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Working Paper
What drives the German current account? and how does it affect other EU member states?
Kollmann, Robert; in't Veld, Jan; Vogel, Lukas; Roeger, Werner; Ratto, Marco (2014-05-13)
We estimate a three-country model using 1995-2013 data for Germany, the Rest of the Euro Area (REA) and the Rest of the World (ROW) to analyze the determinants of Germany?s current account surplus after the launch of the Euro. The most important factors driving the German surplus were positive shocks to the German saving rate and to ROW demand for German exports, as well as German labour market reforms and other positive German aggregate supply shocks. The convergence of REA interest rates to German rates due to the creation of the Euro only had a modest effect on the German current account ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 176

Working Paper
The Effect of Foreign Lending on Domestic Loans : An Analysis of U.S. Global Banks
Pogach, Jonathan; Liu, Edith X. (2017-02)
This paper examines the effect of foreign lending on the domestic lending for US global banks. We show that greater foreign loan growth complements, rather than detracts from, domestic commercial lending. Exploiting a confidential data (FFIEC 009) on international loan exposure of US banks, we estimate that a 1% increase in foreign office lending is associated with a 0.6% growth in domestic commercial lending, suggesting complementarity across these lending channels. However, when capital raising is tight during the Global Financial Crisis of 2008, we find that foreign lending did come at the ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1198

Journal Article
U.S. international transactions in 2000
Gagnon, Joseph E. (2001-05)
The U.S. current account deficit widened to $435 billion in 2000, a record 4.4 percent of gross domestic product, as the lagged effect of strong growth in the U.S. economy in late 1999 and early 2000 continued to drive up imports of goods and services faster than exports increased. To a lesser extent, a decline in U.S. price competitiveness also contributed to the expansion in the deficit. The $104 billion increase in the current account deficit was entirely accounted for by an equal-sized increase in the goods and services deficit. Other components of the current account moved in small and ...
Federal Reserve Bulletin , Volume 87 , Issue May

Working Paper
The Impact of Bretton Woods International Capital Controls on the Global Economy and the Value of Geopolitical Stability: A General Equilibrium Analysis
Restrepo-Echavarria, Paulina; Wright, Mark L. J.; Ohanian, Lee E.; Van Patten, Diana (2025-04-11)
This paper quantifies the positive and normative effects of Bretton Woods capital controls on global economic activity. It applies a three-region DSGE model of the U.S., Western Europe, and the Rest of the World (ROW) that measures capital controls using observed regional consumption growth differences. We find sizable controls during Bretton Woods that prevented ROW capital from flowing to the U.S., and which reduced U.S. welfare and raised ROW welfare. By preventing capital flight in developing economies, we find that Bretton Woods controls promoted the U.S. foreign policy objective of ...
Working Papers , Paper 2020-042

Working Paper
U.S. Monetary Policy and Fluctuations of International Bank Lending
Avdjiev, Stefan; Hale, Galina (2018-01-11)
There is no consensus in the empirical literature on the direction in which U.S. monetary policy affects cross-border bank lending. We find robust evidence that the impact of the U.S. federal funds rate on cross-border bank lending in a given period depends on the prevailing international capital flows regime and on the level of the two main components of the federal funds rate: macro fundamentals and monetary policy stance. During episodes in which bank lending from advanced to emerging economies is booming, the relationship between the federal funds rate and cross-border bank lending is ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2018-2

Working Paper
Multinational firms' entry and productivity: some aggregate implications of firm-level heterogeneity
Contessi, Silvio (2015-09-01)
Despite the microeconomic evidence supporting the superior idiosyncratic productivity of multinational firms (MNFs) and their affiliates, cross-country studies fail to find robust evidence of a positive relationship between foreign direct investment and growth. In order to study the aggregate implications of MNFs entry and production, I develop a dynamic general equilibrium model with firm heterogeneity where MNFs sort according to their own productivity. The entry and production of MNFs contribute to aggregate productivity growth at decreasing rates and affect domestic producers through ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 248

Working Paper
China’s Current Account : External Rebalancing or Capital Flight?
Wong, Anna (2017-06-19)
This paper examines an anomaly in China?s current account: its large and rapidly growing travel expenditure. Drawing evidence from counterparty data, Chinese international arrival statistics, and gravity equation models extended to travel trade, I find that a significant amount of China?s travel spending in the period 2014-2016 could not be explained by accounting factors or economic fundamentals. The unexplained travel imports are inversely associated with domestic growth and positively associated with renminbi depreciation expectations against the dollar, suggesting that they are less ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1208

Working Paper
Banking Across Borders With Heterogeneous Banks
Niepmann, Friederike (2016-07-19)
This paper develops a model of banking across borders where banks differ in their efficiencies that can replicate key patterns in the data. More efficient banks are more likely to have assets, liabilities and affiliates abroad and have larger foreign operations. Banks are more likely to be active in countries that have less efficient domestic banks, are bigger and more open to foreign entry. In the model, banking sector integration leads to bank exit and entry and convergence in the return on loans and funding costs across countries. Bank heterogeneity matters for the associated welfare ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1177

Working Paper
Benefits of foreign ownership: evidence from foreign direct investment in china
Wang, Jian; Wang, Xiao (2014-09-01)
To examine the effect of foreign direct investment, this paper compares the post-acquisition performance changes of foreign- and domestic-acquired firms in China. Unlike previous studies, we investigate the purified effect of foreign ownership by using domestic-acquired firms as the control group. After controlling for the acquisition effect that also exists in domestic acquisitions, we find no evidence in the data that foreign ownership can bring productivity gains to target firms. In contrast, a strong and robust finding is that foreign ownership significantly improves target firms' ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 191

Report
Demography, national savings and international capital flows
Higgins, Matthew (1997-12-01)
This paper addresses the relationship between age distributions, national savings and the current account balance. The results point to substantial demographic effects, with increases in both the youth and old-age dependency ratios associated with lower savings rates. They also point to differential effects on savings and investment, and thus to a role for demography in determining the current account balance. The estimated demographic effect on the current account balance exceeds six percent of GDP over the last three decades for a number of countries and, given expected demographic trends, ...
Staff Reports , Paper 34

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