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Working Paper
Changing Stability in U.S. Employment Relationships: A Tale of Two Tails
Molloy, Raven S.; Smith, Christopher L.; Wozniak, Abigail (2022-01-28)
We examine how the distribution of employment tenure has changed in aggregate and for various demographic groups, drawing links to trends in job stability and satisfaction. The fraction of workers with short tenure (less than a year) has been falling since at least the mid-1990s, consistent with the decline in job changing documented over this period. The decline in short-tenure was widespread across demographic groups, industry, and occupation. It appears to be associated with fewer workers cycling among briefly-held jobs and coincides with an increase in perceived job security among short ...
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers , Paper 056

Working Paper
Household formation over time: evidence from two cohorts of young adults
Cooper, Daniel H.; Luengo-Prado, Maria Jose (2016-11-15)
This paper analyzes household formation in the United States using data from two cohorts of the national Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY)?the 1979 cohort and the 1997 cohort. The analysis focuses on how various demographic and economic factors impact household formation both within cohorts and over time across cohorts. The results show that there are substantial differences over time in the share of young adults living with their parents. Differences in housing costs and business-cycle conditions can explain up to 70 percent of the difference in household-formation rates across cohorts. ...
Working Papers , Paper 16-17

Journal Article
Worker Diversity and Wage Growth Since 1940
Vandenbroucke, Guillaume; Peake, Makenzie (2020)
Since 1940 the average worker has become older, more educated, more likely to be a woman, less likely to be White, and slightly less likely to be single. How has this evolution of the average worker affected wage growth, that is, the wage of the average worker? We conduct two sets of experiments: First, we decompose wage growth between a “growth effect” and a “distribution effect.” The former measures the effect of a change in the wage function, associating wages with worker types; the latter measures the effect of the changing distribution of worker types. Both effects contribute ...
Review , Volume 102 , Issue 1 , Pages 1-18

Working Paper
Population aging, labor demand, and the structure of wages
Patria, Margarita; Papadopoulos, Michael; Triest, Robert K. (2017-05-31)
One consequence of demographic change is substantial shifts in the age distribution of the working-age population. As the baby boom generation ages, the usual historical pattern of a high ratio of younger workers relative to older workers has been replaced by a pattern of roughly equal percentages of workers of different ages. One might expect that the increasing relative supply of older workers would lower the wage premium paid for older, more experienced workers. This paper provides strong empirical support for this hypothesis. Econometric estimates imply that the size of one?s birth cohort ...
Working Papers , Paper 17-1

Report
Demographic origins of the startup deficit
Karahan, Fatih; Sahin, Aysegul; Pugsley, Benjamin (2019-05-01)
We propose a simple explanation for the long-run decline in the U.S. startup rate. It originates from a slowdown in labor supply growth since the late 1970s, largely pre-determined by demographics. This channel can explain roughly 60 percent of the decline and why incumbent firm survival and average growth over the lifecycle have changed little. We show these results in a standard model of firm dynamics and test the mechanism using cross-state variation in labor supply growth. Finally, we show that a longer entry rate series imputed using historical establishment tabulations rises over the ...
Staff Reports , Paper 888

Working Paper
Demographics and Real Interest Rates Across Countries and Over Time
Nechio, Fernanda; Carvalho, Carlos; Mazin, Felipe; Ferrero, Andrea (2023-10-24)
We explore the implications of demographic trends for the evolution of real interest rates across countries and over time. To that end, we develop a tractable three-country general equilibrium model with imperfect capital mobility and country-specific demographic trends. We calibrate the model to study how low-frequency movements in a country's real interest rate depend on its own and other countries' demographic factors, given a certain degree of financial integration. The more financially integrated a country is, the higher the sensitivity of its real interest rate to global developments ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2023-32

Working Paper
Understanding the New Normal : The Role of Demographics
López-Salido, J. David; Johannsen, Benjamin K.; Gagnon, Etienne (2016-09-28)
Since the onset of the Great Recession, the U.S. economy has experienced low real GDP growth and low real interest rates, including for long maturities. We show that these developments were largely predictable by calibrating an overlapping-generation model with a rich demographic structure to observed and projected changes in U.S. population, family composition, life expectancy, and labor market activity. The model accounts for a 1?percentage point decline in both real GDP growth and the equilibrium real interest rate since 1980?essentially all of the permanent declines in those variables ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2016-080

Report
A unified approach to measuring u*
Eusepi, Stefano; Giannoni, Marc; Sahin, Aysegul; Crump, Richard K. (2019-05-01)
This paper bridges the gap between two popular approaches to estimating the natural rate of unemployment, u*. The first approach uses detailed labor market indicators, such as labor market flows, cross-sectional data on unemployment and vacancies, or various measures of demographic changes. The second approach, which employs reduced-form models and DSGE models, relies on aggregate price and wage Phillips curve relationships. We combine the key features of these two approaches to estimate the natural rate of unemployment in the United States using both data on labor market flows and a ...
Staff Reports , Paper 889

Report
Why New England’s Labor Force Participation Has Been Recovering So Slowly since the COVID-19 Pandemic
Burke, Mary A.; Nelson, Nathaniel R. (2025-01-01)
This report investigates a variety of factors that may explain why New England experienced a participation recovery gap from 2019 through 2023 and discusses the resulting policy implications.
New England Public Policy Center Research Report , Paper 25-1

Working Paper
Understanding the Long-Run Decline in Interstate Migration: Online Appendix
Schulhofer-Wohl, Sam; Kaplan, Greg (2015-06-01)
This appendix contains eight sections. Section 1 gives technical details of how we calculate standard errors in the CPS data. Section 2 discusses changes in the ACS procedures before 2005. Section 3 examines demographic and economic patterns in migration over the past two decades, in more detail than in the main paper. Section 4 examines the cross-sectional variance of location-occupation interactions in earnings when we define locations by MSAs instead of states. Section 5 describes alternative methods to estimate the variance of location-occupation interactions in income. Section 6 measures ...
Working Papers , Paper 725

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