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Journal Article
U.S. international transactions in 2000
Gagnon, Joseph E. (2001-05)
The U.S. current account deficit widened to $435 billion in 2000, a record 4.4 percent of gross domestic product, as the lagged effect of strong growth in the U.S. economy in late 1999 and early 2000 continued to drive up imports of goods and services faster than exports increased. To a lesser extent, a decline in U.S. price competitiveness also contributed to the expansion in the deficit. The $104 billion increase in the current account deficit was entirely accounted for by an equal-sized increase in the goods and services deficit. Other components of the current account moved in small and ...
Federal Reserve Bulletin , Volume 87 , Issue May

Working Paper
Assessing the Change in Labor Market Conditions
Ratner, David; Chung, Hess T.; Nekarda, Christopher J.; Fallick, Bruce (2015-01-06)
This paper describes a dynamic factor model of 19 U.S. labor market indicators, covering the broad categories of unemployment and underemployment, employment, workweeks, wages, vacancies, hiring, layoffs, quits, and surveys of consumers? and businesses? perceptions. The resulting labor market conditions index (LMCI) is a useful tool for gauging the change in labor market conditions. In addition, the model provides a way to organize discussions of the signal value of different labor market indicators in situations when they might be sending diverse signals. The model takes the greatest signal ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1438

Journal Article
Fiscal Relief during the COVID-19 Pandemic
Bi, Huixin; Gulati, Chaitri (2021-07-08)
In response to the sharp economic downturn during the COVID-19 pandemic, Congress passed unprecedented policy relief measures to support households, businesses, and the broader economy. Compared with previous fiscal stimulus responses, these relief programs have been unmatched in size and scope, speed of response, and novelty of design.Huixin Bi and Chaitri Gulati review recent empirical research on three fiscal relief programs—stimulus checks, augmented unemployment insurance (UI) benefits, and the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP)—to understand their effects on the broader economy as ...
Economic Review , Volume 106 , Issue no.2 , Pages 5-24

Working Paper
Mobility and Engagement Following the SARS-Cov-2 Outbreak
Koenig, Evan F.; Koch, Christoffer; Dolmas, Jim; Murphy, Anthony; Mertens, Karel; Yi, Kei-Mu; Atkinson, Tyler (2020-05-21)
We develop a Mobility and Engagement Index (MEI) based on a range of mobility metrics from Safegraph geolocation data, and validate the index with mobility data from Google and Unacast. We construct MEIs at the county, MSA, state and nationwide level, and link these measures to indicators of economic activity. According to our measures, the bulk of sheltering-in-place and social disengagement occurred during the week of March 15 and simultaneously across the U.S. At the national peak of the decline in mobility in early April, localities that engaged in a 10% larger decrease in mobility than ...
Working Papers , Paper 2014

Working Paper
How Fast are Semiconductor Prices Falling?
Oliner, Stephen D.; Sichel, Daniel E.; Byrne, David M. (2017-01)
The Producer Price Index (PPI) for the United States suggests that semiconductor prices have barely been falling in recent years, a dramatic contrast to the rapid declines reported from the mid-1980s to the early 2000s. This slowdown in the rate of decline is puzzling in light of evidence that the performance of microprocessor units (MPUs) has continued to improve at a rapid pace. Over the course of the 2000s, the MPU prices posted by Intel, the dominant producer of MPUs, became much stickier over the chips' life cycle. As a result of this change, we argue that the matched-model methodology ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2017-005

Speech
Is the active use of macroprudential tools institutionally realistic?
Dudley, William (2015-10-03)
Panel remarks at the Macroprudential Monetary Policy Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Boston, Massachusetts.
Speech , Paper 180

Journal Article
U.S. international transactions in 1999
Warnock, Francis E. (2000-05)
The U.S. current account deficit increased substantially in 1999 as the balances on goods and services, investment income, and unilateral transfers all became more negative. The remarkable strength of the U.S. economy contributed significantly to a marked decrease in the balance on goods and services; to a lesser extent, previous declines in U.S. price competitiveness also played a role. The balance on investment income decreased because of the additional net income payments on the growing U.S. external indebtedness. In 2000, domestic spending may well continue to outstrip domestic production ...
Federal Reserve Bulletin , Volume 86 , Issue May , Pages 301-314

Briefing
The impact of policy uncertainty on U. S. employment: industry evidence
Wang, J. Christina (2013)
The anemic pace of the recovery of the U. S. economy from the Great Recession has frequently been blamed on heightened uncertainty, much of which concerns the nation?s fiscal policy. Intuition suggests that increased policy uncertainty likely has different impacts on different industries, to the extent that industries differ in their exposure to government policies. This study utilizes industry data to explore whether policy uncertainty indeed affects the dynamics of employment, and particularly its impact on industry employment, during this recovery. This analysis focuses on heterogeneity ...
Public Policy Brief

Working Paper
The forecasting power of consumer attitudes for consumer spending
Olivei, Giovanni P.; Barnes, Michelle L. (2014-10-30)
The widely studied Reuters/Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment is constructed from the answers to five questions from the more comprehensive Reuters/Michigan Surveys of Consumers. Yet little work has been done on what predictive power the information taken from this more thorough compilation of consumer attitudes and expectations may have for forecasting consumption expenditures. The authors construct a limited set of real-time summary measures for 42 questions selected from these broader Surveys corresponding to three broad economic determinants of consumption?income and wealth, prices, and ...
Working Papers , Paper 14-10

Working Paper
Assessing the Change in Labor Market Conditions
Ratner, David; Chung, Hess T.; Nekarda, Christopher J.; Fallick, Bruce (2014-12-17)
This paper describes a dynamic factor model of 19 U.S. labor market indicators, covering the broad categories of unemployment and underemployment, employment, workweeks, wages, vacancies, hiring, layoffs, quits, and surveys of consumers' and businesses' perceptions. The resulting labor market conditions index (LMCI) is a useful tool for gauging the change in labor market conditions. In addition, the model provides a way to organize discussions of the signal value of different labor market indicators in situations when they might be sending diverse signals. The model takes the greatest signal ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2014-109

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