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Global Supply Chain Pressures, International Trade, and Inflation
di Giovanni, Julian; Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem; Silva, Alvaro; Yildirim, Muhammed A. (2022-07-01)
We study the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on euro area inflation and how it compares to the experiences of other countries, such as the United States, over the two-year period 2020-21. Our model-based calibration exercises deliver four key results: (1) compositional effects, or the switch from services to goods consumption, are amplified through global input-output linkages, affecting both trade and inflation; (2) inflation can be higher under sector-specific labor shortages relative to a scenario with no such supply shocks; (3) foreign shocks and global supply chain bottlenecks played an ...
Staff Reports , Paper 1024

Working Paper
Global Inflation, Regional Factors
Sheremirov, Viacheslav; Stein, Hillary (2025-08-01)
This paper shows that global inflation dynamics have a sizable regional component. Using a balanced panel of 61 countries that starts in 1970, we document that while the global factor, defined as the dominant principal component, explains a large portion of inflation variation in advanced economies, a model with only one principal component is less successful for developing countries. By contrast, a hierarchical dynamic factor model, which includes a global (unconstrained) factor and regional (restricted) factors, performs substantially better for emerging market and developing economies. The ...
Working Papers , Paper 25-6

Report
Gender differences in the labor market effects of the dollar
Goldberg, Linda S.; Tracy, Joseph (2001-04-01)
Although the dollar has been shown to influence the expected wages of workers, the analysis to date has focused on the male workforce. We show that exchange rate fluctuations also have important implications for women's wages. The dominant wage effects for women?like those for men?arise at times of job transition. Changes in the value of the dollar can cause the wage gap between women who change jobs and women who stay on in their jobs to expand or contract sharply, with the most pronounced effects occurring among the least educated women and women in highly competitive manufacturing ...
Staff Reports , Paper 121

Working Paper
Financial Institutions’ Business Models and the Global Transmission of Monetary Policy
Bonner, Clemens; Haan, Leo de; Stebunovs, Viktors; Frost, Jon; Correa, Ricardo; Argimon, Isabel; Duijm, Patty; Haan, Jakob de (2018-05-29)
Global financial institutions play an important role in channeling funds across countries and, therefore, transmitting monetary policy from one country to another. In this paper, we study whether such international transmission depends on financial institutions' business models. In particular, we use Dutch, Spanish, and U.S. confidential supervisory data to test whether the transmission operates differently through banks, insurance companies, and pension funds. We find marked heterogeneity in the transmission of monetary policy across the three types of institutions, across the three banking ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1228

Working Paper
Globalization and the Increasing Correlation between Capital Inflows and Outflows
Davis, J. Scott; Van Wincoop, Eric (2017-08-01)
The correlation between capital inflows and outflows has increased substantially over time in a sample of 128 advanced and developing countries. We provide evidence that this is a result of an increase in financial globalization (stock of external assets and liabilities). This dominates the effect of an increase in trade globalization (exports plus imports), which reduces the correlation between capital inflows and outflows. In the context of a two-country model with 14 shocks we show that the theoretical impact of financial and trade globalization on the correlation between capital inflows ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 323

Working Paper
Demand-Supply imbalance during the COVID-19 pandemic: The role of fiscal policy
de Soyres, Francois; Young, Henry L.; Santacreu, Ana Maria (2022-09-02)
To mitigate the health and economic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic, governments worldwide engaged in massive fiscal support programs. We show that generous fiscal support is associated with an increase in the demand for consumption goods during the pandemic, but industrial production did not adjust quickly enough to meet the sharp increase in demand. This imbalance between supply and demand across countries contributed to high inflation. Our findings suggest a sizable role for fiscal policy in affecting price stability, above and beyond what a monetary authority can do.
Working Papers , Paper 2022-019

Working Paper
Global Macro-Financial Cycles and Spillovers
Ha, Jongrim; Kose, M. Ayhan; Otrok, Christopher; Prasad, Eswar S. (2025-04-22)
We develop a new dynamic factor model to jointly characterize global macroeconomic and financial cycles and the spillovers between them. The model decomposes macroeconomic cycles into the part driven by global and country-specific macro factors and the part driven by spillovers from financial variables. We consider cycles in macroeconomic aggregates (output, consumption and investment) and financial variables (equity and house prices and interest rates). The global macro factor plays a major role in explaining G-7 business cycles, but there are also sizeable spillovers from equity and house ...
Working Papers , Paper 2512

Working Paper
Redistributive Fiscal Policies and Business Cycles in Emerging Economies
Rothert, Jacek; Michaud, Amanda M. (2017-05-24)
Government expenditures are pro-cyclical in emerging markets and counter-cyclical in developed economies. We show this pattern is driven by differences in social transfers. Transfers are more counter-cyclical and comprise a larger portion of spending in developed economies compared to emerging. In contrast, government expenditures on goods and services are quite similar across the two. In a small open economy model, we find disparate social transfer policies can account for more than a half of the excess volatility of consumption relative to output in emerging economies. We analyze how ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1709

Report
Distribution margins, imported inputs, and the sensitivity of the CPI to exchange rates
Campa, Jose Manuel; Goldberg, Linda S. (2006-04-01)
Border prices of traded goods are highly sensitive to exchange rates; however, the consumer price index (CPI) and the retail prices of goods that make up the CPI are more stable. This paper decomposes the sources of this price stability for twenty-one OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) countries, focusing on the important role of distribution margins and imported inputs in transmitting exchange rate fluctuations into consumption prices. We provide rich cross-country and cross-industry details on distribution margins and their sensitivity to exchange rates, imported ...
Staff Reports , Paper 247

Working Paper
Borders and Big Macs
Landry, Anthony (2011)
I measure the extent of international market segmentation using local, national, and international Big Mac prices. I show that the bulk of time-series price volatility observed across the United States arises between neighboring locations. Using these data, I provide new estimates of border frictions for 14 countries. I find that borders generally introduce only small price wedges, far smaller than those observed across neighboring locations. When expressing these wedges in terms of distance equivalents, I find that border widths are small in relation to price variations observed across the ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 95

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