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Working Paper
LOCALIZED KNOWLEDGE SPILLOVERS: EVIDENCE FROM THE AGGLOMERATION OF AMERICAN R&D LABS AND PATENT DATA
Carlino, Gerald A.; Smith, Tony E.; Carr, Jake; Hunt, Robert M.; Buzard, Kristy (2016-10-13)
Supercedes 15-03 We employ a unique data set to examine the spatial clustering of private R&D labs. Instead of using fixed spatial boundaries, we develop a new procedure for identifying the location and size of specific R&D clusters. Thus, we are better able to identify the spatial locations of clusters at various scales, such as a half mile, 1 mile, 5 miles, and more. Assigning patents and citations to these clusters, we capture the geographic extent of knowledge spillovers within them. Our tests show that the localization of knowledge spillovers, as measured via patent citations, is ...
Working Papers , Paper 16-25

Working Paper
The Diffusion of New Technologies
Lerner, Joshua; Hassan, Tarek A.; Bloom, Nicholas; Tahoun, Ahmed; Carvalho, Marcela; Kalyani, Aakash (2024-08-26)
CORRECT ORDER OF AUTHORS: Aakash Kalyani, Nicholas Bloom, Marcela Carvalho, Tarek Hassan, Josh Lerner, and Ahmed Tahoun. We identify phrases associated with novel technologies using textual analysis of patents, job postings, and earnings calls, enabling us to identify four stylized facts on the diffusion of jobs relating to new technologies. First, the development of economically impactful new technologies is geographically highly concentrated, more so even than overall patenting: 56% of the most economically impactful technologies come from just two U.S. locations, Silicon Valley and the ...
Working Papers , Paper 2024-009

Working Paper
Productivity Slowdown: Reducing the Measure of Our Ignorance
Li, Huiyu; Boppart, Timo (2021-08-22)
Growth accounting suggests that the bulk of the post-2004 slowdown in output growth in the U.S. is attributed to a residual called TFP. In this paper we provide a tractable accounting framework with firm heterogeneity to link this residual to innovations, markup dispersion, and potential measurement errors. Theories of creative destruction offer rich testable predictions of how the quality upgrading of products, the process efficiency of different firms, and markup dispersion in the market interact and therefore constitute a key approach to shed light on the slowdown in TFP growth. Surveying ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2021-21

Working Paper
Monetary Policy in a Model of Growth
Queraltó, Albert (2022-04-01)
Empirical evidence suggests that recessions have long-run effects on the economy's productive capacity. Recent literature embeds endogenous growth mechanisms within business cycle models to account for these "scarring" effects. The optimal conduct of monetary policy in these settings, however, remains largely unexplored. This paper augments the standard sticky-price New Keynesian (NK) to allow for endogenous dynamics in aggregate productivity. The model has a representation similar to the two-equation NK model, with an additional condition linking productivity growth to current and expected ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1340

Working Paper
Localized Knowledge Spillovers: Evidence from the Spatial Clustering of R&D Labs and Patent Citations
Carlino, Gerald A.; Smith, Tony E.; Carr, Jake; Hunt, Robert M.; Buzard, Kristy (2017-10-03)
Patent citations are a commonly used indicator of knowledge spillovers among inventors, while clusters of research and development labs are locations in which knowledge spillovers are particularly likely to occur. In this paper, we assign patents and citations to newly defined clusters of American R&D labs to capture the geographic extent of knowledge spillovers. Our tests show that the localization of knowledge spillovers, as measured via patent citations, is strongest at small spatial scales and diminishes rapidly with distance. On average, patents within a cluster are about three to six ...
Working Papers , Paper 17-32

Report
How Retrainable Are AI-Exposed Workers?
Hyman, Benjamin; Lahey, Benjamin; Ni, Karen; Pilossoph, Laura (2025-08-01)
We document the extent to which workers in AI-exposed occupations can successfully retrain for AI-intensive work. We assemble a new workforce development dataset spanning over 1.6 million job training participation spells from all U.S. Workforce Investment and Opportunity Act programs from 2012-2023 linked with occupational measures of AI exposure. Using earnings records observed before and after training, we compare high AI exposure trainees to a matched sample of similar workers who only received job search assistance. We find that AI-exposed workers have high earnings returns from training ...
Staff Reports , Paper 1165

Working Paper
North-South Technological Diffusion and Dynamic Gains from Trade
Valderrama, Diego; Connolly, Michelle P. (2005-07-01)
This paper studies the transitional dynamics in a quality ladder model of endogenous growth in which North-South trade leads to technological diffusion through reverse engineering of intermediate goods. The concept of learning-to-learn is incorporated into both imitative and innovative processes, which in turn drive domestic technological progress. International trade with imitation leads to feedback effects between Southern imitators and Northern innovators who compete for the world market. Consequently, both regions face transition paths dependent on their relative technologies. We solve ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2004-24

Working Paper
Financing Ventures
Han, Pengfei; Greenwood, Jeremy; Sanchez, Juan M. (2019-12-11)
The relationship between venture capital and growth is examined using an endogenous growth model incorporating dynamic contracts between entrepreneurs and venture capitalists. At each stage of financing, venture capitalists evaluate the viability of startups. If viable, venture capitalists provide funding for the next stage. The success of a project depends on the amount of funding. The model is confronted with stylized facts about venture capital; viz., statistics by funding round concerning the success rates, failure rates, investment rates, equity shares, and IPO values. Raising capital ...
Working Papers , Paper 2017-35

Working Paper
Generative AI at the Crossroads: Light Bulb, Dynamo, or Microscope?
Baily, Martin Neil; Byrne, David M.; Kane, Aidan T.; Soto, Paul E. (2025-07-17)
With the advent of generative AI (genAI), the potential scope of artificial intelligence has increased dramatically, but the future effect of genAI on productivity remains uncertain. The effect of the technology on the innovation process is a crucial open question. Some inventions, such as the light bulb, temporarily raise productivity growth as adoption spreads, but the effect fades when the market is saturated; that is, the level of output per hour is permanently higher but the growth rate is not. In contrast, two types of technologies stand out as having longer-lived effects on ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2025-053

Working Paper
Financing Ventures
Han, Pengfei; Greenwood, Jeremy; Sanchez, Juan M. (2021-11)
The relationship between venture capital and growth is examined using an endogenous growth model incorporating dynamic contracts between entrepreneurs and venture capitalists. At each stage of financing, venture capitalists evaluate the viability of startups. If viable, venture capitalists provide funding for the next stage. The success of a project depends on the amount of funding. The model is confronted with stylized facts about venture capital: statistics by funding round concerning success rates, failure rates, investment rates, equity shares, and IPO values. The increased efficiency ...
Working Papers , Paper 2017-035

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