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Report
Migration, Congestion Externalities, and the Evaluation of Spatial Investments
Schulhofer-Wohl, Sam; Dinkelman, Taryn (2015-01-09)
The direct benefits of infrastructure in developing countries can be large, but if new infrastructure induces in-migration, congestion of other local publicly provided goods may offset the direct benefits. Using the example of rural household electrification in South Africa, we demonstrate the importance of accounting for migration when evaluating welfare gains of spatial programs. We also provide a practical approach to computing welfare gains that does not rely on land prices. We develop a location choice model that incorporates missing land markets and allows for congestion in local land. ...
Staff Report , Paper 506

Working Paper
Floating Population: Migration With(Out) Family and the Spatial Distribution of Economic Activity
Imbert, Clément; Monras, Joan; Seror, Marlon; Zylberberg, Yanos (2023-08-30)
This paper argues that migrants’ decision to bring their dependent family members shapes their consumption behavior, their choice of destination, and their sensitivity to migration barriers. We document that in China: (i) rural migrants disproportionately move to expensive cities; (ii) in these cities they live without their family and in poorer housing conditions; and (iii) they remit more, especially when living without their family. We then develop a quantitative general equilibrium spatial model in which migrant households choose whether, how (with or without their family), and where to ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2023-26

Working Paper
Subnational Bilateral Remittance Flows in the U.S.-Mexico Corridor: A Multi-Source Imputation and Validation
Flores, Miguel; Cañas, Jesus (2026-08-03)
More than $65 billion annually flows through Mexico’s remittance corridor, the largest such pathway in the Western Hemisphere. Yet, the distribution of these flows across regions and the implications for financial inclusion—or alternatively, perpetuating inequality—remain poorly understood. This paper exploits bilateral remittance flows between U.S. and Mexican states during 2013–25 to construct and validate a multi-source origin–destination framework linking Banco de México’s U.S.-state outflows with Mexican state-level receipts. We develop allocation matrices from consular ...
Working Papers , Paper 2621

Working Paper
Outsourcing Policy and Worker Outcomes: Causal Evidence from a Mexican Ban
Estefan, Alejandro; Gerhard, Roberto; Kaboski, Joseph P.; Kondo, Illenin O.; Qian, Wei (2024-01-17)
A weakening of labor protection policies is often invoked as one cause of observed monopsony power and the decline in labor’s share of income, but little evidence exists on the causal impact of labor policies on wage markdowns. Using confidential Mexican economic census data from 1994 to 2019, we document a rising trend over this period in on-site outsourcing. Then, leveraging data from a manufacturing panel survey from 2013 to 2023 and a natural experiment featuring a ban on domestic outsourcing in 2021, we show that the ban drastically reduced outsourcing, increased wages, and reduced ...
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers , Paper 084

Working Paper
The Macroeconomic Effects of Neighborhood Policies: A Dynamic Analysis
Fogli, Alessandra; Guerrieri, Veronica; Ponder, Mark; Prato, Marta (2026-06-23)
We study the macroeconomic effects of neighborhood-specific policies in a general equilibrium model of a city with endogenous residential sorting and educational investment. A key feature of the model is the presence of endogenous local spillovers that depend on the distribution of families across neighborhoods. We analyze three policies: a housing-voucher policy inspired by the MTO program, which enables poor families to relocate to low-poverty neighborhoods; a place-based transfer (PBT) policy that provides monetary transfers to families in poor neighborhoods; and a place-based investment ...
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers , Paper 129

Report
The Welfare Effects of Encouraging Rural-Urban Migration
Lagakos, David; Mobarak, Mushfiq; Waugh, Michael E. (2022-01-04)
This paper studies the welfare effects of encouraging rural-urban migration in the developing world. To do so, we build and analyze a dynamic general-equilibrium model of migration that features a rich set of migration motives. We estimate the model to replicate the results of a field experiment that subsidized seasonal migration in rural Bangladesh, leading to significant increases in migration and consumption. We show that the welfare gains from migration subsidies come from providing better insurance for vulnerable rural households rather than correcting spatial misallocation by relaxing ...
Staff Report , Paper 635

Working Paper
College Access and Attendance Patterns: A Long-Run View
Herrington, Christopher; Hendricks, Lutz; Schoellman, Todd (2018-07-02)
We harmonize the results of 42 different data sets and studies dating back to the early 20th century to construct a time series of college attendance patterns for the United States. We find an important reversal around the time of World War II: before that time, family characteristics such as income were the better predictor of college attendance; afterwards, academic ability was the better predictor. We construct a model of college choice that can explain this reversal. The model's central mechanism is an exogenous rise in the demand for college that leads better colleges to become ...
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers , Paper 10

Working Paper
Internal Migration in the United States: A Comparative Assessment of the Utility of the Consumer Credit Panel
Whitaker, Stephan; Johnson, Janna; DeWaard, Jack (2018-03-23)
This paper demonstrates that credit bureau data, such as the Federal Reserve Bank of New York Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax (CCP), can be used to study internal migration in the United States. It is comparable to, and in some ways superior to, the standard data used to study migration, including the American Community Survey (ACS), the Current Population Survey (CPS), and the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) county-to-county migration data. CCP-based estimates of migration intensity, connectivity, and spatial focusing are similar to estimates derived from the ACS, CPS, and IRS data. The CCP can ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1804

How Is the Challenge of Finding Childcare Affecting Labor Force Participation? Perspectives from Employers Across the Seventh District
Longworth, Susan; Walstrum, Thomas; Lavelle, Martin (2024-02)
Through the Chicago Fed Survey of Economic Conditions (CFSEC) and during roundtable discussions with business, nonprofit, and government leaders, the Chicago Fed asked employers from a variety of sectors for their perspectives on how childcare access has affected labor force availability.1 These survey and roundtable findings contribute to the Chicago Fed’s Spotlight on Childcare—an effort to increase our understanding of how the lack of access to childcare impedes labor force participation in the Seventh Federal Reserve District. In this article, we summarize the responses from over 100 ...
Chicago Fed Insights

Working Paper
Internal Migration in the United States: A Comprehensive Comparative Assessment of the Consumer Credit Panel
Whitaker, Stephan; Johnson, Janna; DeWaard, Jack (2019-06-21)
We introduce and provide the first comprehensive comparative assessment of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York/Equifax Consumer Credit Panel (CCP) as a valuable and underutilized data set for studying internal migration within the United States. Relative to other data sources on US internal migration, the CCP permits highly detailed cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses of migration, both temporally and geographically. We compare cross-sectional and longitudinal estimates of migration from the CCP to similar estimates derived from the American Community Survey, the Current Population ...
Working Papers , Paper 18-04R

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