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Working Paper
A Crisis of Missed Opportunities? Foreclosure Costs and Mortgage Modification During the Great Recession
Iacoviello, Matteo; Lutz, Chandler; Gabriel, Stuart A. (2020-07-06)
We investigate the impact of Great Recession policies in California that substantially increased lender pecuniary and time costs of foreclosure. We estimate that the California Foreclosure Prevention Laws (CFPLs) prevented 250,000 California foreclosures (a 20% reduction) and created $300 billion in housing wealth. The CFPLs boosted mortgage modifications and reduced borrower transitions into default. They also mitigated foreclosure externalities via increased maintenance spending on homes that entered foreclosure. The CFPLs had minimal adverse side effects on the availability of mortgage ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2020-053

Working Paper
International Transmission of Japanese Monetary Shocks Under Low and Negative Interest Rates: A Global Favar Approach
Tai, Andrew; Spiegel, Mark M. (2017-02-28)
We examine the implications of Japanese monetary shocks under recent very low and sometimes negative interest rates to the Japanese economy as well as three of its major trading partners: Korea, China and the United States. We follow the literature in using movements in 2-year Japanese government bond rates as proxies for changes in monetary conditions in the neighborhood of the zero lower bound. We examine the implications of shocks to the 2-year rate in a series of factor-augmented vector autoregressive?or FAVAR?models, in which both local and global conditions are proxied by latent factors ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2017-8

Working Paper
Central bank preparedness for market-functioning asset purchases as a consideration for long-run balance sheet composition
Edge, Rochelle M.; Li, Dan (2025-09-05)
This paper proposes an approach to enhance the Federal Reserve's readiness to undertake market-functioning asset purchases during Treasury market disruptions. It notes that by tilting the SOMA Treasury portfolio toward bills rather than maintaining a maturity structure proportionate to that of outstanding Treasury debt—often viewed as the most neutral portfolio—the Fed can create a larger volume of reinvestments each month that can serve as a “war chest” for undertaking market-functioning asset purchases. This structure of the SOMA Treasury portfolio enables market-functioning asset ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2025-077

Journal Article
Macroprudential policy: a case study from a tabletop exercise
Adrian, Tobias; Yang, Emily; de Fontnouvelle, Patrick; Zlate, Andrei (2017-23-01)
Since the global financial crisis of 2007-09, policymakers and academics have advocated the use of prudential policy tools to reduce the risks that could inhibit the financial sector?s ability to intermediate credit. The use of such tools in the service of financial stability is often called macroprudential policy. This article describes a ?tabletop? exercise in which Federal Reserve Bank presidents were presented with a hypothetical scenario of overheating markets and asked to consider the effectiveness of macroprudential policy approaches in averting or moderating the financial disruptions ...
Economic Policy Review , Issue 23-1 , Pages 1-30

Report
Fiscal implications of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet normalization
Grasing, Jamie; Rosa, Carlo; Frame, W. Scott; Malin, Benjamin A.; Cavallo, Michele; Del Negro, Marco (2018-01-01)
The paper surveys the recent literature on the fiscal implications of central bank balance sheets, with a special focus on political economy issues. It then presents the results of simulations that describe the effects of different scenarios for the Federal Reserve's longer-run balance sheet on its earnings remittances to the U.S. Treasury and, more broadly, on the government's overall fiscal position. We find that reducing longer-run reserve balances from $2.3 trillion (roughly the current amount) to $1 trillion reduces the likelihood of posting a quarterly net loss in the future from 30 ...
Staff Reports , Paper 833

Working Paper
Modeling Yields at the Zero Lower Bound: Are Shadow Rates the Solution?
Christensen, Jens H. E.; Rudebusch, Glenn D. (2013-12-17)
Recent U.S. Treasury yields have been constrained to some extent by the zero lower bound (ZLB) on nominal interest rates. In modeling these yields, we compare the performance of a standard affine Gaussian dynamic term structure model (DTSM), which ignores the ZLB, and a shadow-rate DTSM, which respects the ZLB. We find that the standard affine model is likely to exhibit declines in fit and forecast performance with very low interest rates. In contrast, the shadow-rate model mitigates ZLB problems significantly and we document superior performance for this model class in the most recent period.
Working Paper Series , Paper 2013-39

Working Paper
Exploring the Role of the Real Exchange Rate in Australian Monetary Policy
Dennis, Richard (2002-06-01)
An important issue in small open-economies is whether policymakers should respond to exchange rate movements when they formulate monetary policy. Micro-founded models tend to suggest that there is little to be gained from responding to exchange rate movements, and the literature has largely concluded that such a response is unnecessary, or even undesirable (Taylor, 2001). This paper examines this issue using an estimated model of the Australian economy. In contrast to micro-founded models, according to this model policymakers should allow for movements in the real exchange rage and the ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2002-19

Working Paper
Navigating Constraints: The Evolution of Federal Reserve Monetary Policy, 1935-59
Carlson, Mark A.; Wheelock, David C. (2014-06-09)
The 1950s are often pointed to as a decade in which the Federal Reserve operated a particularly successful monetary policy. The present paper examines the evolution of Federal Reserve monetary policy from the mid-1930s through the 1950s in an effort to understand better the apparent success of policy in the 1950s. Whereas others have debated whether the Fed had a sophisticated understanding of how to implement policy, our focus is on how the constraints on the Fed changed over time. Roosevelt Administration gold policies and New Deal legislation limited the Fed's ability to conduct an ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2014-44

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