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Working Paper
Sovereign Wealth Funds: Stylized Facts about Their Determinance and Governance
Aizenman, Joshua; Glick, Reuven (2008-12-01)
This paper presents statistical analysis supporting stylized facts about sovereign wealth funds (SWFs). It discusses the forces leading to the growth of SWFs, including the role of fuel exports and ongoing current account surpluses, and large hoarding of international reserves. It analyzes the degree to which measures of SWF governance and transparency compare with national norms of behavior. We provide evidence that many countries with SWFs are characterized by effective governance but weak democratic institutions, as compared to other nonindustrial countries. We also present a model with ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2008-33

Report
Foreign Shocks as Granular Fluctuations
di Giovanni, Julian; Levchenko, Andrei A.; Mejean, Isabelle (2020-11-01)
This paper uses a data set covering the universe of French firm-level sales, imports, and exports over the period 1993-2007 and a quantitative multi-country model to study the international transmission of business cycle shocks at both the micro and the macro levels. The largest firms are both important enough to generate aggregate fluctuations (Gabaix 2011), and most likely to be internationally connected. This implies that foreign shocks are transmitted to the domestic economy primarily through the largest firms. We first document a novel stylized fact: larger French firms are significantly ...
Staff Reports , Paper 947

Working Paper
The Micro and Macro Dynamics of Capital Flows
Saffie, Felipe; Varela, Liliana; Yi, Kei-Mu (2025-08-01)
We study empirically and theoretically the effects of international financial flows on resource allocation. Using the universe of firms in Hungary, we show that removing capital controls lowers firms’ cost of capital and increases household consumption, with the latter playing a dominant role. The consumption channel leads to reallocation of resources toward high expenditure elasticity activities—such as services—promoting both the expansion of incumbents and firm entry. A multi-sector heterogeneous firm model replicates these dynamics. Our model shows that non-homotheticity in ...
Working Papers , Paper 2527

Working Paper
Benefits of foreign ownership: evidence from foreign direct investment in china
Wang, Jian; Wang, Xiao (2014-09-01)
To examine the effect of foreign direct investment, this paper compares the post-acquisition performance changes of foreign- and domestic-acquired firms in China. Unlike previous studies, we investigate the purified effect of foreign ownership by using domestic-acquired firms as the control group. After controlling for the acquisition effect that also exists in domestic acquisitions, we find no evidence in the data that foreign ownership can bring productivity gains to target firms. In contrast, a strong and robust finding is that foreign ownership significantly improves target firms' ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 191

Speech
U.S. monetary policy and emerging market economies
Dudley, William (2014-03-27)
Remarks at the Roundtable Discussion in Honor of Terrence Checki: Three Decades of Crises: What Have We Learned?, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City
Speech , Paper 133

Working Paper
Disentangling the Effects of the 2018-2019 Tariffs on a Globally Connected U.S. Manufacturing Sector
Flaaen, Aaron; Pierce, Justin R. (2019-12-26)
Since the beginning of 2018, the United States has undertaken unprecedented tariff increases, with one goal of these actions being to boost the manufacturing sector. In this paper, we estimate the effect of the tariffs---including retaliatory tariffs by U.S. trading partners---on manufacturing employment, output, and producer prices. A key feature of our analysis is accounting for the multiple ways that tariffs might affect the manufacturing sector, including providing protection for domestic industries, raising costs for imported inputs, and harming competitiveness in overseas markets due ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2019-086

Working Paper
When Trade Compresses: The Impact of Liberalization on Wage Inequality
Hernandez Martinez, Victor; Kozeniauskas, Nicholas; Merga, Roman (2026-01-12)
We study the effects of trade liberalization on the full wage distribution, exploiting Spain's 1993 entry into the European Single Market. Using employer-employee data, we identify the causal effects of trade across the entire wage distribution, using a novel shift-share instrument embedded in an unconditional quantile regression. We find that the liberalization reduced wage inequality, leading to wage compression through earnings gains at the bottom of the distribution and wage losses at the top. We trace this compression to two asymmetric channels: import competition disproportionately ...
Working Papers , Paper 26-01

Working Paper
Tariff Rate Uncertainty and the Structure of Supply Chains
Heise, Sebastian; Pierce, Justin R.; Schaur, Georg; Schott, Peter K. (2024-04-03)
We show that reducing the probability of a trade war promotes long-term importer-exporter relationships that ensure provision of high-quality inputs via incentive premia. Empirically, we introduce a method for distinguishing between these long-term relationships--which the literature has termed "Japanese" due to their introduction by Japanese firms--from spot-market relationships in customs data. We show that the use of "Japanese" relationships varies intuitively across trading partners and products and find that the use of such relationships increases after a reduction in the possibility of ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1389

Journal Article
Transmission of Sovereign Risk to Bank Lending
Başkaya, Yusuf Soner; Hardy, Bryan; Kalemli-Özcan, Ṣebnem; Yue, Vivian Z. (2023-02-27)
Banks hold a significant exposure to their own sovereigns. An increase in sovereign risk may hurt banks' balance sheets, causing a decrease in lending and a decline in economic activity. We quantify the transmission of sovereign risk to bank lending and provide new evidence about the effect of sovereign risk on economic outcomes. We consider the 1999 Marmara earthquake in Turkey as an exogenous shock leading to an increase in Turkey's default risk. Our empirical estimates show that, for banks holding a higher amount of government securities, the exogenous change in sovereign default risk ...
Policy Hub , Volume 2023 , Issue 2

Working Paper
A Theory of Economic Unions: A Comment
Monge-Naranjo, Alexander (2019-10-25)
Gino Gancia, Giacomo Ponzetto and Jaume Ventura have written an extremely interesting paper on a topic that is very timely for the global economy. In this article, I will first argue that GPV have succeeded in formalizing their hypothesis, and that while providing very suggestive analytical results, additional work can and should be done with the model, especially with regards to relative changes in the relative weights of incumbent countries. Second, I will comment on the potential insights if the rest of the world is modeled more realistically. Third, I will call for extending the baseline ...
Working Papers , Paper 2019-35

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