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Working Paper
Modeling to Inform Economy-Wide Pandemic Policy: Bringing Epidemiologists and Economists Together
Darden, Michael; Dowdy, David; Gardner, Lauren; Hamilton, Barton; Kopecky, Karen A.; Marx, Melissa; Papageorge, Nicholas; Polsky, Daniel; Powers, Kimberly; Stuart, Elizabeth; Zahn, Matthew (2021-11-16)
Facing unprecedented uncertainty and drastic trade-offs between public health and other forms of human well-being, policymakers during the Covid-19 pandemic have sought the guidance of epidemiologists and economists. Unfortunately, while both groups of scientists use many of the same basic mathematical tools, the models they develop to inform policy tend to rely on different sets of assumptions and, thus, often lead to different policy conclusions. This divergence in policy recommendations can lead to uncertainty and confusion, opening the door to disinformation, distrust of institutions, and ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2021-26

Working Paper
The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Demand for Density: Evidence from the U.S. Housing Market
Su, Yichen; Liu, Sitian (2020-08-14)
Cities are shaped by the strength of agglomeration and dispersion forces. We show that the COVID-19 pandemic has re-introduced disease transmission as a dispersion force in modern cities. We use detailed housing data to study the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the location demand for housing. We find that the pandemic has led to a greater decline in the demand for housing in neighborhoods with high population density. We further show that the reduced demand for density is partially driven by the diminished need of living close to jobs that are telework-compatible and the declining value ...
Working Papers , Paper 2024

Working Paper
The Role of Information in Pharmaceutical Advertising: Theory and Evidence
Marquardt, Kelli; Ryan, Conor (2023-10-12)
This paper theoretically and empirically examines the role of information in the practice of pharmaceutical detailing (promotional interactions between drug representatives and physicians). We start with a theoretical framework in which pharmaceutical firms target detailing visits to physicians who potentially learn about drug quality and prescribe it to their patients. We derive several predictions about the role of information in these visits, which we then test empirically using Medicare Part D prescriptions and pharmaceutical detailing visit data. We find there is little empirical ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP 2023-40

Working Paper
Four Stylized Facts about COVID-19
Kopecky, Karen A.; Zha, Tao; Atkeson, Andrew (2020-08-26)
We document four facts about the worldwide COVID-19 pandemic that are relevant for those studying the impact of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on COVID-19 transmission. First, across all countries and U.S. states that we study, the growth rates of daily deaths from COVID-19 fell from a wide range of initially high levels to levels close to zero within 20–30 days after each region experienced 25 cumulative deaths. Second, after this initial period, growth rates of daily deaths have hovered around zero or below everywhere in the world. Third, the cross section standard deviation of ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2020-15

Working Paper
The Mechanics of Individually- and Socially-Optimal Decisions during an Epidemic
Vandenbroucke, Guillaume (2021-09-14)
I present a model where work implies social interactions and the spread of a disease is described by an SIR-type framework. Upon the outbreak of a disease reduced social contacts are decided at the cost of lower consumption. Private individuals do not internalize the effects of their decisions on the evolution of the epidemic while the planner does. Specifically, the planner internalizes that an early reduction in contacts implies fewer infectious in the future and, therefore, a lower risk of infection. This additional (relative to private individuals) benefit of reduced contacts implies that ...
Working Papers , Paper 2020-013

Discussion Paper
Does U.S. Health Inequality Reflect Income Inequality—or Something Else?
Pinkovskiy, Maxim L. (2019-10-15)
Health is an integral part of well-being. The United Nations Human Development Index uses life expectancy (together with GDP per capita and literacy) as one of three key indicators of human welfare across the world. In this post, I discuss the state of life expectancy inequality in the United States and examine some of the underlying factors in its evolution over the past several decades.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20191015

Working Paper
Modeling to Inform Economy-Wide Pandemic Policy: Bringing Epidemiologists and Economists Together
Darden, Michael; Dowdy, David; Gardner, Lauren; Hamilton, Barton; Kopecky, Karen A.; Marx, Melissa; Papageorge, Nicholas; Polsky, Daniel; Powers, Kimberly; Stuart, Elizabeth; Zahn, Matthew; Agarwal, Sumit (2021-11-16)
Facing unprecedented uncertainty and drastic trade-offs between public health and other forms of human well-being, policymakers during the Covid-19 pandemic have sought the guidance of epidemiologists and economists. Unfortunately, while both groups of scientists use many of the same basic mathematical tools, the models they develop to inform policy tend to rely on different sets of assumptions and, thus, often lead to different policy conclusions. This divergence in policy recommendations can lead to uncertainty and confusion, opening the door to disinformation, distrust of institutions, and ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2021-26

Report
The Financial Consequences of Undiagnosed Memory Disorders
Gresenz, Carole Roan; Mitchell, Jean M; Rodriguez, Belicia; Turner, R. Scott; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert (2024-05-01)
We examine the effect of undiagnosed memory disorders on credit outcomes using nationally representative credit reporting data merged with Medicare data. Years prior to eventual diagnosis, average credit scores begin to weaken and payment delinquency begins to increase, overall and for mortgage and credit card accounts specifically. Credit outcomes consistently deteriorate over the quarters leading up to diagnosis. The harmful financial effects of undiagnosed memory disorders exacerbate the already substantial financial pressure households face upon diagnosis of a memory disorder. Our ...
Staff Reports , Paper 1106

Discussion Paper
Who Received PPP Loans by Fintech Lenders?
Godin, Nathan Y.; Battisto, Jessica; Sarkar, Asani; Kramer, Claire (2021-05-27)
Small businesses not only account for 47 percent of U.S employment but also provide a pathway to success for minorities and women. During the coronavirus pandemic, these small businesses—especially those owned by minorities—were hard hit as consumers reduced spending disproportionately on services that require in-person physical interaction, such as hotels and restaurants. In response, the U.S. government launched the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) to provide guaranteed and potentially forgivable small business loans. In this post, we examine financial technology (fintech) lenders ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20210527b

Journal Article
Economic Activity during the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Model with “Acquired Immunity”
Carranza, Juan Esteban; Riascos, Álvaro José; Martin, Juan David (2022)
We calibrate a macroeconomic model with epidemiological restrictions using Colombian data. The key feature of our model is that a portion of the population is immune and cannot transmit the virus, which improves substantially the fit of the model to the observed contagion and economic activity data. The model implies that during 2020, government restrictions and the endogenous changes in individual behavior saved around 15,000 lives and decreased consumption by about 4.7 percent. The results suggest that most of this effect was the result of government policies.
Review , Volume 104 , Issue 1 , Pages 1-16

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