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Equity Volatility Term Premia
Van Tassel, Peter (2018-09-01)
This paper estimates the term-structure of volatility risk premia for the stock market. Realized variance term premia are increasing in systematic risk and predict variance swap returns. Implied volatility term premia are decreasing in risk initially, but then increase at a lag, predicting VIX futures returns. By modeling the logarithm of realized variance, the paper derives a closed-form relationship between the prices of variance swaps and VIX futures. The model provides accurate pricing and highlights periods of dislocation between the index options and VIX futures markets. Term premia ...
Staff Reports , Paper 867

Working Paper
The Financial Stability Implications of Digital Assets
Scotti, Chiara; Carapella, Francesca; Rappoport, David E.; Baughman, Garth; Swem, Nathan; Vardoulakis, Alexandros (2022-08)
The value of assets in the digital ecosystem has grown rapidly, amid periods of high volatility. Does the digital financial system create new potential challenges to financial stability? This paper explores this question using the Federal Reserve’s framework for analyzing vulnerabilities in the traditional financial system. The digital asset ecosystem has recently proven itself highly fragile. However adverse digital asset markets shocks have had limited spillovers to the traditional financial system. Currently, the digital asset ecosystem does not provide significant financial services ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2022-058

Working Paper
International Evidence on Extending Sovereign Debt Maturities
Christensen, Jens H. E.; Lopez, Jose A.; Mussche, Paul (2021-07-22)
Portfolio diversification is as important to debt management as it is to asset management. In this paper, we focus on diversification of sovereign debt issuance by examining the extension of the maximum maturity of issued debt. In particular, we examine the potential costs to the U.S. Treasury of introducing 50-year bonds as a financing option. Based on evidence from foreign government bond markets with such long-term debt, our results suggest that a 50-year Treasury bond would likely trade at an average yield that is at most 20 basis points above that of a 30-year bond. Our results based on ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2021-19

Working Paper
QE Auctions of Treasury Bonds
Song, Zhaogang; Zhu, Haoxiang (2014-06-16)
The Federal Reserve (Fed) uses a unique auction mechanism to purchase U.S. Treasury securities in implementing its quantitative easing (QE) policy. In this paper, we study the outcomes of QE auctions and participating dealers' bidding behaviors from November 2010 to September 2011, during which the Fed purchased $780 billion Treasury securities. Our data include the transaction prices and quantities of each traded bond in each auction, as well as dealers' identities. We find that: (1) In QE auctions the Fed tends to exclude bonds that are liquid and on special, but among included bonds, ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2014-48

Report
Broker-dealer risk appetite and commodity returns
Etula, Erkko (2009-11-01)
This paper shows that the risk-bearing capacity of U.S. securities brokers and dealers is a strong determinant of risk premia in commodity derivatives markets. Commodity derivatives are the principal instrument used by producers and purchasers of commodities to hedge against commodity price risk. Broker-dealers play an important role in this hedging process because commodity derivatives are traded primarily over the counter. I capture the limits of arbitrage in this market in a simple asset pricing model where producers and purchasers of commodities share risk with broker-dealers who are ...
Staff Reports , Paper 406

Journal Article
Derivatives disclosures by major U.S. banks, 1995
Eller, Gregory E.; Edwards, Gerald A. (1996-09)
This review of the 1995 annual reports of ten major U.S. commercial banks shows that public disclosure about derivatives activities continues to improve. Compared with reports for earlier years, banks are providing more types of information in greater depth and in ways that make the information more easily understood by readers of public financial statements. These large banks, in response to standards and recommendations promulgated by various groups as well as by shareholder concerns, have made significant strides in increasing the transparency of their derivatives activities.
Federal Reserve Bulletin , Volume 82 , Issue Sep , Pages 791-801

Working Paper
Market Liquidity in Treasury Futures Market During March 2020
Gousgounis, Eleni; Mixon, Scott; Tuzun, Tugkan; Vega, Clara (2025-05-30)
We study the behavior of liquidity providers and liquidity consumers in the 10-year U.S. Treasury futures market during the height of the COVID-19 shock in March 2020, a period of market turmoil when demand for liquidity was high. In March 2020, PTFs reduced their volume of liquidity providing trades as a share of total trading volume. However, they still accounted for the lion share of total liquidity provision and their liquidity provision improved market liquidity. In contrast, dealers (banks and non-banks) increased their volume of liquidity providing trades as a share of total trading ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2025-038

Working Paper
Do Minimum Wage Increases Benefit Intended Households? Evidence from the Performance of Residential Leases
Ambrose, Brent W.; Diop, Moussa; Agarwal, Sumit (2019-07-10)
Prior studies debating the e?ects of changes to the minimum wage concentrate on impacts on household income and spending or employment. We extend this debate by examining the impact of changes to the minimum wage on expenses associated with shelter, a previously unexplored area. Increases in state minimum wages signi?cantly reduce the incidence of renters defaulting on their lease contracts by 1.29 percentage points over three months, relative to similar renters who did not experience an increase in the minimum wage. This represents 25.7% fewer defaults post treatment in treated states. To ...
Working Papers , Paper 19-28

Working Paper
Is Implied Correlation Worth Calculating? Evidence from Foreign Exchange Options and Historical Data
Lopez, Jose A.; Walter, Christian (2000-02-01)
Implied volatilities, as derived from option prices, have been shown to be useful in forecasting the subsequently observed volatility of the underlying financial variables. In this paper, we address the question of whether implied correlations, derived from options on the exchange rates in a currency trio, are useful in forecasting the observed correlations. We compare the forecast performance of the implied correlations from two currency trios with markedly different characteristics against correlation forecasts based on historical, time-series data. For the correlations in the USD/DEM/JPY ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2000-02

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