of the sluggish growth in mortgage debt using our New York Fed Consumer Credit Panel, which is based on Equifax credit data.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20160222

Working Paper
Recent Employment Growth in Cities, Suburbs, and Rural Communities
Foote, Christopher L.; Couillard, Benjamin K. (2019-12-01)
This paper uses a comprehensive source of yearly data to study private-sector labor demand across US counties during the past five decades. Our focus is on how employment levels and earnings relate to population density—that is, how labor markets in rural areas, suburbs, and cities have fared relative to one another. Three broad lessons emerge. First, the longstanding suburbanization of employment and population in cities with very dense urban cores essentially stopped in the first decade of the 21st century. For cities with less dense cores, however, the decentralization of employment ...
Working Papers , Paper 19-20

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