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Report
Demography, national savings and international capital flows
Higgins, Matthew (1997-12-01)
This paper addresses the relationship between age distributions, national savings and the current account balance. The results point to substantial demographic effects, with increases in both the youth and old-age dependency ratios associated with lower savings rates. They also point to differential effects on savings and investment, and thus to a role for demography in determining the current account balance. The estimated demographic effect on the current account balance exceeds six percent of GDP over the last three decades for a number of countries and, given expected demographic trends, ...
Staff Reports , Paper 34

How Is the Challenge of Finding Childcare Affecting Labor Force Participation? Perspectives from Employers Across the Seventh District
Longworth, Susan; Walstrum, Thomas; Lavelle, Martin (2024-02)
Through the Chicago Fed Survey of Economic Conditions (CFSEC) and during roundtable discussions with business, nonprofit, and government leaders, the Chicago Fed asked employers from a variety of sectors for their perspectives on how childcare access has affected labor force availability.1 These survey and roundtable findings contribute to the Chicago Fed’s Spotlight on Childcare—an effort to increase our understanding of how the lack of access to childcare impedes labor force participation in the Seventh Federal Reserve District. In this article, we summarize the responses from over 100 ...
Chicago Fed Insights

Working Paper
Work from Home After the COVID-19 Outbreak
Mertens, Karel; Bick, Alexander; Blandin, Adam (2020-07-17)
Based on rich novel survey data, we document that 35.2 percent of the US workforce worked entirely from home in May 2020, up from 8.2 percent in February. Highly educated, high-income and white workers were more likely to shift to working from home and maintain employment following the pandemic. Individuals working from home daily before the pandemic lost employment at similar rates as daily commuters. This suggests that, apart from the potential for home-based work, demand conditions also mattered for job losses. We find that 71.7 percent of workers that could work from home effectively did ...
Working Papers , Paper 2017

Discussion Paper
Do Veterans Face Disparities in the Labor Market—And What Accounts for Them?
Pinkovskiy, Maxim L.; Garcia, Dan; Chakrabarti, Rajashri (2023-05-25)
We continue our series on military service and consider veterans’ earnings and labor market outcomes. We find that veterans earn more than 12 percent less and are 4 percentage points (18 percent) more likely to be out of the labor force than comparable nonveterans. Interestingly, accounting for veterans’ differences from comparable nonveterans in terms of education and disability status largely explains these labor market differences.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20230525b

Discussion Paper
Do Veterans Face Disparities in Higher Education, Health, and Housing?
Pinkovskiy, Maxim L.; Garcia, Dan; Chakrabarti, Rajashri (2023-05-25)
Veterans are an understudied group that forms an important part of the fabric of American society and that constitutes a significant segment of the population. In the first post of this two-part series, we will investigate how the outcomes of veteran men–in educational attainment, health, and housing–differ from those of comparable men who did not serve in the military. Looking only at men, for reasons described below, we find that relative to nonveteran men with a high school degree and a similar distribution of demographic and geographic characteristics, veterans are 7 percentage points ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20230525a

Journal Article
Work, Leisure, and Family: From the Silent Generation to Millennials
Gayle, George-Levi; Odio-Zúñiga, Mariana; Ramakrishnan, Prasanthi (2021-10-18)
This article analyzes the changes in family structure, fertility behavior, and the division of labor within the household from the Silent generation (cohort born in 1940-49) to the Millennial generation (cohort born in 1980-89). Using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, this article documents the main trends and life-cycle profiles for each generation. The main findings are that (i) the wage-age profile has been shifting down over generations, especially for Millennial men; (ii) the returns to a four-year college degree or higher for men have increased for all generations; (iii) ...
Review , Volume 103 , Issue 4 , Pages 385-424

Working Paper
Reversal of Gender Gaps in Child Development: Evidence from Young Children in India
Canon, Maria E.; Lopez Boo, Florencia (2014-04-01)
This paper provides unique evidence of a reversal of gender gaps in cognitive development in early childhood. We find steep caste and gender gradients and few substantive changes once children enter school. The gender gap, however, reverses its sign for the upper caste, with girls performing better than boys at age 5 but thereafter following the general pattern in India of boys performing better.
Working Papers , Paper 2014-11

Discussion Paper
Can China Catch Up with Greece?
Clark, Hunter L.; Higgins, Matthew (2023-10-19)
China’s leader Xi Jinping recently laid out the goal of reaching the per capita income of “a mid-level developed country by 2035.” Is this goal likely to be achieved? Not in our view. Continued rapid growth faces mounting headwinds from population aging and from diminishing returns to China’s investment-centered growth model. Additional impediments to growth appear to be building, including a turn toward increased state management of the economy, the crystallization of legacy credit issues in real estate and other sectors, and limits on access to key foreign technologies. Even ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20231019

Working Paper
Are Central Cities Poor and Non-White?
Schuetz, Jenny; Gonzalez, Arturo; Larrimore, Jeff; Merry, Ellen A.; Robles, Barbara J. (2017-03)
For much of the 20th century, America's central cities were viewed as synonymous with economic and social hardship, often used as proxy for low-income communities of color. Since the 1990s, however, many metropolitan areas have seen a resurgence of interest in central city neighborhoods. Theoretical models of income sorting lead to ambiguous predictions about where households of different income levels will live within metropolitan areas. In this paper, we explore intra-city spatial patterns of income and race for U.S. metropolitan areas, focusing particularly on the locations of low-income ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2017-031

Working Paper
Family Economics Writ Large
Greenwood, Jeremy; Guner, Nezih; Vandenbroucke, Guillaume (2016-11-01)
Powerful currents have reshaped the structure of families over the last century. There has been (i) a dramatic drop in fertility and greater parental investment in children; (ii) a rise in married female labor-force participation; (iii) a significant decline in marriage and a rise in divorce; (iv) a higher degree of positive assortative mating; (v) more children living with a single mother; (vi) shifts in social norms governing premarital sex and married women's roles in the workplace. Macroeconomic models explaining these aggregate trends are surveyed. The relent-less flow of technological ...
Working Papers , Paper 2016-26

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