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Working Paper
The Outlook for U.S. Labor-Quality Growth
Fernald, John G.; Daly, Mary C.; Hobijn, Bart; Bosler, Canyon (2016-07-11)
Over the past 15 years, labor-quality growth has been very strong?defying nearly all earlier projections?and has added around 0.5 percentage points to an otherwise modest U.S. productivity picture. Going forward, labor quality is likely to add considerably less and may even be a drag on productivity growth in the medium term. Using a variety of methods, we project that potential labor-quality growth in the longer run (7 to 10 years out) is likely to fall in the range of 0.1 to 0.25 percent per year. In the medium term, labor-quality growth could be lower or even negative, should employment ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2016-14

Journal Article
An investigation of co-movements among the growth rates of the G-7 countries
Doyle, Brian M.; Faust, Jon (2002-10)
Early in 2000, after a decade of economic expansion, growth began to slow simultaneously in the large, advanced economies known as the Group of Seven (G-7)--Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States. The general slide in GDP growth fueled speculation that a period was emerging in which broad movements in the economies of the industrialized countries would be more closely linked. Proponents of this view argued that greater trade in goods and financial markets was leading to a greater synchronization of national economies. A rise in the co-movement of GDP ...
Federal Reserve Bulletin , Volume 88 , Issue Oct , Pages 427-437

Report
Jacks of All Trades and Masters of One: Declining Search Frictions and Unequal Growth
Menzio, Guido; Martellini, Paolo (2020-09-23)
Declining search frictions generate productivity growth by allowing workers to find jobs for which they are better suited. The return of declining search frictions on productivity varies across different types of workers. For workers who are "jacks of all trades" in the sense that their productivity is nearly independent from the distance between their skills and the requirements of their job—declining search frictions lead to minimal productivity growth. For workers who are "masters of one trade" in the sense that their productivity is very sensitive to the gap between their individual ...
Staff Report , Paper 613

Working Paper
Accounting for Innovations in Consumer Digital Services: IT still matters
Byrne, David M.; Corrado, Carol (2019-06-27)
This paper develops a framework for measuring digital services in the face of ongoing innovations in the delivery of content to consumers. We capture what Brynjolfsson and Saunders (2009) call "free goods" as the capital services generated by connected consumers' stocks of IT digital goods; this service flow augments the existing measure of personal consumption in GDP. Its value is determined by the intensity with which households use their IT capital to consume content delivered over networks, and its volume depends on the quality of the IT capital. Consumers pay for delivery services, ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2019-049

Working Paper
Knowledge Diffusion, Trade and Innovation across Countries and Sectors
Li, Nan; Santacreu, Ana Maria; Cai, Jie (2019-11-18)
We provide a unified framework for quantifying the cross country and cross-sector interactions among trade, innovation, and knowledge diffusion. We study the effect of trade liberalization in a multi-country, multi-sector endogenous growth model in which comparative advantage and the stock of knowledge are determined by innovation and diffusion. A reduction in trade costs induces a re-allocation of comparative advantage in production and innovation across sectors, which translates into higher growth along the counterfactual balanced growth path (BGP). Heterogeneous knowledge diffusion across ...
Working Papers , Paper 2017-29

Working Paper
Equity Regulation and U.S. Venture Capital Investment
Atkinson, Tyler; Duca, John V. (2017-08-23)
There is a growing consensus that the long-run per capita growth rate of the U.S. economy has drifted lower since the early 2000s, consistent with a perceived slowdown in business dynamism. One factor that may have contributed to this is a downshift in venture capital investment and its failure to recover in line with stock prices, as pre-2003 patterns would suggest. Critics have argued that this is associated with the increased regulatory burden for publically traded firms to comply with the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 (SOX). There is inconclusive evidence of SOX deterring firms from becoming ...
Working Papers , Paper 1707

Working Paper
Productivity and Potential Output Before, During, and After the Great Recession
Fernald, John G. (2014-06-05)
U.S. labor and total-factor productivity growth slowed prior to the Great Recession. The timing rules explanations that focus on disruptions during or since the recession, and industry and state data rule out ?bubble economy? stories related to housing or finance. The slowdown is located in industries that produce information technology (IT) or that use IT intensively, consistent with a return to normal productivity growth after nearly a decade of exceptional IT-fueled gains. A calibrated growth model suggests trend productivity growth has returned close to its 1973-1995 pace. Slower ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2014-15

Working Paper
Dynamic Gains from Trade Agreements with Intellectual Property Provisions
Santacreu, Ana Maria (2021-11-22)
I study the short- and long-term effects of trade agreements with strict intellectual property (IP) provisions on innovation, growth and welfare. I develop a quantitative multi-country trade model with endogenous productivity through innovation and adoption that features imperfect IP rights enforcement. A counterfactual analysis shows that improving IP protection in exchange for market access increases welfare, innovation and growth in the world. However, welfare gains along the transition accrue differently across countries. While developed countries benefit both in the short- and inthe ...
Working Papers , Paper 2021-010

Working Paper
Tax Heterogeneity and Misallocation
Kaymak, Barış; Schott, Immo (2023-12-19)
Companies face different effective marginal tax rates on their income. This can be detrimental to allocative efficiency unless taxes offset other distortions in the economy. This paper estimates the effect of tax rate heterogeneity on aggregate productivity in distorted economies with multiple frictions. Using firm-level balance-sheet data and estimates of marginal tax rates, we find that tax heterogeneity reduces total factor productivity by about 3 percent. Our findings highlight the positive correlation between marginal tax rates and other distortions to capital and especially labor. This ...
Working Papers , Paper 23-33

Working Paper
Dynamic Gains from Trade Agreements with Intellectual Property Provisions
Santacreu, Ana Maria (2023-11)
I develop a quantitative theory of bilateral trade agreements with intellectual property (IP) provisions in a multi-country growth model. The model’s dynamics are driven by innovation and technology licensing. Imperfect IP enforcement leads to reduced royalty payments and growth. Governments negotiate tariffs and IP enforcement through Nash bargaining. Gains from the trade agreement vary along the transition. Developing countries experience short-term losses, while developed countries gain in both the short and long run. A government with short-term goals may reduce losses but at the cost ...
Working Papers , Paper 2021-010

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