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Journal Article
Is the Last Mile More Arduous?
Rapach, David E. (2024-01-16)
US inflation surged starting in spring 2021, with Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation reaching a 40-year high of 9 percent in mid-2022. Together with improving supply-chain conditions, policy tightening by the Fed decreased inflation to within 1 to 2 percentage points of its 2 percent target by late 2023 without a significant increase in unemployment. However, concerns have been raised that the last mile of disinflation to reduce inflation consistently to its 2 percent target will be more arduous than the previous miles. Close examination of such concerns indicates that they do not receive ...
Policy Hub , Volume 2024 , Issue 1

Working Paper
A Quantitative Theory of Time-Consistent Unemployment Insurance
Xie, Zoe; Pei, Yun (2016-11-01)
During recessions, the U.S. government substantially increases the duration of unemployment insurance (UI) benefits through multiple extensions. This paper seeks to understand the incentives driving these increases. Because of the trade-off between insurance and job search incentives, the classic time-inconsistency problem arises. During recessions, the U.S. government substantially increases the duration of unemployment insurance (UI) benefits through multiple extensions. This paper seeks to understand the incentives driving these extensions. Because of the trade-off between insurance and ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2016-11

Working Paper
Decentralization and Overborrowing in a Fiscal Federation
Pei, Yun; Xie, Zoe; Guo, Si (2018-08-23)
We build an infinite horizon equilibrium model of fiscal federation, where anticipation of transfers from the central government creates incentives for local governments to overborrow. Absent commitment, the central government over-transfers, which distorts the central-local distribution of resources. Applying the model to fiscal decentralization, we find when decentralization widens local governments' fiscal gap, borrowings by both local and central governments rise. Quantitatively, fiscal decentralization accounts for from 19 percent to 40 percent of changes in general government debt in ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2018-9

Working Paper
Should the Fed regularly evaluate its monetary policy framework?
Rosengren, Eric; Fuhrer, Jeffrey C.; Tootell, Geoffrey M. B.; Olivei, Giovanni P. (2018-10-01)
Would a more open and regular evaluation of the monetary policy framework improve policy in the United States? Even when considering a relatively short timeframe that spans the 1960s to the present, it is possible to point to many significant changes to the framework. Some of the changes were precipitated by acute economic conditions, while others were considered and implemented only gradually as a response to long-standing problems with the framework. But the process for evaluating and changing frameworks to date has not always been transparent, and changes have not always been timely. Could ...
Working Papers , Paper 18-8

Working Paper
Optimal monetary policy under model uncertainty without commitment
Presno, Ignacio; Orlik, Anna (2013-10-27)
This paper studies the design of optimal time-consistent monetary policy in an economy where the planner trusts its own model, while a representative household uses a set of alternative probability distributions governing the evolution of the exogenous state of the economy. In such environments, unlike in the original studies of time-consistent monetary policy, managing households' expectations becomes an active channel of optimal policymaking per se, a feature that the paternalistic government seeks to exploit. We adapt recursive methods in the spirit of Abreu, Pearce, and Stacchetti (1990) ...
Working Papers , Paper 13-20

Working Paper
Designing a simple loss function for the Fed: does the dual mandate make sense?
Nunes, Ricardo; Debortoli, Davide; Lindé, Jesper; Kim, Jinill (2015-03-10)
Variable and high rates of price inflation in the 1970s and 1980s led many countries to delegate the conduct of monetary policy to "instrument-independent" central banks and to give their central banks a clear mandate to pursue price stability and instrument independence to achieve it. Advances in academic research supported a strong focus on price stability as a means to enhance the independence and credibility of monetary policymakers. An overwhelming majority of these central banks also adopted an explicit inflation target to further strengthen credibility and facilitate accountability. ...
Working Papers , Paper 15-3

Working Paper
Output Hysteresis and Optimal Monetary Policy
Singh, Sanjay R.; Garga, Vaishali (2019-12-01)
We analyze the implications for monetary policy when deficient aggregate demand can cause a permanent loss in potential output, a phenomenon we term output hysteresis. In the model, the incomplete stabilization of a temporary shortfall in demand reduces the return to innovation, thus reducing total factor productivity growth and generating a permanent loss in output. Using a purely quadratic approximation to welfare under endogenous growth, we derive normative implications for monetary policy. Away from the zero lower bound (ZLB), optimal commitment policy sets interest rates to eliminate ...
Working Papers , Paper 19-19

Working Paper
The Federal Reserve System and World War I: Designing Policies without Precedent
Jacobson, Margaret M.; Tallman, Ellis W. (2015-07-07)
The Federal Reserve System failed to prevent the collapse of intermediation during the Great Depression (1929-1933) and took action as if it was unaware of policies that should have been taken in the event of widespread bank runs. The National Banking Era panics and techniques to alleviate them should have been useful references for how to alleviate a financial crisis. We suggest that the overwhelming effort to finance World War I combined with a perspective held by contemporary Federal Reserve officials that the central bank legislation was sufficient to overcome financial crises are key ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1510

Working Paper
Targeting Long Rates in a Model with Segmented Markets
Paustian, Matthias; Carlstrom, Charles T.; Fuerst, Timothy S. (2014-10-15)
This paper develops a model of segmented financial markets in which the net worth of financial institutions limits the degree of arbitrage across the term structure. The model is embedded into the canonical Dynamic New Keynesian (DNK) framework. We estimate the model using data on the term premium. Our principal results include the following. First, the estimated segmentation coefficient implies a nontrivial effect of central bank asset purchases on yields and real activity. Second, there are welfare gains to having the central bank respond to the term premium, eg., including the term premium ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1419

Working Paper
Optimal Contracts, Aggregate Risk, and the Financial Accelerator
Paustian, Matthias; Carlstrom, Charles T.; Fuerst, Timothy S. (2014-10-16)
This paper derives the optimal lending contract in the financial accelerator model of Bernanke, Gertler and Gilchrist (1999), hereafter BGG. The optimal contract includes indexation to the aggregate return on capital, household consumption, and the return to internal funds. This triple indexation results in a dampening of fluctuations in leverage and the risk premium. Hence, compared with the contract originally imposed by BGG, the privately optimal contract implies essentially no financial accelerator.
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1420

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