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Journal Article
TFP, Capital Deepening, and Gains from Trade
Ravikumar, B.; Santacreu, Ana Maria; Sposi, Michael (2023-07-14)
Using a dynamic, multicountry model with capital accumulation, we compute the exact transition paths for 93 countries following a permanent, uniform, unanticipated trade liberalization and calculate the resulting welfare gains from trade. We find that while the dynamic gains are different across countries, consumption transition paths look similar except for scale. In addition, dynamic gains accrue gradually and are about 60 percent of steady-state gains for everycountry. Finally, the contribution of capital accumulation to dynamic gains is four times that of total factor productivity.
Review , Volume 105 , Issue 3 , Pages 150-176

Working Paper
Trade Risk and Food Security
Leibovici, Fernando; Adamopoulos, Tasso (2024-02)
We study the role of international trade risk for food security, the patterns of production and trade across sectors, and its implications for policy. We document that food import dependence across countries is associated with higher food insecurity, particularly in low-income countries. We provide causal evidence on the role of trade risk for food security by exploiting the exogeneity of the Ukraine-Russia war as a major trade disruption limiting access to imports of critical food products. Using micro-level data from Ethiopia, we empirically show that districts relatively more exposed to ...
Working Papers , Paper 2024-004

Working Paper
Natural Resources and Global Misallocation
Santaeulalia-Llopis, Raul; Monge-Naranjo, Alexander; Sanchez, Juan M. (2015-07-07)
We explore the efficiency in the allocation of physical capital and human capital across countries. The observed marginal products can differ across countries because of differences in technology (i.e. production functions) and in distortions (i.e. differences in use of factors) across countries. To identify differences in technology, we use new data and propose a simple method to estimate output shares of natural resources, and thus adjust the estimated marginal products of physical and human capital. With a sample of 79 countries from 1970 to 2005, we find that the world has decidedly moved ...
Working Papers , Paper 2015-13

Working Paper
The great housing boom of China
Chen, Kaiji; Wen, Yi (2015-11-01)
China's housing prices have been growing nearly twice as fast as national income in the past decade despite (1) a phenomenal rate of return to capital and (2) an alarmingly high vacancy rate. This paper interprets such a prolonged paradoxical housing boom as a rational bubble that emerges naturally from China's large-scale economic transition, featuring an exceptionally high rate of return to capital driven by massive resource reallocation. Because such primarily resource-reallocation-driven high capital returns are not sustainable in the long run, expectations of high future demand for ...
FRB Atlanta CQER Working Paper , Paper 2015-3

Working Paper
Fewer but Better : Sudden Stops, Firm Entry, and Financial Selection
Saffie, Felipe; Ates, Sina T. (2016-11)
We incorporate endogenous technical change into a real business cycle small open economy framework to study the productivity costs of sudden stops. In this economy, productivity growth is determined by the entry of new firms and the expansion decisions of incumbent firms. New firms are created after the implementation of business ideas, yet the quality of ideas is heterogeneous and good ideas are scarce. Selection of the most promising ideas gives rise to a trade-off between mass (quantity) and composition (quality) in the entrant cohort. Chilean plant-level data from the sudden stop ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1187

Working Paper
Escaping the Middle-Income Trap: A Cross-Country Analysis on the Patterns of Industrial Upgrading
Wen, Yi; Wang, Lili (2018-01-16)
With rapid industrial upgrading along the global value chain of manufactured goods, China has transformed, within one generation, from an impoverished agrarian society to a middle-income nation as well as the largest manufacturing powerhouse in the world. This article identifies the pattern of China?s industrial upgrading and compares it with those of other successfully industrialized economies and the failed ones. We find that (i) China (since 1978) followed essentially the same path of industrial upgrading as that of Japan and the ?Asian Tigers.? These economies succeeded in catching up ...
Working Papers , Paper 2018-1

Journal Article
Should Capital Flow from Rich to Poor Countries?
Santaeulalia-Llopis, Raul; Monge-Naranjo, Alexander; Sanchez, Juan M.; Sohail, Faisal (2019)
Are human and physical capital stocks allocated efficiently across countries? To answer this question, we need to differentiate misallocation from factor intensity differences. We use newly available estimates on factor shares from Monge-Naranjo, Santaeullia-Llopis, and Snchez (2019) to correctly measure the factor shares of physical and human capital for a large number of countries and periods. We find that the global efficiency losses of the misallocation of human capital are much more substantial than those of physical capital, amounting to 40 percent of the world?s output. Moreover, ...
Review , Volume 101 , Issue 4 , Pages 277-295

Working Paper
Why are Manufacturing Plants Smaller in Developing Countries? Theory and Evidence from India
Jain, Anil K.; Kothari, Siddharth (2025-08-25)
Poorer countries (and poorer states within India) have a larger share of manufacturing employment in small plants. This paper presents empirical evidence and a theoretical model to show that this relationship is driven by greater demand for lower quality goods in poorer regions, which can be produced efficiently in small plants. First, using data for India, we show that richer households buy higher price goods and larger plants produce higher price products. Second, we develop a model that matches these facts. Finally, we find that our model explains about forty percent of the cross-state ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1417

Working Paper
Technology and the Task Content of Jobs across the Development Spectrum
Keller, Elisa; Shin, Yongseok; Caunedo, Julieta (2022-09-29)
The tasks workers perform on the job are informative about the direction and the impact of technological change. We harmonize occupational task content measures between two worker-level surveys, which separately cover developing and developed countries. Developing countries use routine-cognitive tasks and routine-manual tasks more intensively than developed countries, but less intensively use non-routine analytical tasks and non-routine interpersonal tasks. This is partly because developing countries have more workers in occupations with high routine contents and fewer workers in occupations ...
Working Papers , Paper 2022-035

Working Paper
Structural Change in Sub-Saharan Africa: An Open Economy Perspective
de Vries, Gaaitzen; Yi, Kei-Mu; Mensah, Emmanuel; Kruse, Hagen; Vidogbena, Yabo (2024-12-24)
We study the evolution of manufacturing value added shares in 11 sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries through the lens of an open economy model of structural change. Our analysis leverages recent developments in input-output tables in SSA countries. Our model allows for income effects via non-homothetic preferences, substitution and relative price effects, as well as comparative advantage and specialization effects. We calibrate our model to include each SSA country with nine other major economies for each year between 2000 and 2018. We also do a similar set of calibrations for 11 developing ...
Working Papers , Paper 2418

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