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Working Paper
The Social Returns to Public R&D
Fieldhouse, Andrew J.; Mertens, Karel (2025-05-14)
Recent empirical evidence by Fieldhouse and Mertens (2024) points to a strong causal link between federal nondefense R&D funding and private-sector productivity growth, and large implied social returns to public R&D investment. We show that these high social return estimates broadly align with existing evidence on the social returns to private or total R&D spending. If the R&D increases authorized under the CHIPS and Science Act were fully appropriated, our modeling indicates a boost in U.S. productivity within a few years, reaching gains of 0.2–0.4% after seven years or more. At their ...
Working Papers , Paper 2519

Working Paper
The Returns to Government R&D: Evidence from U.S. Appropriations Shocks
Fieldhouse, Andrew J.; Mertens, Karel (2023-05-18)
We estimate the causal impact of government-funded R&D on business-sector productivity growth. Identification is based on a novel narrative classification of all significant postwar changes in appropriations for R&D funded by five major federal agencies. Using long-horizon local projections and the narrative measures, we find that an increase in appropriations for nondefense R&D leads to increases in various measures of innovative activity, and higher productivity in the long run. We structurally estimate the production function elasticity of nondefense government R&D capital using the SP-IV ...
Working Papers , Paper 2305

Working Paper
The Relative Price and Relative Productivity Channels for Aggregate Fluctuations
Swanson, Eric T. (2006-06-01)
This paper demonstrates that sectoral heterogeneity itself–without any additional bells or whistles–has first-order implications for the transmission of aggregate shocks to aggregate variables in an otherwise standard DSGE model. The effects of sectoral heterogeneity on this transmission are decomposed into two channels: a "relative price" channel and a "relative productivity" channel. The relative price channel results from changes in the relative prices of aggregates, such as investment vis-a-vis consumption goods, which occurs in a sectoral model in response to even standard aggregate ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2006-20

Report
The Great Recession, entrepreneurship, and productivity performance
Diez, Federico J. (2014-11-01)
In recent years, it is argued, the level of entrepreneurial activity in the United States has declined, causing concern because of its potential macroeconomic implications. In particular, it is feared that a lower rate of firm creation may be associated with lower productivity growth and, hence, lower economic growth in the coming years. This paper studies the issue, focusing on the dynamics of entrepreneurship and productivity around the time of the Great Recession. The author looks first at the recent evolution of alternative measures of entrepreneurship and of productivity, and then ...
Current Policy Perspectives , Paper 14-8

Working Paper
Knowledge Diffusion, Trade and Innovation across Countries and Sectors
Santacreu, Ana Maria; Li, Nan; Cai, Jie (2019-11-18)
We provide a unified framework for quantifying the cross country and cross-sector interactions among trade, innovation, and knowledge diffusion. We study the effect of trade liberalization in a multi-country, multi-sector endogenous growth model in which comparative advantage and the stock of knowledge are determined by innovation and diffusion. A reduction in trade costs induces a re-allocation of comparative advantage in production and innovation across sectors, which translates into higher growth along the counterfactual balanced growth path (BGP). Heterogeneous knowledge diffusion across ...
Working Papers , Paper 2017-29

Journal Article
An investigation of co-movements among the growth rates of the G-7 countries
Doyle, Brian M.; Faust, Jon (2002-10)
Early in 2000, after a decade of economic expansion, growth began to slow simultaneously in the large, advanced economies known as the Group of Seven (G-7)--Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States. The general slide in GDP growth fueled speculation that a period was emerging in which broad movements in the economies of the industrialized countries would be more closely linked. Proponents of this view argued that greater trade in goods and financial markets was leading to a greater synchronization of national economies. A rise in the co-movement of GDP ...
Federal Reserve Bulletin , Volume 88 , Issue Oct , Pages 427-437

Working Paper
Technological progress, the \"user cost of money,\" and the real output of banks
Basu, Susanto; Wang, J. Christina (2013-12-31)
Financial institutions provide their customers a variety of unpriced services and cover their costs through interest margins - the interest rates they receive on assets are generally higher than the rates they pay on liabilities. In particular, banks pay below-public-market interest rates on deposits while charging above-public-market rates on loans. Various authors have suggested that this situation allows one to measure the real quantity of financial services provided without explicit prices as proportional to the real stocks of financial assets held by households. We present a ...
Working Papers , Paper 13-21

Working Paper
ICT Services and their Prices: What do they tell us about Productivity and Technology?
Byrne, David M.; Corrado, Carol (2017-02-10)
This paper reassesses the link between ICT prices, technology, and productivity. To understand how the ICT sector could come to the rescue of a whole economy, we extend a multi-sector model due to Oulton (2012) to include ICT services (e.g., cloud services) and use it to calibrate the steady-state contribution of the ICT sector to growth in aggregate U.S. labor productivity. Because ICT technologies diffuse through the economy increasingly via purchases of cloud and data analytic services that are not fully accounted for in the standard narrative on ICT's contribution to economic growth, the ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2017-015

Working Paper
Equity Regulation and U.S. Venture Capital Investment
Atkinson, Tyler; Duca, John V. (2017-08-23)
There is a growing consensus that the long-run per capita growth rate of the U.S. economy has drifted lower since the early 2000s, consistent with a perceived slowdown in business dynamism. One factor that may have contributed to this is a downshift in venture capital investment and its failure to recover in line with stock prices, as pre-2003 patterns would suggest. Critics have argued that this is associated with the increased regulatory burden for publically traded firms to comply with the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 (SOX). There is inconclusive evidence of SOX deterring firms from becoming ...
Working Papers , Paper 1707

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