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Journal Article
COVID-19: Fiscal Implications and Financial Stability in Developing Countries
Grittayaphong, Praew; Restrepo-Echavarria, Paulina (2023-07-14)
The COVID-19 pandemic has been unlike any other crisis that we have experienced in that it hit all economies in the world at the same time, compromising the risk-sharing ability of nations. At the onset of the pandemic, the World Bank (WB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) jointly pledged 1.16 trillion U.S. dollars to help emerging economies deal with COVID-19. Would this amount have been enough to preserve financial stability in a worst case scenario, and what were the fiscal implications of the pandemic? In this article we aim to answer these questions by documenting the size of the ...
Review , Volume 105 , Issue 3 , Pages 137-149

Journal Article
Introduction to Special Issue: The Appropriate Role of Government in U.S. Mortgage Markets
Tracy, Joseph; Frame, W. Scott (2018-24-03)
The U.S. mortgage finance system was one of the focal points of the 2007-08 financial crisis, yet legislative decisions about the appropriate role of the federal government in the system remain unsettled. Policy deliberations have focused on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac?the two enormous government-sponsored enterprises that were placed into federal conservatorship in September 2008. The two GSEs have long been the centerpieces of a mortgage finance system that relies on capital market financing of U.S. residential mortgages. This volume contains eight articles that touch on several key ...
Economic Policy Review , Issue 24-3 , Pages 1-10

Working Paper
Rushing to Judgment and the Banking Crisis of 2023
Rose, Jonathan D.; Kelly, Steven (2025-03)
This article critically reviews the 2023 banking crisis with the benefit of two years of hindsight. We highlight seven facts that depart from the standard account of the crisis that has developed. We describe the crisis as a reaction to bank business models that focused on providing banking services to certain economic sectors, crypto-asset firms and venture capital, that had come under economic pressure during the preceding year. We argue this view of the crisis provides a more precise explanation of which banks were affected compared to an explanation focused solely on banks’ balance ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP 2025-04

Working Paper
Using the Eye of the Storm to Predict the Wave of Covid-19 UI Claims
Seo, Boyoung; Butters, R. Andrew; Aaronson, Daniel; Sacks, Daniel W.; Brave, Scott A. (2020-04-07)
We leverage an event-study research design focused on the seven costliest hurricanes to hit the US mainland since 2004 to identify the elasticity of unemployment insurance filings with respect to search intensity. Applying our elasticity estimate to the state-level Google Trends indexes for the topic “unemployment,” we show that out-of-sample forecasts made ahead of the official data releases for March 21 and 28 predicted to a large degree the extent of the Covid-19 related surge in the demand for unemployment insurance. In addition, we provide a robust assessment of the uncertainty ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP 2020-10

Working Paper
Using the Eye of the Storm to Predict the Wave of Covid-19 UI Claims
Seo, Boyoung; Butters, R. Andrew; Aaronson, Daniel; Brave, Scott A.; Sacks, Daniel (2020-04-16)
We leverage an event-study research design focused on the seven costliest hurricanes to hit the US mainland since 2004 to identify the elasticity of unemployment insurance filings with respect to search intensity. Applying our elasticity estimate to the state-level Google Trends indexes for the topic “unemployment,” we show that out-of-sample forecasts made ahead of the official data releases for March 21 and 28 predicted to a large degree the extent of the Covid-19 related surge in the demand for unemployment insurance. In addition, we provide a robust assessment of the uncertainty ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2020-10

Report
Pandemic Lockdown: The Role of Government Commitment
Moser, Christian; Yared, Pierre (2021-08-03)
This paper studies lockdown policy in a dynamic economy without government commitment. Lockdown imposes a cap on labor supply, which improves health prospects at the cost of economic output and consumption. A government would like to commit to the extent of future lockdowns in order to guarantee an economic outlook that supports efficient levels of investment into intermediate inputs. However, such a commitment is not credible, since investments are sunk at the time when the government chooses a lockdown. As a result, lockdown under lack of commitment deviates from the optimal policy. Rules ...
Staff Report , Paper 627

Report
Government Guarantees and the Valuation of American Banks
Weill, Pierre-Olivier; D'Avernas, Adrien; Eisfeldt, Andrea L.; Atkeson, Andrew (2018-06-19)
Banks' ratio of the market value to book value of their equity was close to 1 until the 1990s, then more than doubled during the 1996-2007 period, and fell again to values close to 1 after the 2008 financial crisis. Sarin and Summers (2016) and Chousakos and Gorton (2017) argue that the drop in banks' market-to-book ratio since the crisis is due to a loss in bank franchise value or profitability. In this paper we argue that banks' market-to-book ratio is the sum of two components: franchise value and the value of government guarantees. We empirically decompose the ratio between these two ...
Staff Report , Paper 567

Report
Does going easy on distressed banks help the macroeconomy?
Hundtofte , Sean (2017-10-01)
During banking crises, regulators often relax their requirements and refrain from closing troubled banks. I estimate the real effects of such regulatory forbearance during the U.S. savings and loan crisis by comparing states' economic outcomes by the amount of forbearance they receive. As instruments, I use historical variation in deposit insurance of similar financial intermediaries (thrifts) and exploit geographic variation in principal supervisory agent (PSA). The evidence suggests a policy-induced real estate boom during forbearance (1982-89), followed by a bigger bust in real estate and ...
Staff Reports , Paper 823

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