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Discussion Paper
By Degree(s): Measuring Employer Demand for AI Skills by Educational Requirements
Hodge, Nye; Ruder, Alexander; Galeano, Sergio (2025-05-21)
The rapid advancement of artificial intelligence (AI) has prompted widespread interest and discussion about its potential to transform the labor market. For workforce development practitioners, a key issue is how AI is changing the nature of work, mainly through changes in the skills workers need to be competitive for the jobs of today and of the future. In this Workforce Currents, we explore the growth of employer demand for AI skills in online job postings data between 2010 and 2024. Lightcast, a labor analytics firm, provides job postings data that includes several useful features of ...
Workforce Currents , Paper 2025-01

Journal Article
Digital Currency, Digital Payments, and the 'Last Mile' to the Unbanked
Shy, Oz (2021-08-02)
Digital forms of payment are either not accessible or highly costly for unbanked consumers. This is because these forms of payment must be "funded" by some source of money, such as cash or a bank account. That creates the "last-mile" problem for the unbanked. This article examines various solutions for the funding problem that have been proposed in the literature, by regulators, and in bills submitted to Congress.
Policy Hub , Volume 2021 , Issue 9 , Pages 9

Working Paper
Artificial Intelligence, Productivity, and the Workforce: Evidence from Corporate Executives
Meyer, Brent; Waddell, Sonya Ravindranath; Weitz, Daniel J.; Edwards, Zach; Baslandze, Salomé; McClure, Ty; Graham, John; Sparks, Michael (2026-03-25)
We use novel data from a survey of nearly 750 corporate executives to study the effects of artificial intelligence (AI) on productivity and the workforce. We document substantial heterogeneity in AI adoption across firms, with more than half having already invested, though many smaller firms are only beginning to do so. Labor productivity gains are positive, vary across sectors, and are expected to strengthen in 2026, with the largest effects concentrated in high-skill services and finance. These gains are not primarily driven by firms' capital deepening but instead reflect increases in ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2026-04

Working Paper
Innovation Booms, Easy Financing, and Human Capital Accumulation
Hombert, Johan; Matray, Adrien (2026-07-06)
Innovation booms are often fueled by easy financing, allowing new technology firms to pay high wages that attract skilled labor. Studying the information and communication technology (ICT) boom in the late 1990s, we show that high-skill workers who joined the ICT sector during the boom experienced sizeable long-term earnings losses. These earnings patterns stem from accelerated skill obsolescence rather than worker selection or the subsequent bust in the ICT sector. Moreover, during the boom, financing disproportionately flowed to firms whose workers would later experience the largest ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2026-8

Working Paper
Technological Change and Financial Innovation in Banking: Some Implications for Fintech
White, Lawrence J.; Frame, W. Scott; Wall, Larry D. (2018-10-01)
Financial intermediation has changed dramatically over the past 30 years, due in large part to technological change. The paper first describes the role of the financial system in a modern economy and how technological change and financial innovation can affect social welfare. We then survey the empirical literatures relating to several specific financial innovations, broadly categorized as new production processes, new products or services, or new organizational forms. In each case, we also include examples of significant fintech innovations that are transforming various aspects of banking. ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2018-11

Working Paper
Surveying Business Uncertainty
Meyer, Brent; Parker, Nicholas B.; Bloom, Nicholas; Barrero, Jose Maria; Altig, David E.; Davis, Steven J. (2020-02-01)
We elicit subjective probability distributions from business executives about their own-firm outcomes at a one-year look-ahead horizon. In terms of question design, our key innovation is to let survey respondents freely select support points and probabilities in five-point distributions over future sales growth, employment, and investment. In terms of data collection, we develop and field a new monthly panel Survey of Business Uncertainty (SBU). The SBU began in 2014 and now covers about 1,750 firms drawn from all 50 states, every major nonfarm industry, and a range of firm sizes. We find ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2019-13

Working Paper
Pandemic-Era Uncertainty on Main Street and Wall Street
Meyer, Brent; Parker, Nicholas B.; Bloom, Nicholas; Barrero, Jose Maria; Altig, David E.; Davis, Steven J.; Mihaylov, Emil (2021-01-15)
We draw on the monthly Survey of Business Uncertainty (SBU) to make three observations about pandemic-era uncertainty in the U.S. economy. First, equity market traders and executives of nonfinancial firms share similar assessments about uncertainty at one-year lookahead horizons. That is, the one-year VIX has moved similarly to our survey-based measure of (average) firm-level subjective uncertainty at one-year forecast horizons. Second, looking within the distribution of beliefs in the SBU reveals that firm-level expectations shifted towards upside risk in the latter part of 2020. In this ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2021-2

Report
Shaping the Future of Work: Workers’ Optimism and Pessimism about AI
Bracha, Anat; Tang, Jenny (2025-12-17)
The artificial intelligence (AI) revolution is here and is expected to transform the labor market, creating new opportunities for some workers while eliminating the jobs of others. At the end of 2024, the authors of this brief surveyed a sample of US household heads working in different industries and with different educational backgrounds to better understand how they view AI and its potential effects on their job prospects and financial well-being.
Current Policy Perspectives , Paper 25-16

Report
The equilibrium real policy rate through the lens of standard growth models
Sichel, Daniel E.; Wang, J. Christina (2017-11-17)
The long-run equilibrium real policy rate is a key concept in monetary economics and an important input into monetary policy decision-making. It has gained particular prominence lately as the Federal Reserve continues to normalize monetary policy. In this study, we assess the evolution, current level, and prospective values of this equilibrium rate within the framework of standard growth models. Our analysis considers as a baseline the single-sector Solow model, but it places more emphasis on the multi-sector neoclassical growth model, which better fits the data over the past three decades. ...
Current Policy Perspectives , Paper 17-6

Working Paper
Dotcom Price Spiral
Sampaio, Joelson Oliveira; de Carvalho, Antonio Gledson; Pinheiro, Roberto (2017-07-25)
We show that during the bubble implied growth rates coming from the underpricing of IPO market explains short term returns on the NASDAQ index. This result remains even if we replace actual underprice for others different instruments for underpricing that are based on predetermined variables and not correlated to market returns. We also do placebo tests to assess the relation between underpricing and NASDAQ returns over other periods. We show that growth proxies that are not contaminated by the booms and busts of the stock market are uncorrelated with the returns on the NASDAQ index in ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1713

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