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Discussion Paper
Is Monetary Policy Still Seasonal?
Crump, Richard K.; Dogra, Keshav; Kongoli, Dennis (2025-11-19)
A 2012 Liberty Street Economics post noted that U.S. monetary policy exhibits a surprising degree of seasonal behavior: over the 1987-2008 period, the Federal Reserve was much more likely to lower interest rates (or abstain from raising rates) in the first month of each quarter than in the two subsequent months. Thirteen years later, we revisit that analysis to investigate whether the seasonal pattern in monetary policy still holds today, in the wake of a rate hiking cycle, a pandemic, a surge in inflation, and a second round of rate hikes. We find that the pattern has indeed continued; ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20251119

Working Paper
What Does Anticipated Monetary Policy Do?
King, Thomas B.; D'Amico, Stefania (2015-11-10)
Forward rate guidance, which has been used with increasing regularity by monetary policymakers, relies on the manipulation of expectations of future short-term interest rates. We identify shocks to these expectations at short and long horizons since the early 1980s and examine their effects on contemporaneous macroeconomic outcomes. Our identification uses sign restrictions on survey forecasts incorporated in a structural VAR model to isolate expected deviations from the monetary policy rule. We find that expectations of future policy easing that materialize over the subsequent four quarters ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2015-10

Working Paper
Interest on Reserves, Interbank Lending, and Monetary Policy
Williamson, Stephen D. (2015-09-13)
A two-sector general equilibrium banking model is constructed to study the functioning of a floor system of central bank intervention. Only retail banks can hold reserves, and these banks are also subject to a capital requirement, which creates ?balance sheet costs? of holding reserves. An increase in the interest rate on reserves has very different qualitative effects from a reduction in the central bank?s balance sheet. Increases in the central bank?s balance sheet can have redistributive effects, and can reduce welfare. A reverse repo facility at the central bank puts a floor un- der the ...
Working Papers , Paper 2015-24

Working Paper
International Spillovers of Monetary Policy : Conventional Policy vs. Quantitative Easing
Curcuru, Stephanie E.; Kamin, Steven B.; Rodriguez, Marius del Giudice; Li, Canlin (2018-08-21)
This paper evaluates the popular view that quantitative easing exerts greater international spillovers than conventional monetary policies. We employ a novel approach to compare the international spillovers of conventional and balance sheet policies undertaken by the Federal Reserve. In principle, conventional monetary policy affects bond yields and financial conditions by affecting the expected path of short rates, while balance-sheet policy is believed act through the term premium. To distinguish the effects of these two types of policies we use a term structure model to decompose ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1234

Working Paper
A Framework for Understanding the Vulnerabilities of New Money-Like Products
Anadu, Kenechukwu E.; McCabe, Patrick E.; Perez-Sangimino, JP; Swem, Nathan (2026-06-22)
New money-like products, such as tokenized money market funds (MMFs), money market exchange-traded funds (MMETFs), and stablecoins, could be transformative for finance. These products may offer significant benefits, but like other money-like assets, they also have certain vulnerabilities. We introduce a framework to analyze the vulnerabilities of new products by comparing their features to those that contribute to vulnerabilities in MMFs. Specifically, we examine the extent to which each product engages in liquidity transformation, is subject to threshold effects, serves as a money-like ...
Supervisory Research and Analysis Working Papers , Paper SRA 26-01 (revised)

Working Paper
A model of monetary policy shocks for financial crises and normal conditions
Smith, Andrew Lee; Valcarcel, Victor J.; Keating, John W.; Kelly, Logan J. (2014-10-01)
In late 2008, deteriorating economic conditions led the Federal Reserve to lower the federal funds rate to near zero and inject massive liquidity into the financial system through novel facilities. The combination of conventional and unconventional measures complicates the challenging task of characterizing the effects of monetary policy. We develop a novel method of identifying these effects that maintains the classic assumptions that a central bank reacts to output and the price level contemporaneously and may only affect these variables with a lag. A New-Keynesian DSGE model augmented with ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 14-11

Journal Article
A Model of U.S. Monetary Policy Before and After the Great Recession
Andolfatto, David (2015)
The author studies a simple dynamic general equilibrium monetary model to interpret key macroeconomic developments in the U.S. economy both before and after the Great Recession. In normal times, when the Federal Reserve?s policy rate is above the interest paid on reserves, countercyclical monetary policy works in a textbook manner. When a shock drives the policy rate to the zero lower bound, the economy enters a liquidity-trap scenario in which open market purchases of government securities have no real or nominal effects, apart from expanding the supply of excess reserves in the banking ...
Review , Volume 97 , Issue 3 , Pages 233-56

Working Paper
Global Inflation, Regional Factors
Sheremirov, Viacheslav; Stein, Hillary (2025-08-01)
This paper shows that global inflation dynamics have a sizable regional component. Using a balanced panel of 61 countries that starts in 1970, we document that while the global factor, defined as the dominant principal component, explains a large portion of inflation variation in advanced economies, a model with only one principal component is less successful for developing countries. By contrast, a hierarchical dynamic factor model, which includes a global (unconstrained) factor and regional (restricted) factors, performs substantially better for emerging market and developing economies. The ...
Working Papers , Paper 25-6

Working Paper
Persistence Dependence in Empirical Relations: The Velocity of Money
Verbrugge, Randal J.; Ashley, Richard (2015-12-15)
Standard theory predicts persistence dependence in numerous economic relationships. (For example, persistence dependence is precisely the kind of nonlinear relationship posited in the Permanent Income Hypothesis; persistence dependence is the inverse of ?frequency dependence? in a relationship.) Until recently, however, it was challenging to achieve credible inference about persistence dependence in an economic relationship using available methods. However, recently developed econometric tools (Ashley and Verbrugge, 2009a) allow one to elegantly quantify the variation in a time-series ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1530

Discussion Paper
How Do Central Bank Balance Sheets Change in Times of Crisis?
Søvik, Ylva; Martin, Antoine; Eisner, Emily (2016-02-04)
The 2007-09 financial crisis, and the monetary policy response to it, have greatly increased the size of central bank balance sheets around the world. These changes were not always well understood and some were controversial. We discuss these crisis-induced changes, following yesterday’s post on the composition of central bank balance sheets in normal times, and explain the policy intentions behind some of them.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20160204

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