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Working Paper
Catalytic IMF? a gross flows approach
Erce, Aitor; Riera-Crichton, Daniel (2015-11-01)
The financial assistance the International Monetary Fund (IMF) provides is assumed to catalyze fresh investment. Such a catalytic effect has, however, proven empirically elusive. This paper deviates from the standard approach based on the net capital inflow to study instead the IMF?s catalytic role in the context of gross capital flows. Using fixed-effects regressions, instrumental variables and local projection methods, we find significant differences in how resident and foreign investors react to IMF programs as well as in inward and outward flows. While IMF lending does not catalyze ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 254

Report
A Neoclassical Model of the World Financial Cycle
Bai, Yan; Kehoe, Patrick J.; Lopez, Pierlauro; Perri, Fabrizio (2025-03-21)
Emerging markets face large and persistent fluctuations in sovereign spreads. To what extent are these fluctuations driven by local shocks versus financial conditions in advanced economies? To answer this question, we develop a neoclassical business cycle model of a world economy with an advanced country, the North, and many emerging market economies, the South. Northern households invest in domestic stocks, domestic defaultable bonds, and international sovereign debt. Over the 2008-2016 period, the global cycle phase, the North accounts for 68% of Southern spreads’ fluctuations. Over the ...
Staff Report , Paper 666

Working Paper
Bond Flows and Liquidity: Do Foreigners Matter?
Christensen, Jens H. E.; Fischer, Eric; Shultz, Patrick (2019-12-05)
In their search for yield in the current low interest rate environment, many investors have turned to sovereign debt in emerging economies, which has raised concerns about risks to financial stability from these capital flows. To assess this risk, we study the effects of changes in the foreign-held share of Mexican sovereign bonds on their liquidity premiums. We find that recent increases in foreign holdings of these securities have played a significant role in driving up their liquidity premiums. Provided the higher compensation for bearing liquidity risk is commensurate with the chance of a ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2019-08

Working Paper
The Dollar and Emerging Market Economies: Financial Vulnerabilities Meet the International Trade System
Shousha, Samer (2019-10-04)
This paper shows that dollar appreciations lead to declines in GDP, investment, and credit to the private sector in emerging market economies (EMEs). These results imply that the transmission of dollar movements to EMEs occurs mainly through financial conditions rather than net exports, contrary to what would be expected from the conventional Mundell-Fleming model. Moreover, the central role of the U.S. dollar in global trade invoicing and financing - the dominant currency paradigm - and the increased integration of EMEs into international supply chains weaken the traditional trade channel. ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1258

Working Paper
Limited asset market participation and the consumption-real exchange rate anomaly
Kollmann, Robert (2010)
Under efficient consumption risk sharing, as assumed in standard international business cycle models, a country's aggregate consumption rises relative to foreign consumption, when the country's real exchange rate depreciates. Yet, empirically, relative consumption and the real exchange rate are essentially uncorrelated. I show that this "consumption-real exchange rate anomaly" can be explained by a simple model in which a subset of households trade in complete financial markets, while the remaining households lead hand-to-mouth (HTM) lives. HTM behavior also generates greater volatility of ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 41

Working Paper
What are the consequences of global banking for the international transmission of shocks?: a quantitative analysis
Fillat, José; Garetto, Stefania; Smith, Arthur V. (2018-10-01)
The global financial crisis of 2008 was followed by a wave of regulatory reforms that affected large banks, especially those with a global presence. These reforms were reactive to the crisis. In this paper we propose a structural model of global banking that can be used proactively to perform counterfactual analysis on the effects of alternative regulatory policies. The structure of the model mimics the US regulatory framework and highlights the organizational choices that banks face when entering a foreign market: branching versus subsidiarization. When calibrated to match moments from a ...
Working Papers , Paper 18-11

Working Paper
Uninsurable Income Risk and the Welfare Effects of Reducing Global Imbalances
Glover, Andrew; Dur, Ayse; Rothert, Jacek (2024-02-14)
We highlight the welfare effect of policies that balance global current accounts when households face uninsurable income risk and borrowing constraints. Subsidizing savings in debtor economies reduces current account imbalances and raises the welfare of almost all citizens by increasing world capital, raising wages, and improving insurance for low-wealth households. The same balancing of current accounts is achieved by taxing savings in lender economies; however, this policy hurts most households by reducing global capital. These results suggest that balancing global imbalances may be a ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 24-02

Working Paper
Shock Transmission through Cross-Border Bank Lending: Credit and Real Effects
Hale, Galina; Kapan, Tumer; Minoiu, Camelia (2019-07-17)
We study the transmission of financial shocks across borders through international bank connections. Using data on cross-border interbank loans among 6,000 banks during 1997-2012, we estimate the effect of asset-side exposures to banks in countries experiencing systemic banking crises on profitability, credit, and the performance of borrower firms. Crisis exposures reduce bank returns and tighten credit conditions for borrowers, constraining investment and growth. The effects are larger for foreign borrowers, including in countries not experiencing banking crises. Our results document the ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2019-052

Working Paper
On the Origins of the Multinational Premium
Fillat, José; Garetto, Stefania (2021-10-01)
How do foreign direct investment (FDI) dynamics relate to the risk premium of a firm? To answer this question, we compare the stock returns of US firms with different FDI and mergers and acquisitions (M&A) exposure to study the evolution of stock returns as firms expand into foreign markets. We document three empirical regularities. First, there are cross-sectional risk premia associated with both multinational activity and mergers and acquisitions. Second, firm-level stock returns decline when a firm undertakes M&A activity and with merger deepening. Third, future multinational acquirers ...
Working Papers , Paper 21-20

Working Paper
Explaining International Business Cycle Synchronization: Recursive Preferences and the Terms of Trade Channel
Kollmann, Robert (2017-03-01)
The business cycles of advanced economies are synchronized. Standard macro models fail to explain that fact. This paper presents a simple model of a two-country, two-traded good, complete-financial-markets world in which country-specific productivity shocks generate business cycles that are highly correlated internationally. The model assumes recursive intertemporal preferences (Epstein-Zin-Weil), and a muted response of labor hours to household wealth changes (due to Greenwood-Hercowitz-Huffman period utility and demand-determined employment under rigid wages). Recursive intertemporal ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 307

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