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Discussion Paper
Understanding the Racial and Income Gap in COVID-19: Public Transportation and Home Crowding
Avtar, Ruchi; Chakrabarti, Rajashri; Pinkovskiy, Maxim L. (2021-01-12)
This is the second post in a series that aims to understand the gap in COVID-19 intensity by race and income. In our first post, we looked at how comorbidities, uninsurance rates, and health resources may help to explain the race and income gap observed in COVID-19 intensity. We found that a quarter of the income gap and more than a third of the racial gap in case rates are explained by health status and system factors. In this post, we look at two factors related to indoor density—namely public transportation use and home crowding. Here, we will aim to understand whether these two factors ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20210112b

Working Paper
Aging and Housing Returns
Amornsiripanitch, Natee; Strahan, Philip E.; Zhang, Song (2025-11-04)
Older home sellers receive lower returns than younger home sellers. Homes sold by older people have fewer major renovations but higher rates of poor upkeep. Older sellers are also more likely to sell off-MLS (“pocket listings”) and to sell to investors, leading to lower prices. These patterns suggest that older sellers may be disproportionately disadvantaged by agents’ incentive to maximize fees through generating high sales volume instead of maximizing sale prices. Age-related cognitive decline makes the elderly more vulnerable. For causal evidence, we show that reforms making private ...
Working Papers , Paper 25-35

Discussion Paper
Understanding the Racial and Income Gap in Covid-19: Health Insurance, Comorbidities, and Medical Facilities
Avtar, Ruchi; Chakrabarti, Rajashri; Pinkovskiy, Maxim L. (2021-01-12)
Our previous work documents that low-income and majority-minority areas were considerably more affected by COVID-19, as captured by markedly higher case and death rates. In a four-part series starting with this post, we seek to understand the reasons behind these income and racial disparities. Do disparities in health status translate into disparities in COVID-19 intensity? Does the health system play a role through health insurance and hospital capacity? Can disparities in COVID-19 intensity be explained by high-density, crowded environments? Does social distancing, pollution, or the age ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20210112a

How Is the Challenge of Finding Childcare Affecting Labor Force Participation? Perspectives from Employers Across the Seventh District
Longworth, Susan; Walstrum, Thomas; Lavelle, Martin (2024-02)
Through the Chicago Fed Survey of Economic Conditions (CFSEC) and during roundtable discussions with business, nonprofit, and government leaders, the Chicago Fed asked employers from a variety of sectors for their perspectives on how childcare access has affected labor force availability.1 These survey and roundtable findings contribute to the Chicago Fed’s Spotlight on Childcare—an effort to increase our understanding of how the lack of access to childcare impedes labor force participation in the Seventh Federal Reserve District. In this article, we summarize the responses from over 100 ...
Chicago Fed Insights

Working Paper
Work from Home Before and After the COVID-19 Outbreak
Bick, Alexander; Blandin, Adam; Mertens, Karel (2021-02-25)
Based on novel survey data, we document the evolution of commuting behavior in the U.S. over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic. Work from home (WFH) increased sharply and persistently after the outbreak, and much more so among some workers than others. Using theory and evidence, we argue that the observed heterogeneity in WFH transitions is consistent with potentially more permanent changes to work arrangements in some occupations, and not just temporary substitution in response to greater health risks. Consistent with increased WFH adoption, many more – especially higher-educated – ...
Working Papers , Paper 2017

Working Paper
Black Mayors and Black Communities
Sylvera, Craig (2025-02-26)
Do Black communities economically benefit from the election of a Black mayor? I find majority-Black ZIP codes experience gains in all areas of economic activity relative to non-Black communities following the first election of a Black mayor. Across industries, the number of establishments in majority-Black ZIP codes increases, including those that rely on foot traffic. Before breakthrough elections, Black residents are less likely than white residents to identify as self-employed across all cities, but this difference is reduced after an election; however, the cities in which the ...
Working Papers , Paper 25-07

Report
Can subjective expectations data be used in choice models? Evidence on cognitive biases
Zafar, Basit (2010-06-01)
A pervasive concern with the use of subjective data in choice models is that the data are biased and endogenous. This paper examines the extent to which cognitive biases plague subjective data, specifically addressing 1) whether cognitive dissonance affects the reporting of beliefs, and 2) whether individuals exert sufficient mental effort when probed about their subjective beliefs. For this purpose, I collect a unique panel data set of Northwestern University undergraduates that contains their subjective expectations about outcomes specific to different majors in their choice set. I do not ...
Staff Reports , Paper 454

Journal Article
Work, Leisure, and Family: From the Silent Generation to Millennials
Gayle, George-Levi; Odio-Zúñiga, Mariana; Ramakrishnan, Prasanthi (2021-10-18)
This article analyzes the changes in family structure, fertility behavior, and the division of labor within the household from the Silent generation (cohort born in 1940-49) to the Millennial generation (cohort born in 1980-89). Using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, this article documents the main trends and life-cycle profiles for each generation. The main findings are that (i) the wage-age profile has been shifting down over generations, especially for Millennial men; (ii) the returns to a four-year college degree or higher for men have increased for all generations; (iii) ...
Review , Volume 103 , Issue 4 , Pages 385-424

Discussion Paper
Can China Catch Up with Greece?
Clark, Hunter L.; Higgins, Matthew (2023-10-19)
China’s leader Xi Jinping recently laid out the goal of reaching the per capita income of “a mid-level developed country by 2035.” Is this goal likely to be achieved? Not in our view. Continued rapid growth faces mounting headwinds from population aging and from diminishing returns to China’s investment-centered growth model. Additional impediments to growth appear to be building, including a turn toward increased state management of the economy, the crystallization of legacy credit issues in real estate and other sectors, and limits on access to key foreign technologies. Even ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20231019

Discussion Paper
Do Veterans Face Disparities in the Labor Market—And What Accounts for Them?
Pinkovskiy, Maxim L.; Garcia, Dan; Chakrabarti, Rajashri (2023-05-25)
We continue our series on military service and consider veterans’ earnings and labor market outcomes. We find that veterans earn more than 12 percent less and are 4 percentage points (18 percent) more likely to be out of the labor force than comparable nonveterans. Interestingly, accounting for veterans’ differences from comparable nonveterans in terms of education and disability status largely explains these labor market differences.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20230525b

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