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Journal Article
Work, Leisure, and Family: From the Silent Generation to Millennials
Gayle, George-Levi; Odio-Zúñiga, Mariana; Ramakrishnan, Prasanthi (2021-10-18)
This article analyzes the changes in family structure, fertility behavior, and the division of labor within the household from the Silent generation (cohort born in 1940-49) to the Millennial generation (cohort born in 1980-89). Using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, this article documents the main trends and life-cycle profiles for each generation. The main findings are that (i) the wage-age profile has been shifting down over generations, especially for Millennial men; (ii) the returns to a four-year college degree or higher for men have increased for all generations; (iii) ...
Review , Volume 103 , Issue 4 , Pages 385-424

Discussion Paper
The Post‑COVID Decline in the Labor Share
Audoly, Richard; Guerin, Miles; Narayanan, Srinidhi; Schuh, Rachel (2026-06-24)
The labor share of income in the U.S. is currently at its lowest-ever level in the post-war period. The labor share measures the fraction of economic output paid to workers as wages and salaries. As such, it is a useful benchmark for wage growth: when the labor share falls, it means that productivity, prices, or both are growing faster than wages. After much-studied drops in the 2000s, the labor share fell sharply again after the COVID pandemic. In this post, we compare the dynamics of the labor share post-COVID to earlier periods to understand whether the recent decline represents the ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20260624

Working Paper
Wage dynamics and labor market transitions: a reassessment through total income and “usual” wages
Canon, Maria E.; Pavan, Ronni (2014-10-30)
We present a simple on-the-job search model in which workers can receive shocks to their employer-specific c productivity match. Because the firm-specific match can vary, wages may increase or decrease over time at each employer. Therefore, for some workers, job-to-job transitions are a way to escape job situations that worsened over time. The contribution of our paper relies on our novel approach to identifying the presence of the shock to the match specific productivity. The presence two independent measures of workers compensation in our dataset of is crucial for our identification ...
Working Papers , Paper 2014-32

Working Paper
Assessing Differences in Labor Market Outcomes Across Race, Age, and Educational Attainment
Research Department, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City (2017-04-01)
Broad indicators are often used to evaluate the health of the labor market but may mask disparities in outcomes across age, education, gender, and race. Understanding these disparate outcomes is part of the process of monitoring the labor market. As such, this paper summarizes work the research staff of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City has done to better understand differences in labor market outcomes. Some of these findings reinforce earlier work, while others offer novel perspectives. {{p}} First, differences in outcomes across race remain substantial. Despite a significant increase ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 17-3

Working Paper
Failing Just Fine: Assessing Careers of Venture Capital-backed Entrepreneurs via a Non-Wage Measure
Amornsiripanitch, Natee; Gompers, Paul; Hu, George; Abbott, Graham J.; Levinson, Will; Mukharlyamov, Vladimir (2023-08-28)
This paper proposes a non-pecuniary measure of career achievement: seniority. Based on a database of over 130 million resumes, this metric exploits the variation in how long it takes to attain job titles. When non-monetary factors influence career choice, assessing career attainment via non-wage measures, such as seniority, has significant advantages. Accordingly, we use our seniority measure to study labor market outcomes of VC-backed entrepreneurs. Would-be founders experience accelerated career trajectories prior to founding, significantly outperforming graduates from same-tier colleges ...
Working Papers , Paper 23-17

Working Paper
Wage Setting Under Targeted Search
Restrepo-Echavarria, Paulina; Cheremukhin, Anton A. (2023-05-03)
When setting initial compensation, some firms set a fixed, non-negotiable wage while others bargain. In this paper we propose a parsimonious search and matching model with two sided heterogeneity, where the choice of wage-setting protocol, wages, search intensity, and degree of randomness in matching are endogenous. We find that posting and bargaining coexist as wage-setting protocols if there is sufficient heterogeneity in match quality, search costs, or market tightness and that labor market tightness and relative costs of search play a key role in the choice of the wage-setting mechanism. ...
Working Papers , Paper 2020-041

Working Paper
Determinants of Expected Returns at Public Defined-Benefit Pension Plans
Goodell, John; Aggarwal, Raj (2015-05-21)
Estimated expected returns are important for pension plans, as they influence many plan characteristics including required asset levels, annual contributions, and the extent of plan under- or overfunding. Yet, there seems to be little prior literature on the factors influencing these estimated future returns. In an attempt to fill this gap, this paper presents the results of a panel analysis of data on the determinants of such returns used by US public defined-benefit (DB) pension plans for the period 2001?2011. As expected, we find that real return estimates by DB public pension funds are ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1508

Working Paper
Recent Employment Growth in Cities, Suburbs, and Rural Communities
Foote, Christopher L.; Couillard, Benjamin K. (2019-12-01)
This paper uses a comprehensive source of yearly data to study private-sector labor demand across US counties during the past five decades. Our focus is on how employment levels and earnings relate to population density—that is, how labor markets in rural areas, suburbs, and cities have fared relative to one another. Three broad lessons emerge. First, the longstanding suburbanization of employment and population in cities with very dense urban cores essentially stopped in the first decade of the 21st century. For cities with less dense cores, however, the decentralization of employment ...
Working Papers , Paper 19-20

Discussion Paper
Wage Pressures in the Labor Market: What Do They Say?
Hotchkiss, Julie L. (2021-06-03)
Wage pressures among the newly employed in low-wage service occupations appearto be the result of normal economic forces, likely reflecting demand surges for—and areluctant supply of—workers in occupations particularly hard hit by pandemic-inducedeconomic shutdowns.
Policy Hub , Paper 2021-05

Discussion Paper
Is the Tide Lifting All Boats? A Closer Look at the Earnings Growth Experiences of U.S. Workers
Topa, Giorgio; Karahan, Fatih; Chalom, Rene; Moore, Brendan (2020-03-04)
The growth rate of hourly earnings is a widely used indicator to assess the economic progress of U.S. workers, as well as the health of the labor market. It is also a measure of wage pressures that could potentially spill over into inflationary pressures in a tightening labor market. Hourly earnings growth, on average, has gradually risen over the course of the current expansion, under way since the end of the Great Recession. But how have different groups of workers fared in this regard? Have hourly earnings risen uniformly at all points of the wage distribution, or have some segments of the ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20200304b

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