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Identifying term interbank loans from Fedwire payments data
Kuo, Dennis; Skeie, David R.; Vickery, James; Youle, Thomas (2013)
Interbank markets for term maturities experienced great stress during the 2007-09 financial crisis, as illustrated by the behavior of the one- and three-month Libor. Despite widespread interest in these markets, little data is available on dollar interbank lending for maturities beyond overnight. We develop a methodology to infer information about individual term dollar interbank loans settled through the Fedwire Funds Service, the large-value bank payment system operated by the Federal Reserve Banks. We find a sharp increase in the dispersion of inferred term interbank interest rates, a ...
Staff Reports , Paper 603

Working Paper
Transparency and Collateral : Central versus Bilateral Clearing
Carli, Francesco; Carapella, Francesca; Antinolfi, Gaetano (2018-03-08)
Bilateral financial contracts typically require an assessment of counterparty risk. Central clearing of these financial contracts allows market participants to mutualize their counterparty risk, but this insurance may weaken incentives to acquire and to reveal information about such risk. When considering this trade-off, participants would choose central clearing if information acquisition is incentive compatible. If it is not, they may prefer bilateral clearing, when this choice prevents strategic default while economizing on costly collateral. In either case, participants independently ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2018-017

Working Paper
Only Winners in Tough Times Repeat: Hedge Fund Performance Persistence over Different Market Conditions
Wang, Ashley W.; Sun, Zheng; Zheng, Lu (2016-03)
We provide novel evidence that hedge fund performance is persistent following weak hedge fund markets, but is not persistent following strong markets. Specifically, we construct two performance measures, DownsideReturns and UpsideReturns, conditioned on the level of overall hedge fund sector returns. After adjusting for risks, funds in the highest DownsideReturns quintile outperform funds in the lowest quintile by about 7% in the subsequent year, whereas funds with better UpsideReturns do not outperform subsequently. The DownsideReturns can predict future fund performance over a horizon as ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2016-030

Working Paper
Transparency and Collateral: The Design of CCPs' Loss Allocation Rules
Carli, Francesco; Carapella, Francesca; Antinolfi, Gaetano (2019-08)
This paper adopts a mechanism design approach to study optimal clearing arrangements for bilateral financial contracts in which an assessment of counterparty risk is crucial for efficiency. The economy is populated by two types of agents: a borrower and lender. The borrower is subject to limited commitment and holds private information about the severity of such lack of commitment. The lender can acquire information at a cost about the commitment of the borrower, which affects the assessment of counterparty risk. When truthful revelation by the borrower is not incentive compatible, the ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2019-058

Report
Understanding mortgage spreads
Boyarchenko, Nina; Lucca, David O.; Fuster, Andreas (2014-05-01)
Most mortgages in the U.S. are securitized in agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS). Yield spreads on these securities are thus a key determinant of homeowners? funding costs. We study variation in MBS spreads over time and across securities, and document a cross-sectional smile pattern in MBS spreads with respect to the securities? coupon rates. We propose non-interest-rate prepayment risk as a candidate driver of MBS spread variation and present a new pricing model that uses ?stripped? MBS prices to identify the contribution of this prepayment risk to the spread. The pricing model finds ...
Staff Reports , Paper 674

Report
Arbitrage-free affine models of the forward price of foreign currency
Durham, J. Benson (2014-02-01)
Forward foreign exchange contracts embed not only expected depreciation but also a sizable premium, which complicates inferences about anticipated returns. This study derives arbitrage-free affine forward currency models (AFCMs) with closed-form expressions for both unobservable variables. Model calibration to forward term structures of eleven U.S.-dollar currency pairs from the mid-to-late 1990s through early 2014 fits the data closely and suggests that the premium is indeed nonzero and variable, but not to the degree implied by previous econometric studies.
Staff Reports , Paper 665

Journal Article
An Introduction to Web3 with Implications for Financial Services
Parlour, Christine (2023-05-15)
Web3 is used to describe the next iteration of the internet in which decentralized services are automated on blockchains. This paper describes the elements of Web3 including blockchains and tokens. It describes the largest decentralized finance protocols and some specific services where blockchain and tokens can be used. The paper concludes with a brief discussion of some regulatory challenges.
Policy Hub , Volume 2023 , Issue 3

Working Paper
Bubbling Up? What Consumer Expectations Reveal About U.S. Housing Market Exuberance
Martínez García, Enrique; Pavlidis, Efthymios (2025-05-21)
We investigate the presence of speculative bubbles in the U.S. housing market after the global financial crisis. Unlike standard approaches that rely on observed economic fundamentals, our method leverages subjective price expectations from the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers to test for exuberance without imposing a specific model of intrinsic housing values. By applying recursive least-squares and quantile-based unit root tests to cumulative expectational errors, we uncover novel evidence of speculative dynamics at the aggregate level and across broad demographic and ...
Working Papers , Paper 2521

Working Paper
Macro Aspects of Housing
Ng, Joe Cho Yiu; Leung, Charles Ka Yui (2018-05-01)
This paper aims to achieve two objectives. First, we demonstrate that with respect to business cycle frequency (Burns and Mitchell, 1946), there was a general decrease in the association between macroeconomic variables (MV) and housing market variables (HMV) following the global financial crisis (GFC). However, there are macro-finance variables that exhibited a strong association with the HMV following the GFC. For the medium-term business cycle frequency (Comin and Gertler, 2006), we find that while some correlations exhibit the same change as the business cycle counterparts, others do not. ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 340

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