Search Results

(refine search)

SORT BY: PREVIOUS / NEXT

All:
Title:
Author:
Abstract:
Keywords:

+ Add Search Parameter

Working Paper
A Unified Framework to Estimate Macroeconomic Stars
Zaman, Saeed (2024-05-31)
This paper develops a semi-structural model to jointly estimate “stars” — long-run levels of output (its growth rate), the unemployment rate, the real interest rate, productivity growth, price inflation, and wage inflation. It features links between survey expectations and stars, time-variation in macroeconomic relationships, and stochastic volatility. Survey data help discipline stars’ estimates and have been crucial in estimating a high-dimensional model since the pandemic. The model has desirable real-time properties, competitive forecasting performance, and superior fit to the ...
Working Papers , Paper 21-23R2

Working Paper
A Unified Framework to Estimate Macroeconomic Stars
Zaman, Saeed (2022-08-15)
We develop a flexible semi-structural time-series model to estimate jointly several macroeconomic "stars" -- i.e., unobserved long-run equilibrium levels of output (and growth rate of output), the unemployment rate, the real rate of interest, productivity growth, price inflation, and wage inflation. The ingredients of the model are in part motivated by economic theory and in part by the empirical features necessitated by the changing economic environment. Following the recent literature on inflation and interest rate modeling, we explicitly model the links between long-run survey expectations ...
Working Papers , Paper 21-23R

Working Paper
A Unified Framework to Estimate Macroeconomic Stars
Zaman, Saeed (2021-10-14)
We develop a flexible semi-structural time-series model to estimate jointly several macroeconomic "stars" — i.e., unobserved long-run equilibrium levels of output (and growth rate of output), the unemployment rate, the real rate of interest, productivity growth, the price inflation, and wage inflation. The ingredients of the model are in part motivated by economic theory and in part by the empirical features necessitated by the changing economic environment. Following the recent literature on inflation and interest rate modeling, we explicitly model the links between long-run survey ...
Working Papers , Paper 21-23

Working Paper
Expanded GDP for Welfare Measurement in the 21st Century
Nakamura, Leonard I.; Hulten, Charles R. (2020-03-09)
The information revolution currently underway has changed the economy in ways that are hard to measure using conventional GDP procedures. The information available to consumers has increased dramatically as a result of the Internet and its applications, and new mobile communication devices have greatly increased the speed and reach of its accessibility. An individual now has an unprecedented amount of information on which to base consumption choices, and the “free” nature of the information provided means that the resulting benefits largely bypass GDP and accrue directly to consumers. ...
Working Papers , Paper 20-10

Working Paper
Foundational Processes and Growth
Tham, Wing Wah; Baslandze, Salomé; Sojli, Elvira; Liu, Leo (2025-02-19)
This paper studies the interaction between process and product innovations and their distinct role in firm growth dynamics. We differentiate empirically and theoretically two types of process innovations: foundational processes that advance production technology and cost-reducing processes that enhance existing production efficiency. We develop an innovation model of product varieties with quality heterogeneity to illustrate how these innovations affect firm growth differently and highlight how process innovation induces product innovation. By analyzing millions of patent texts from 1900 to ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2025-01

Working Paper
The Economic Gains from Equity
Buckman, Shelby R.; Choi, Laura; Daly, Mary C.; Seitelman, Lily (2021-04-07)
How much is inequity costing us? Using a simple growth accounting framework we apply standard shift-share techniques to data from the Current Population Survey (1990-2019) to compute the aggregate economic costs of persistent educational and labor market disparities by gender and race. We find significant economic losses associated with these gaps. Building on this finding, we consider which disparities generate the largest costs, paying specific attention to differences in employment, hours worked, educational attainment, educational utilization, and occupational allocation. We also examine ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2021-11

Working Paper
Evidence of Accelerating Mismeasurement of Growth and Inflation in the U.S. in the 21st Century
Nakamura, Leonard I. (2020-10-22)
Corporate equity market values, profitability, and intangible investment have reached high proportions of income. Are these investments and their outcomes evidence of a wellfunctioning society? We do not see the rapid growth in aggregate measures of output that would justify these investments and rewards. And why did the yield curve invert as the U.S. federal funds rate reached 2⅜ percent in early 2019, if the inflation rate was near 2 percent? We present the broad case that mismeasurement of growth and prices accelerated in the U.S. during the 21st century and may be responsible for the ...
Working Papers , Paper 20-41

Working Paper
Capital goods trade, relative prices, and economic development
Sposi, Michael; Ravikumar, B.; Mutreja, Piyusha (2016-12-01)
International trade in capital goods has quantitatively important effects on economic development through two channels: capital formation and aggregate TFP. We embed a multi country, multi sector Ricardian model of trade into a neoclassical growth framework. Our model matches several trade and development facts within a unified framework: the world distribution of capital goods production and trade, cross-country differences in investment rate and price of final goods, and cross-country equalization of price of capital goods. Reducing barriers to trade capital goods allows poor countries to ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 294

Working Paper
Capital goods trade and economic development
Ravikumar, B.; Mutreja, Piyusha; Sposi, Michael (2014-05-16)
We argue that international trade in capital goods has quantitatively important effects on economic development through two channels: (i) capital formation and (ii) aggregate TFP. We embed a multi country, multi sector Ricardian model of trade into a neoclassical growth model. Barriers to trade result in a misallocation of factors both within and across countries. Our model matches several trade and development facts within a unified framework. It is consistent with the world distribution of capital goods production, cross-country differences in investment rate and price of final goods, and ...
Working Papers , Paper 2014-12

Report
Transitional Dynamics in Aggregate Models of Innovative Investment
Burstein, Ariel; Chatzikonstantinou, Manolis; Atkeson, Andrew (2018-11-30)
What quantitative lessons can we learn from models of endogenous technical change through innovative investments by firms for the impact of changes in the economic environment on the dynamics of aggregate productivity in the short, medium, and long run? We present a unifying model that nests a number of canonical models in the literature and characterize their positive implications for the transitional dynamics of aggregate productivity and their welfare implications in terms of two sufficient statistics. We review the current state of measurement of these two sufficient statistics and ...
Staff Report , Paper 573

show more (36)

PREVIOUS / NEXT

Fed in Print

Search Results

FILTER BY year

FILTER BY Bank

FILTER BY Series

FILTER BY Content Type

FILTER BY Author

FILTER BY Jel Classification

FILTER BY Keywords