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Discussion Paper
Assisting Firms during a Crisis: Benefits and Costs
Wall, Larry D. (2020-08-10)
Public and private efforts to reduce COVID-19 infection levels have led to a sharp drop in economic activity around the world. In an attempt to mitigate the damage to businesses, governments around the world have implemented a variety of financial programs to help firms. These programs have been criticized as interfering with markets, providing bailouts, and creating adverse incentives. In this article, I review both the rationale for government-provided assistance and the costs of providing that assistance from the perspective of how that aid effects the likely level and volatility of ...
Policy Hub* , Paper 2020-10

Journal Article
Assisting Firms during a Crisis: Benefits and Costs
Wall, Larry D. (2020-08-10)
Public and private efforts to reduce COVID-19 infection levels have led to a sharp drop in economic activity around the world. In an attempt to mitigate the damage to businesses, governments around the world have implemented a variety of financial programs to help firms. These programs have been criticized as interfering with markets, providing bailouts, and creating adverse incentives. In this article, I review both the rationale for government-provided assistance and the costs of providing that assistance from the perspective of how that aid effects the likely level and volatility of ...
Policy Hub , Volume 2020 , Issue 10 , Pages 18

Working Paper
The Effect of Unemployment Insurance Eligibility in Equilibrium
Griffy, Benjamin; Chao, Ying; Wiczer, David (2025-07-14)
In the United States, workers whose past earnings were below a threshold are generally ineligible for unemployment insurance (UI), creating a discontinuous jump in the value of being unemployed. Using a regression discontinuity design with administrative panel data, we estimate a sizable local effect from UI eligibility on earnings in the next employer, around 10 percent per quarter. This evidence, however, understates UI’s causal effect because of endogenous non-compliance. It also does not distinguish between underlying reasons for higher re-employment earnings, a higher share of ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2025-6

Working Paper
COVID-19 Is a Persistent Reallocation Shock
Meyer, Brent; Davis, Steven J.; Bloom, Nicholas; Barrero, Jose Maria (2021-01-15)
Drawing on data from the firm-level Survey of Business Uncertainty, we present three pieces of evidence that COVID-19 is a persistent reallocation shock. First, rates of excess job and sales reallocation over 24-month periods have risen sharply since the pandemic struck, especially for sales. We compute these rates by aggregating over monthly firm-level observations that look back 12 months and ahead 12 months. Second, as of December 2020, firm-level forecasts of sales revenue growth over the next year imply a continuation of recent changes, not a reversal. Third, COVID-19 shifted relative ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2021-3

Working Paper
High Discounts and Low Fundamental Surplus: An Equivalence Result for Unemployment Fluctuations
Seo, Taeuk; Mitra, Indrajit; Xu, Yu (2021-09-24)
Ljungqvist and Sargent (2017) (LS) show that unemployment fluctuations can be understoodin terms of a quantity they call the “fundamental surplus.” However, their analysis ignores riskpremia, a force that Hall (2017) shows is important in understanding unemployment fluctuations. Weshow how the LS framework can be adapted to incorporate risk premia. We derive an equivalenceresult that relates parameters in economies with risk premia to those of an artificial economy withoutrisk premia. We show how to use properties of the artificial economy to deduce how risk premia affectunemployment ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2021-22

Report
Sectoral Mobility during the COVID-19 Pandemic
Jackson, Osborne; Cox, Catherine (2022-12-07)
This study uses the longitudinal design of the US Current Population Survey to describe sectoral mobility trends for workers before and after the emergence of COVID-19. We find a small increase in the 15-month rate of workers who switched industries following the onset of the pandemic, likely driven by workers who did not have an unemployment stint following job separation. However, larger changes in sectoral mobility during this time are evident when we examine differences across regions, industries, and individuals who are stratified by characteristics such as sex, age, or education. These ...
Current Policy Perspectives

Report
Occupational Licensing and Occupational Mobility in New England
Jackson, Osborne (2023-12-01)
Occupational licensing—mandatory credentialing that allows a worker to practice a particular profession—varies greatly throughout New England and the United States in terms of which occupations require a license in a given state and the scope of the necessary qualifications. Given a growing share of US workers who are licensed, it is increasingly important to understand how these differences in licensing policy affect markets. Such knowledge can then be used to guide how occupational licensing regulations are structured. The research in this report shows that a labor market implication of ...
New England Public Policy Center Research Report , Paper 23-1

Working Paper
Downskilling: changes in employer skill requirements over the business cycle
Ballance, Joshua; Modestino, Alicia Sasser; Shoag, Daniel (2016-02-29)
Using a novel database of 82.5 million online job postings, we show that employer skill requirements fell as the labor market improved from 2010 to 2014. We find that a 1 percentage point reduction in the local unemployment rate is associated with a roughly 0.27 percentage point reduction in the fraction of jobs requiring at least a bachelor?s degree and a roughly 0.23 percentage point reduction in the fraction requiring five or more years of experience. This pattern is established using multiple measures of labor availability, is bolstered by similar trends along heretofore unmeasured ...
Working Papers , Paper 16-9

Working Paper
Upskilling: do employers demand greater skill when skilled workers are plentiful?
Ballance, Joshua; Modestino, Alicia Sasser; Shoag, Daniel (2015-01-30)
The Great Recession and subsequent recovery have been particularly painful for low-skilled workers. From 2007 to 2012, the unemployment rate rose by 6.4 percentage points for noncollege workers while it rose by only 2.3 percentage points for the college educated. This differential impact was evident within occupations as well. One explanation for the differential impact may be the ability of highly skilled workers to take middle- and low-skilled jobs. Indeed, over this period the share of workers with a college degree in traditionally middle-skill occupations increased rapidly. Such growth in ...
Working Papers , Paper 14-17

Working Paper
Labor market polarization over the business cycle
Ryan, Richard W.; Foote, Christopher L. (2014-12-26)
One of the most important long-run trends in the U.S. labor market is polarization, defined as the relative growth of employment in high-skill jobs (such as management and technical positions) and low-skill jobs (such as food-service and janitorial work) amid the concurrent decline in middle-skill jobs (such as clerical, construction, manufacturing, and retail occupations). Middle-skill job losses typically result from outsourcing labor to lower-wage countries or from substituting automated technologies for routine tasks. Economists are now beginning to study how long-run polarization might ...
Working Papers , Paper 14-16

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