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Working Paper
COVID-19 and SMEs: A 2021 "Time Bomb"?
Penciakova, Veronika; Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem; Sander, Nick; Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier (2021-01-29)
This paper assesses the prospects of a 2021 time bomb in small and medium-sized enterprises (SME) failures triggered by the generous support policies enacted during the 2020 COVID-19 crisis. Policies implemented in 2020, on their own, do not create a 2021 time bomb for SMEs. Rather, business failures and policy costs remain modest. By contrast, credit contraction poses significant risk. Such a contraction would disproportionately affect firms that could have survived COVID-19 in 2020 without any fiscal support. Even in that scenario, most business failures would not arise from excessively ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2021-6

Working Paper
Firm Entry and Macroeconomic Dynamics: A State-level Analysis
Siemer, Michael; Gourio, Francois; Messer, Todd (2016-02)
Using an annual panel of US states over the period 1982-2014, we estimate the response of macroeconomic variables to a shock to the number of new firms (startups). We find that these shocks have significant effects that persist for many years on real GDP, productivity, and population. This result is consistent with simple models of firm dynamics where a ?missing generation? of firms affects productivity persistently.
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2016-043

Working Paper
Synergizing Ventures
Greenwood, Jeremy; Dinlersoz, Emin M.; Akcigit, Ufuk; Penciakova, Veronika (2019-09-01)
Venture capital (VC) and growth are examined both empirically and theoretically. Empirically, VC-backed startups have higher early growth rates and initial patent quality than non-VC-backed ones. VC backing increases a startup's likelihood of reaching the right tails of the firm size and innovation distributions. Furthermore, outcomes are better for startups matched with more experienced venture capitalists. An endogenous growth model, where venture capitalists provide both expertise and financing for business startups, is constructed to match these facts. The presence of venture capital, the ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2019-17

Journal Article
An Elementary Model of VC Financing and Growth
Han, Pengfei; Greenwood, Jeremy; Sanchez, Juan M.; Inokuma, Hiroshi (2023-01-20)
This article uses an endogenous growth model to study how the improvements in financing for innovative start-ups brought by venture capital (VC) affect firm innovation and growth. Partial equilibrium results show how lending contracts change as financing efficiency improves, while general equilibrium results show that better screening and development of projects by VC investors leads to higher aggregate productivity growth.
Review , Volume 105 , Issue 1 , Pages 66-73

Working Paper
Getting Schooled: The Role of Universities in Attracting Immigrant Entrepreneurs
Amornsiripanitch, Natee; Gompers, Paul; Hu, George; Vasudevan, Kaushik (2022-08-08)
We study immigrant founders of venture-capital backed firms using a new and detailed data set that we assemble on the backgrounds of founders. Immigrant founders have been critical to the entrepreneurial ecosystem, accounting for roughly 20% of all venture capital-backed founders over the past 30 years. We document the channels through which immigrant founders arrive in the United States and how those channels have changed over time. Higher education has served as the primary entry channel for immigrant founders. The share of foreign-educated immigrant founders who initially arrive for work ...
Working Papers , Paper 22-19

Report
The Great Recession, entrepreneurship, and productivity performance
Diez, Federico J. (2014-11-01)
In recent years, it is argued, the level of entrepreneurial activity in the United States has declined, causing concern because of its potential macroeconomic implications. In particular, it is feared that a lower rate of firm creation may be associated with lower productivity growth and, hence, lower economic growth in the coming years. This paper studies the issue, focusing on the dynamics of entrepreneurship and productivity around the time of the Great Recession. The author looks first at the recent evolution of alternative measures of entrepreneurship and of productivity, and then ...
Current Policy Perspectives , Paper 14-8

Working Paper
An Estimated Structural Model of Entrepreneurial Behavior
Pratap, Sangeeta; Jones, John Bailey (2017-05-08)
Using a rich panel of owner-operated New York dairy farms, we provide new evidence on entrepreneurial behavior. We formulate a dynamic model of farms facing uninsured risks and financial constraints. Farmers derive nonpecuniary benefits from operating their businesses. We estimate the model via simulated minimum distance, matching both production and financial data. We find that financial factors and nonpecuniary benefits are of first-order importance. Collateral constraints and liquidity restrictions inhibit borrowing and the accumulation of capital. The nonpecuniary benefits to farming are ...
Working Paper , Paper 17-7

Journal Article
On the Aggregate Implications of Removing Barriers to Formality
Hamann, Franz; Granda Carvajal, Catalina (2020-05)
This article examines the aggregate implications of several policies aimed at removing barriers to formality. To this end, we build a dynamic equilibrium model in which heterogeneous agents choose to work for a wage or operate a technology in the formal or informal sector, based on the costs and benefits associated with these occupational choices.
Review , Volume 102 , Issue 2 , Pages 203-220

Working Paper
High-Growth Firms in the United States: Key Trends and New Data Opportunities
Kim, J. Daniel; Choi, Joonkyu; Goldschlag, Nathan; Haltiwanger, John (2024-09-20)
Using administrative data from the U.S. Census Bureau, we introduce a new public-use database that tracks activities across firm growth distributions over time. With these new data, we uncover several key trends for high-growth firms---critical engines of innovation and economic growth. First, the share of firms that are high-growth has steadily decreased over the past four decades, driven not only by falling rates of entrepreneurship but also languishing growth among existing firms. Second, this decline is particularly pronounced among young and small firms, while the share of high-growth ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2024-074

Working Paper
Business Dynamics in the National Establishment Time Series (NETS)/Leland Crane, Ryan Decker
Decker, Ryan A.; Crane, Leland D. (2019-05-13)
Business microdata have proven useful in a number of fields, but the main sources of comprehensive microdata are subject to significant confidentiality restrictions. A growing number of papers instead use a private data source seeking to cover the universe of U.S. business establishments, the National Establishment Time Series (NETS). Previous research documents the representativeness of NETS in terms of the distribution of employment and establishment counts across industry, geography, and establishment size. But there exists considerable need among researchers for microdata suitable for ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2019-034

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