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Working Paper
Innovation Booms, Easy Financing, and Human Capital Accumulation
Hombert, Johan; Matray, Adrien (2026-07-06)
Innovation booms are often fueled by easy financing, allowing new technology firms to pay high wages that attract skilled labor. Studying the information and communication technology (ICT) boom in the late 1990s, we show that high-skill workers who joined the ICT sector during the boom experienced sizeable long-term earnings losses. These earnings patterns stem from accelerated skill obsolescence rather than worker selection or the subsequent bust in the ICT sector. Moreover, during the boom, financing disproportionately flowed to firms whose workers would later experience the largest ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2026-8

Working Paper
Intermediation in Markets for Goods and Markets for Assets
Wong, Yuet-Yee; Wright, Randall; Nosal, Ed (2019-03-01)
We analyze agents' decisions to act as producers or intermediaries using equilibrium search theory. Extending previous analyses in various ways, we ask when intermediation emerges and study its efficiency. In one version of the framework, meant to resemble retail, middlemen hold goods, which entails (storage) costs; that model always displays uniqueness and simple transition dynamics. In another version, middlemen hold assets, which entails negative costs, that is, positive returns; that model can have multiple equilibria and complicated belief-based dynamics. These results are consistent ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2019-5

Working Paper
Synergizing Ventures
Greenwood, Jeremy; Dinlersoz, Emin M.; Akcigit, Ufuk; Penciakova, Veronika (2019-09-01)
Venture capital (VC) and growth are examined both empirically and theoretically. Empirically, VC-backed startups have higher early growth rates and initial patent quality than non-VC-backed ones. VC backing increases a startup's likelihood of reaching the right tails of the firm size and innovation distributions. Furthermore, outcomes are better for startups matched with more experienced venture capitalists. An endogenous growth model, where venture capitalists provide both expertise and financing for business startups, is constructed to match these facts. The presence of venture capital, the ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2019-17

Report
Early Warning Signals in Private Credit? What BDC Portfolios Reveal about Emerging Risks
Shen, Leslie Sheng; Wang, J. Christina; Fillat, José (2026-08-05)
Private credit—lending by nonbank financial institutions—has grown to over $1 trillion in the United States, yet most of it remains opaque to investors and policymakers because private credit funds are not required to publish their holdings. Business development companies (BDCs) are an exception and provide a window into this segment of the credit markets. All BDCs are publicly registered investment vehicles that must file periodic reports with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including quarterly and annual filings. We analyze these disclosures to detect trends in the pricing of ...
Current Policy Perspectives , Paper 26-6

Working Paper
Dotcom Price Spiral
Sampaio, Joelson Oliveira; de Carvalho, Antonio Gledson; Pinheiro, Roberto (2017-07-25)
We show that during the bubble implied growth rates coming from the underpricing of IPO market explains short term returns on the NASDAQ index. This result remains even if we replace actual underprice for others different instruments for underpricing that are based on predetermined variables and not correlated to market returns. We also do placebo tests to assess the relation between underpricing and NASDAQ returns over other periods. We show that growth proxies that are not contaminated by the booms and busts of the stock market are uncorrelated with the returns on the NASDAQ index in ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1713

Working Paper
Dotcom Extreme Underpricing
Sampaio, Joelson Oliveira; de Carvalho, Antonio Gledson; Pinheiro, Roberto (2017-07-25)
We conjecture that the Dotcom abnormal underpricing resulted from the emergence a large cohort of firms racing for market leadership/survivorship. Fundamentals pricing at the IPO was part of their strategy. Consistent with our conjecture, firms? strategic goals and characteristics fully explain the abnormal underpricing. Contrary to alternatives explanations, underpricing was not associated with top underwriting; there was no deterioration of issuers? quality; and top underwriters and analysts became more selective.
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1714

Working Paper
The Dotcom Bubble and Underpricing: Conjectures and Evidence
Sampaio, Joelson Oliveira; de Carvalho, Antonio Gledson; Pinheiro, Roberto (2016-12-21)
We provide conjectures for what caused the price spiral and the high underpricing of the dotcom bubble of 1999?2000. We raise two conjectures for the price spiral. First, given the uncertainty about the growth opportunities generated by the new technologies and their spillover effects across technology industries, investors saw the inflow of a large number of high-growth firms as a sign of high growth rates for the market as a whole. Second, investors interpreted the wave of highly underpriced IPOs as an opportunity to obtain gains by investing in newly public companies. The underpricing ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1633

Working Paper
Venture Capital and Underpricing: Capacity Constraints and Early Sales
Pinheiro, Roberto (2016-11-14)
I present a model of the venture capital (VC) and public markets in which VCs suffer from capacity constraints, due to the shortage of skilled VC managers. Consequently, VC firms can only handle a limited number of new projects at once, having to take ongoing projects public in order to take advantage of new opportunities. This framework is able to match key features presented by the VC and initial public offer (IPO) empirical literatures: (1) VC-backed firms are younger, smaller, and less profitable at the IPO than their non-VC backed counterparts; (2) VC-backed IPOs are more underpriced ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1624

Journal Article
The so-called Texas ratio
Siems, Thomas F. (2012)
Financial Insights , Volume 1 , Issue 3 , Pages 1-3

Working Paper
Equity Regulation and U.S. Venture Capital Investment
Atkinson, Tyler; Duca, John V. (2017-08-23)
There is a growing consensus that the long-run per capita growth rate of the U.S. economy has drifted lower since the early 2000s, consistent with a perceived slowdown in business dynamism. One factor that may have contributed to this is a downshift in venture capital investment and its failure to recover in line with stock prices, as pre-2003 patterns would suggest. Critics have argued that this is associated with the increased regulatory burden for publically traded firms to comply with the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 (SOX). There is inconclusive evidence of SOX deterring firms from becoming ...
Working Papers , Paper 1707

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