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Working Paper
The Business Cycle Mechanics of Search and Matching Models
Bernstein, Joshua; Throckmorton, Nathaniel A.; Richter, Alexander W. (2020-08-25)
This paper estimates a real business cycle model with unemployment driven by shocks to labor productivity and the job separation rate. We make two contributions. First, we develop a new identification scheme based on the matching elasticity that allows the model to perfectly match a range of labor market moments, including the volatilities of unemployment and vacancies. Second, we use our model to revisit the importance of shocks to the job separation rate and highlight how their correlation with labor productivity affects their transmission mechanism.
Working Papers , Paper 2026

Working Paper
Mismatch Unemployment During COVID-19 and the Post-Pandemic Labor Shortages
Mercan, Yusuf; See, Kurt; Birinci, Serdar (2024-09-19)
We examine the extent to which mismatch unemployment—employment losses relative to an efficient allocation where the planner can costlessly reallocate unemployed workers across sectors to maximize output—shaped labor market dynamics during the COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent recovery episode characterized by labor shortages. We find that, for the first time in our sample, mismatch unemployment turned negative at the onset of the pandemic. This result suggests that the efficient allocation of job seekers would involve reallocating workers toward longer-tenure and more-productive jobs, ...
Working Papers , Paper 2024-025

Working Paper
Employment Dynamics in a Signaling Model with Workers' Incentives
Weingarden, Alison E. (2017-04)
Many firms adjust employment in a "lumpy" manner -- infrequently and in large bursts. In this paper, I show that lumpy adjustments can arise from concerns about the incentives of remaining workers. Specifically, I develop a model in which a firm's productivity depends on its workers' effort and workers' income prospects depend on the firm's profitability. I use this model to analyze the consequences of demand shocks that are observed by the firm but not by its workers, who can only try to infer the firm's profitability from its employment decisions. I show that the resulting signaling model ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2017-040

Working Paper
Interlocked Executives and Insider Board Members: An Empirical Analysis
Miller, Robert A.; Gayle, George-Levi; Golan, Limor (2015-11-27)
This paper asked the question of whether the behavior and compensation of interlocked executives and non-independent board of directors are consistent with the hypothesis of governance problem or whether this problem is mitigated by implicit and market incentives. It then analyzes the role of independent board of directors. Empirically, we cannot reject the hypothesis that executives in companies with a large number of non-independent directors on the board receive the same expected compensation as other executives. In our model, every executive has an incentive to work. Placing more of ...
Working Papers , Paper 2015-40

Working Paper
Uncovering the Differences among Displaced Workers: Evidence from Canadian Job Separation Records
See, Kurt; Birinci, Serdar; Pugh, Thomas; Park, Youngmin (2023-10)
We revisit the measurement of the sources and consequences of job displacement using Canadian job separation records. To circumvent administrative data limitations, conventional approaches address selection by identifying displacement effects through mass-layoff separations, which are interpreted as involuntary. We refine this procedure and find that only a quarter of mass-layoff separations are indeed layoffs. Isolating mass-layoff separations that reflect involuntary displacement, we find twice the earnings losses relative to existing estimates. We uncover heterogeneity in losses for ...
Working Papers , Paper 2023-022

Working Paper
Occupational Licensing and Occupational Mobility
Jackson, Osborne (2023-09-01)
This paper estimates the impact of occupational licensing at the extensive margin (existence) and intensive margin (qualifications) on the occupational mobility of US workers. Using 2015–2022 Current Population Survey data on worker occupational choices matched to licensing-policy data, I show that the existence of licensing regulation significantly reduces the probability that a worker enters an occupation. This reduced mobility is largely due to licensing fees and minimum thresholds for age and education. This finding may help explain the weak relationship between licensure and product ...
Working Papers , Paper 23-18

Working Paper
The Ways the Cookie Crumbles: Education and the Margins of Cyclical Adjustment in the Labor Market
Doniger, Cynthia L. (2021-03-19)
I document that less educated workers experience higher and more cyclically sensitive job separation rates. Meanwhile, workers with a bachelor's degree or more exhibit pro-cyclical wages while workers without a high school degree exhibit no statistically discernible cyclical pattern. Differences in the sensitivity are most stark when measurement of labor costs accounts for the value of the persistent effects of current macroeconomic conditions on future remitted wages. These findings suggest optimally differential implementation of self-enforcing implicit wage contracts in which educated ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2021-019

Working Paper
The Heterogeneous Impacts of Job Displacement: Evidence from Canadian Job Separation Records
See, Kurt; Birinci, Serdar; Park, Youngmin (2024-11-13)
When estimating earnings losses upon job separations, existing strategies focus on mass-layoff separations to distinguish involuntary separations from voluntary separations. We revisit the measurement of the sources and consequences of involuntary separations using Canadian job separation records. We refine existing strategies and find that only a quarter of mass-layoff separations are indeed layoffs. Isolating mass-layoff separations that reflect involuntary displacement, we find twice the earnings losses relative to existing estimates. We also uncover significant heterogeneity in losses for ...
Working Papers , Paper 2023-022

Working Paper
Choosing a Control Group for Displaced Workers
Krolikowski, Pawel (2016-02-02)
The vast majority of studies on the earnings of displaced workers use a control group of continuously employed workers to examine the effects of initial displacements. This approach implies long-lived earnings reductions following displacement even if these effects are not persistent, overstating the losses relative to the true average treatment effect. This paper?s approach isolates the impact of an average displacement without imposing continuous employment on the control group. In a comparison of the standard and alternative approaches using PSID data, the estimated long-run earnings ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1605

Working Paper
Job Heterogeneity and Aggregate Labor Market Fluctuations
Krolikowski, Pawel (2019-02-01)
This paper disciplines a model with search over match quality using microeconomic evidence on worker mobility patterns and wage dynamics. In addition to capturing these individual data, the model provides an explanation for aggregate labor market patterns. Poor match quality among first jobs implies large fluctuations in unemployment due to a responsive job destruction margin. Endogenous job destruction generates a burst of layoffs at the onset of a recession and, together with on-the-job search, generates a negative comovement between unemployment and vacancies. A significant job ladder, ...
Working Papers , Paper 19-04

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