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Conference Paper
Macroeconomic Policy in an Uneven Economy: An Introduction to the Bank's 2021 Economic Symposium
Gruber, Joseph W. (2021-08-27)
Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole

Working Paper
Institutional quality, the cyclicality of monetary policy and macroeconomic volatility
Duncan, Roberto (2013-12-31)
In contrast to industrialized countries, emerging market economies are characterized by proor acyclical monetary policies and high output volatility. This paper argues that those facts can be related to a long-run feature of the economy - namely, its institutional quality (IQL). The paper presents evidence that supports the link between an index of IQL (law and order, government stability, investment profile, etc.), and (i) the cyclicality of monetary policy, and (ii) the volatilities of output and the nominal interest rate. In a DSGE model, foreign investors that choose a portfolio of direct ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 163

Working Paper
On the Economic Mechanics of Warfare
Vandenbroucke, Guillaume (2023-06)
A large literature is concerned with war finance, but there is little by way of understanding how war-related expenditures affect the economically-relevant outcomes of wars, e.g., prevailing side, duration, or destruction and casualties. I present a model of attrition in which I characterize the effects of resources on the outcomes of war for a military conclusion (when one side cannot fight anymore) and a political conclusion (when one side does not want to fight anymore). I discuss the role of GDP for both types of conclusion. I also analyze the mechanics of third-party support to a small ...
Working Papers , Paper 2023-007

Discussion Paper
Could Rising Household Debt Undercut China’s Economy?
Clark, Hunter L.; Dawson, Jeffrey B. (2019-02-13)
Although there has been a notable deceleration in the pace of credit growth recently, the run-up in debt in China has been eye-popping, accounting for more than 60 percent of all new credit created globally over the past ten years. Rising nonfinancial sector debt was driven initially by an increase in corporate borrowing, which surged in 2009 in response to the global financial crisis. The most recent leg of China’s credit boom has been due to an important shift toward household lending. To better understand the rise in household debt in China and its implications for financial stability ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20190213

Working Paper
Credit markets, limited commitment, and government debt
Carapella, Francesca; Williamson, Stephen D. (2014-02-24)
A dynamic model with credit under limited commitment is constructed, in which limited memory can weaken the effects of punishment for default. This creates an endogenous role for government debt in credit markets, and the economy can be non-Ricardian. Default can occur in equilibrium, and government debt essentially plays a role as collateral and thus improves borrowers? incentives. The provision of government debt acts to discourage default, whether default occurs in equilibrium or not.
Working Papers , Paper 2014-10

Working Paper
An Empirical Analysis of the Cost of Borrowing
Faria-e-Castro, Miguel; Kozlowski, Julian; Jordan-Wood, Samuel (2024-07-15)
We examine borrowing costs for firms using a security-level database with bank loans and corporate bonds issued by U.S. companies. We find significant within-firm dispersion in borrowing rates, even after controlling for security and firm observable characteristics. Obtaining a bank loan is 132 basis points cheaper than issuing a bond, after accounting for observable factors. Changes in borrowing costs have persistent negative impacts on firm-level outcomes, such as investment and borrowing, and these effects vary across sectors. These findings contribute to our understanding of borrowing ...
Working Papers , Paper 2024-016

Working Paper
Employment and Welfare Effects of the Quota for Disabled Workers in Brazil
de Souza, Gustavo (2020-10-11)
I study the effect of a quota for disabled workers on the labor market and on welfare. Using a task-based model, I show that the effect of a quota will depend on the productivity of disabled workers and their labor supply elasticity. I estimate the productivity of disabled workers using variation from inspections of the quota. I find that the quota increased the hiring of disabled workers, but it reduced wages and employment of non-disabled workers, suggesting that the quota reduced firms’ productivity. I estimate the labor supply elasticity of disabled workers using heterogeneous exposure ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP 2023-11

Working Paper
How Much has Wealth Concentration Grown in the United States? A Re-Examination of Data from 2001-2013
Bricker, Jesse; Volz, Alice Henriques; Hansen, Peter (2018-04-13)
Well known research based on capitalized income tax data shows robust growth in wealth concentration in the late 2000s. We show that these robust growth estimates rely on an assumption---homogeneous rates of return across the wealth distribution---that is not supported by data. When the capitalization model incorporates heterogeneous rates of return (on just interest-bearing assets), wealth concentration estimates in 2011 fall from 40.5% to 33.9%. These estimates are consistent in levels and trend with other micro wealth data and show that wealth concentration increases until the Great ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2018-024

Working Paper
Fiscal Policy during a Pandemic
Faria-e-Castro, Miguel (2020-03-24)
I study the effects of the 2019-20 coronavirus outbreak in the United States and subsequent fiscal policy response in a nonlinear DSGE model. The pandemic is a shock to the utility of contact-intensive services that propagates to other sectors via general equilibrium, triggering a deep recession. I use a calibrated version of the model to analyze different types of fiscal policies. I find that UI benefits are the most effective tool to stabilize income for borrowers, who are the hardest hit, while savers may favor unconditional transfers. Liquidity assistance programs are effective if the ...
Working Papers , Paper 2020-006

Discussion Paper
Exploring the TIPS‑Treasury Valuation Puzzle
Roussellet, Guillaume (2024-07-01)
Since the late 1990s, the U.S. Treasury has issued debt in two main forms: nominal bonds, which provide fixed-cash scheduled payments, and Treasury Inflation Protected Securities—or TIPS—which provide the holder with inflation-protected payments that rise with U.S. inflation. At the heart of their relative valuation lie market participants’ expectations of future inflation, an object of interest for academics, policymakers, and investors alike. After briefly reviewing the theoretical and empirical links between TIPS and Treasury yields, this post, based on a recent research paper, ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20240701

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