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Journal Article
U.S. international transactions in 2000
Gagnon, Joseph E. (2001-05)
The U.S. current account deficit widened to $435 billion in 2000, a record 4.4 percent of gross domestic product, as the lagged effect of strong growth in the U.S. economy in late 1999 and early 2000 continued to drive up imports of goods and services faster than exports increased. To a lesser extent, a decline in U.S. price competitiveness also contributed to the expansion in the deficit. The $104 billion increase in the current account deficit was entirely accounted for by an equal-sized increase in the goods and services deficit. Other components of the current account moved in small and ...
Federal Reserve Bulletin , Volume 87 , Issue May

Report
Liquidity traps, capital flows
Acharya, Sushant; Bengui, Julien (2016-01-01)
Motivated by debates surrounding international capital flows during the Great Recession, we conduct a positive and normative analysis of capital flows when a region of the global economy experiences a liquidity trap. Capital flows reduce inefficient output fluctuations in this region by inducing exchange rate movements that reallocate expenditure toward the goods it produces. Restricting capital mobility hampers such an adjustment. From a global perspective, constrained efficiency entails subsidizing capital flows to address an aggregate demand externality associated with exchange rate ...
Staff Reports , Paper 765

Working Paper
Risk sharing in a world economy with uncertainty shocks
Kollmann, Robert (2015-11-01)
This paper analyzes the effects of output volatility shocks and of risk appetite shocks on the dynamics of consumption, trade flows and the real exchange rate, in a two-country world with recursive preferences and complete financial markets. When the risk aversion coefficient exceeds the inverse of the intertemporal substitution elasticity, then an exogenous rise in a country?s output volatility triggers a wealth transfer to that country, in equilibrium; this raises its consumption, lowers its trade balance and appreciates its real exchange rate. The effects of risk appetite shocks resemble ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 258

Working Paper
Exchange Rate Policies at the Zero Lower Bound
Amador, Manuel; Bianchi, Javier; Bocola, Luigi; Perri, Fabrizio (2017-03-16)
We study how a monetary authority pursues an exchange rate objective in an environment that features a zero lower bound (ZLB) constraint on nominal interest rates and limits to international arbitrage. If the nominal interest rate that is consistent with interest rate parity is positive, the central bank can achieve its exchange rate objective by choosing that interest rate, a well-known result in international ?nance. However, if the rate consistent with parity is negative, pursuing an exchange rate objective necessarily results in zero nominal interest rates, deviations from parity, capital ...
Working Papers , Paper 740

Journal Article
The balance of payments crisis in the euro area periphery
Klitgaard, Thomas; Higgins, Matthew (2014)
Countries in the euro area periphery borrowed heavily from abroad in the years leading up to the sovereign debt crisis, largely to finance increased consumption and housing investment. When the crisis hit in 2010, capital flight by private investors forced these countries to bring domestic spending back into line with domestic incomes?the same adjustment required of countries facing a typical balance of payments crisis. Nevertheless, adjustment to the pullback of private capital was not as harsh as might have been expected, owing to the workings of the euro area?s system for managing ...
Current Issues in Economics and Finance , Volume 20

Working Paper
U.S. Monetary Policy and Fluctuations of International Bank Lending
Avdjiev, Stefan; Hale, Galina (2018-01-11)
There is no consensus in the empirical literature on the direction in which U.S. monetary policy affects cross-border bank lending. We find robust evidence that the impact of the U.S. federal funds rate on cross-border bank lending in a given period depends on the prevailing international capital flows regime and on the level of the two main components of the federal funds rate: macro fundamentals and monetary policy stance. During episodes in which bank lending from advanced to emerging economies is booming, the relationship between the federal funds rate and cross-border bank lending is ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2018-2

Report
International capital flow pressures
Goldberg, Linda S.; Krogstrup, Signe (2018-02-01)
This paper presents a new measure of capital flow pressures in the form of a recast exchange market pressure index. The measure captures pressures that materialize in actual international capital flows as well as pressures that result in exchange rate adjustments. The formulation is theory-based, relying on balance of payments equilibrium conditions and international asset portfolio considerations. Based on the modified exchange market pressure index, the paper also proposes a global risk response index, which reflects the country-specific sensitivity of capital flow pressures to measures of ...
Staff Reports , Paper 834

Working Paper
The Trade-Comovement Puzzle
Nosal, Jaromir B.; Drozd, Lukasz A.; Kolbin, Sergey (2020-01-02)
Standard international transmission mechanism of productivity shocks predicts a weak endogenous linkage between trade and business cycle synchronization: a problem known as the trade-comovement puzzle. We provide the foundational analysis of the puzzle, pointing to three natural candidate resolutions: i) financial market frictions; ii) Greenwood–Hercowitz–Huffman preferences; and iii) dynamic trade elasticity that is low in the short run but high in the long run. We show the effects of each of these candidate resolutions analytically and evaluate them quantitatively. We find that, while ...
Working Papers , Paper 20-01

Working Paper
Capital Controls and Monetary Policy Autonomy in a Small Open Economy
Davis, J. Scott; Presno, Ignacio (2017-02)
Is there a link between capital controls and monetary policy autonomy in a country with a floating currency? Shocks to capital flows into a small open economy lead to volatility in asset prices and credit supply. To lessen the impact of capital flows on financial instability, a central bank finds it optimal to use the domestic interest rate to "manage" the capital account. Capital account restrictions affect the behavior of optimal monetary policy following shocks to the foreign interest rate. Capital controls allow optimal monetary policy to focus less on the foreign interest rate and more ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1190

Working Paper
Internal Liquidity Management and Local Credit Provision
Goldrosen, Jason; Coleman, Nicholas; Feler, Leo; Correa, Ricardo (2017-05-01)
This paper studies the patterns of internal liquidity management and their effect on bank lending, using a novel branch-level dataset of Brazilian banks. Our results suggest that internal liquidity management increases during times of financial stress. Privately owned banks are most affected by a liquidity shock, and increase the level of internal funding to maintain their branch lending, while their government-owned competitors react strategically. Private and government banks increase the funding of branches in concentrated and riskier areas. This funding translates into more lending, as ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1204

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