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Working Paper
Forward Looking Exporters
de Soyres, Francois; Frohm, Erik; Highkin, Emily; Mix, Carter (2023-07-13)
This paper studies the role of expectations in driving export adjustment. We assemble bilateral data on spot exchange rates, one year ahead exchange rate forecasts and HS2-product export data for 11 exporting countries and 64 destinations, covering the 2006–2014 period. Results from fixed effects regressions and an instrumental variables approach show that expectations of exchange rate changes are an important channel for export adjustment. A one percent expected exchange rate depreciation over the next year is associated with a 0.96 percent increase in the extensive margin (entry of new ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1377

Working Paper
Navigating the Waves of Global Shipping: Drivers and Aggregate Implications
Dunn, Jason; Leibovici, Fernando (2024-02)
This paper studies the drivers of global shipping dynamics and their aggregate implications. We document novel evidence on the dynamics of global shipping supply, demand, and costs. Motivated by this evidence, we set up a dynamic model of international trade with a global shipping market where shipping firms and importers endogenously determine shipping supply and costs. We find the model successfully accounts for the dynamics of global shipping observed in the aftermath of COVID-19 as well as at business cycle frequencies. We find that accounting for global shipping is critical for the ...
Working Papers , Paper 2023-002

Discussion Paper
COVID-19 Has Temporarily Supercharged China’s Export Machine
Clark, Hunter L. (2020-10-15)
China’s export performance this year has been stronger than expected. After a sharp slump at the beginning of 2020, the country’s exports have posted positive growth—the only major economy’s to do so. However, a closer look at the data reveals that this growth has not been very broad-based, but rather concentrated in areas where China’s export structure was well-positioned to take advantage of the global crisis—namely, production of medical supplies and school-from-home and work-from-home (S/WFH) goods. Once the COVID-19 crisis passes, China’s exports will likely return to their ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20201015

Working Paper
Learning to export from neighbors
Tang, Heiwai; Fernandes, Ana (2014-06-01)
This paper studies how learning from neighboring firms affects new exporters? performance. We develop a statistical decision model in which a firm updates its prior belief about demand in a foreign market based on several factors, including the number of neighbors currently selling there, the level and heterogeneity of their export sales, and the firm?s own prior knowledge about the market. A positive signal about demand inferred from neighbors? export performance raises the firm?s probability of entry and initial sales in the market but, conditional on survival, lowers its post-entry growth. ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 185

Working Paper
No Credit, No Gain: Trade Liberalization Dynamics, Production Inputs, and Financial Development
Szkup, Michal; Leibovici, Fernando; Kohn, David (2020-12)
We study the role of financial development on the aggregate and welfare implications of reducing trade barriers on imports of physical capital and intermediate inputs. We document that financially underdeveloped economies feature a slower response of real GDP, consumption, and investment following trade liberalization episodes that improve access to imported production inputs. To quantify the role of financial development, we set up a quantitative general equilibrium model with heterogeneous firms subject to financial constraints and estimate it to match salient features from Colombian ...
Working Papers , Paper 2020-038

Working Paper
No Credit, No Gain: Trade Liberalization Dynamics, Production Inputs, and Financial Development
Szkup, Michal; Leibovici, Fernando; Kohn, David (2022-03)
We study the role of financial development on the aggregate and welfare implications of reducing import tariffs on capital and intermediate inputs. We document that financially underdeveloped economies feature a slower aggregate response following trade liberalization. We set up a quantitative general equilibrium model with heterogeneous firms subject to collateral constraints and estimate it to match salient features from Colombian plant-level data. Our model explains a substantial fraction of the differences in the empirical responses of GDP, consumption, and capital across economies with ...
Working Papers , Paper 2020-038

Report
Estimation of cross-country differences in industry production functions.
Harrigan, James (1998-01-01)
International trade economists typically assume that there are no cross-country differences in industry total factor productivity (TFP). In contrast, this paper finds large and persistent TFP differences across a group of industrialized countries in the 1980s. The paper calculates TFP indices, and statistically examines the sources of the observed large TFP differences across countries. Two hypotheses are examined to account for TFP differences: constant returns to scale production with country-specific technological differences, and industry-level scale economies with identical technology in ...
Staff Reports , Paper 36

Working Paper
Sourcing substitution and related price index biases
Nakamura, Alice O.; Diewert, W. Erwin; Greenlees, John S.; Nakamura, Leonard I.; Reinsdorf, Marshall B. (2014-11-13)
We define a class of bias problems that arise when purchasers shift their expenditures among sellers charging different prices for units of precisely defined and interchangeable product items that are nevertheless regarded as different for the purposes of price measurement. For business-to-business transactions, these shifts can cause sourcing substitution bias in the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the Import Price Index (MPI), as well as potentially in the proposed new true Input Price Index (IPI). Similarly, when consumers shift their expenditures for the same products temporally to take ...
Working Papers , Paper 14-34

Working Paper
Trade barriers and the relative price tradables
Sposi, Michael (2013)
In this paper I quantitatively address the role of trade barriers in explaining why prices of services relative to tradables are positively correlated with levels of development across countries. I argue that trade barriers play a crucial role in shaping the cross-country pattern of specialization across many heterogenous tradable goods. The pattern of specialization feeds into cross-country productivity differences in the tradables sector and is reflected in the relative price of services. I show that the existing pattern of specialization implies that the tradables-sector productivity gap ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 139

Working Paper
International Trade Policy During a Pandemic
Leibovici, Fernando; Santacreu, Ana Maria (2021-09)
This paper studies international trade policy during a pandemic. We consider a multi-sector small open economy model with essential and non-essential goods. Essential goods provide utility relative to a reference consumption level, and a pandemic consists of an increase in this reference level along with higher import and export prices of these goods. The economy produces domestic varieties of both types of goods subject to sectoral adjustment costs, and varieties are traded internationally subject to trade barriers. We find that trade provides limited relief to the increased demand for ...
Working Papers , Paper 2020-010

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