Search Results

(refine search)

SORT BY: PREVIOUS / NEXT

All:
Title:
Author:
Abstract:
Keywords:

+ Add Search Parameter

Working Paper
Labor-Market Uncertainty and Portfolio Choice Puzzles
Chang, Yongsung; Karabarbounis, Marios; Hong, Jay H. (2014-06-14)
The standard theory of household-portfolio choice is hard to reconcile with the following facts: (i) Households hold a small amount of equity despite the higher average rate of return. (ii) The share of risky assets increases with the age of the household. (iii) The share of risky assets is disproportionately larger for richer households. We develop a life-cycle model with age-dependent unemployment risk and gradual learning about the income profile that can address all three puzzles. Young workers, on average asset poor, face larger labor-market uncertainty because of high unemployment risk ...
Working Paper , Paper 14-13

Working Paper
Assessing the Change in Labor Market Conditions
Ratner, David; Chung, Hess T.; Nekarda, Christopher J.; Fallick, Bruce (2015-01-06)
This paper describes a dynamic factor model of 19 U.S. labor market indicators, covering the broad categories of unemployment and underemployment, employment, workweeks, wages, vacancies, hiring, layoffs, quits, and surveys of consumers? and businesses? perceptions. The resulting labor market conditions index (LMCI) is a useful tool for gauging the change in labor market conditions. In addition, the model provides a way to organize discussions of the signal value of different labor market indicators in situations when they might be sending diverse signals. The model takes the greatest signal ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1438

Working Paper
Measuring Labor-Force Participation and the Incidence and Duration of Unemployment
Ahn, Hie Joo; Hamilton, James D. (2019-05-17)
The underlying data from which the U.S. unemployment rate, labor-force participation rate, and duration of unemployment are calculated contain numerous internal contradictions. This paper catalogs these inconsistencies and proposes a reconciliation. We find that the usual statistics understate the unemployment rate and the labor-force participation rate by about two percentage points on average and that the bias in the latter has increased since the Great Recession. The BLS estimate of the average duration of unemployment overstates by 50% the true duration of uninterrupted spells of ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2019-035

Journal Article
Assessing the Risk of Extreme Unemployment Outcomes
Cook, Thomas R.; Doh, Taeyoung (2019-08-28)
Although the unemployment rate is at a historically low level, many policymakers are nevertheless watching projections for the future unemployment rate closely to evaluate the risk of extreme outcomes. We assess the probabilities of extreme outcomes in the near and medium term and find that the risk of unexpectedly high unemployment three years in the future has declined from its Great Recession peak and remained low over the past three years.
Economic Bulletin , Issue Aug 28, 2019 , Pages 4

Working Paper
Wage dynamics and labor market transitions: a reassessment through total income and “usual” wages
Canon, Maria E.; Pavan, Ronni (2014-10-30)
We present a simple on-the-job search model in which workers can receive shocks to their employer-specific c productivity match. Because the firm-specific match can vary, wages may increase or decrease over time at each employer. Therefore, for some workers, job-to-job transitions are a way to escape job situations that worsened over time. The contribution of our paper relies on our novel approach to identifying the presence of the shock to the match specific productivity. The presence two independent measures of workers compensation in our dataset of is crucial for our identification ...
Working Papers , Paper 2014-32

Working Paper
Estimating the Intergenerational Elasticity and Rank Association in the U.S.: Overcoming the Current Limitations of Tax Data
Mazumder, Bhashkar (2015-06-01)
Ideal estimates of the intergenerational elasticity (IGE) in income require a large panel of income data covering the entire working lifetimes for two generations. Previous studies have demonstrated that using short panels and covering only certain portions of the life cycle can lead to considerable bias. A recent influential study by Chetty et al. (2014) using tax data estimates the IGE in family income for the entire U.S. to be 0.344, considerably lower than most previous estimates. Despite the seeming advantages of extremely large samples of administrative tax data, I demonstrate that the ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2015-4

Working Paper
The Dual U.S. Labor Market Uncovered
Ahn, Hie Joo; Hobijn, Bart; Şahin, Ayşegül (2023-05-05)
Aggregate U.S. labor market dynamics are well approximated by a dual labor market supplemented with a third, predominantly, home-production segment. We uncover this structure by estimating a Hidden Markov Model, a machine-learning method. The different market segments are identified through (in-)equality constraints on labor market transition probabilities. This method yields time series of stocks and flows for the three segments for 1980-2021. Workers in the primary sector, who make up around 55 percent of the population, are almost always employed and rarely experience unemployment. The ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP 2023-18

Working Paper
Gentrification and residential mobility in Philadelphia
Ding, Lei; Divringi, Eileen; Hwang, Jackelyn (2015-10-15)
Gentrification has provoked considerable debate and controversy about its effects on neighborhoods and the people residing in them. This paper draws on a unique large-scale consumer credit database to examine the mobility patterns of residents in gentrifying neighborhoods in the city of Philadelphia from 2002 to 2014. We find significant heterogeneity in the effects of gentrification across neighborhoods and subpopulations. Residents in gentrifying neighborhoods have slightly higher mobility rates than those in nongentrifying neighborhoods, but they do not have a higher risk of moving to a ...
Working Papers , Paper 15-36

Working Paper
Failing Just Fine: Assessing Careers of Venture Capital-backed Entrepreneurs via a Non-Wage Measure
Amornsiripanitch, Natee; Gompers, Paul; Hu, George; Abbott, Graham J.; Levinson, Will; Mukharlyamov, Vladimir (2023-08-28)
This paper proposes a non-pecuniary measure of career achievement: seniority. Based on a database of over 130 million resumes, this metric exploits the variation in how long it takes to attain job titles. When non-monetary factors influence career choice, assessing career attainment via non-wage measures, such as seniority, has significant advantages. Accordingly, we use our seniority measure to study labor market outcomes of VC-backed entrepreneurs. Would-be founders experience accelerated career trajectories prior to founding, significantly outperforming graduates from same-tier colleges ...
Working Papers , Paper 23-17

Working Paper
www.LaborMarketUpdate.net: Real-Time Research-Based Analyses of the State of the U.S. Labor Market
Hobijn, Bart; Sahin, Aysegul (2025-08-01)
This paper introduces www.labormarketupdate.net, a new website that delivers real-time analyses of the U.S. labor market grounded in our applied macro-labor research agenda. We explain how the site’s resources can be used to track labor market developments through the lens of a stylized labor-market cycle.
Working Paper Series , Paper WP 2025-12

show more (41)

PREVIOUS / NEXT

Fed in Print

Search Results

FILTER BY year

FILTER BY Bank

FILTER BY Series

FILTER BY Content Type

FILTER BY Author

FILTER BY Jel Classification

FILTER BY Keywords