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Discussion Paper
When Are Central Bank Reserves Ample?
Afonso, Gara; Giannone, Domenico; La Spada, Gabriele; Williams, John C. (2024-08-13)
The Federal Reserve (Fed) implements monetary policy in a regime of ample reserves, whereby short-term interest rates are controlled mainly through the setting of administered rates. To do so, the quantity of reserves in the banking system needs to be large enough that everyday changes in reserves do not cause large variations in the policy rate, the so-called federal funds rate. As the Fed shrinks its balance sheet following the plan laid out by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in 2022, how can it assess when to stop so that the supply of reserves remains ample? In the first post of ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20240813

Report
Stablecoin Disintermediation
Lee, Michael Junho; Tou, Donny (2026-02-01)
We propose a theory of stablecoin disintermediation, whereby stablecoins not only erode banks’ deposit franchises but also transmit liquidity stress to the banking system. Using transaction-level data linking on-chain transactions to wholesale interbank payments, we document the first evidence of liquidity-driven bank disintermediation. Stablecoins directly transmit liquidity shocks to the banking system: banks with stablecoin deposits experience substantial increases in payment demand and heightened liquidity exposure to daily stablecoin primary market activity. Consistent with theory, ...
Staff Reports , Paper 1185

Working Paper
Technological progress, the \"user cost of money,\" and the real output of banks
Basu, Susanto; Wang, J. Christina (2013-12-31)
Financial institutions provide their customers a variety of unpriced services and cover their costs through interest margins - the interest rates they receive on assets are generally higher than the rates they pay on liabilities. In particular, banks pay below-public-market interest rates on deposits while charging above-public-market rates on loans. Various authors have suggested that this situation allows one to measure the real quantity of financial services provided without explicit prices as proportional to the real stocks of financial assets held by households. We present a ...
Working Papers , Paper 13-21

Working Paper
Online Appendix for: The Welfare Costs of Inflation
Benati, Luca; Nicolini, Juan Pablo (2021-09-24)
Working Papers , Paper 784

Discussion Paper
Interoperability of Blockchain Systems and the Future of Payments
Durfee, Jon; Wang, Sarah; Torregrossa, Joseph; Lee, Michael Junho (2025-03-27)
In a previous post, we introduced a three-pillar framework for interoperability of payment systems and discussed how technological, legal, and economic factors contribute to achieve interoperability and aid in the “singleness of money”—that payments and exchange are not subject to volatility in the value of the money itself—in the context of legacy systems. In this post, we use the framework to characterize the interoperability of blockchain systems and propose a methodology for evaluating interoperability. We show evidence of limited interoperability and draw insights for the future ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20250327b

Working Paper
Money Matters: Broad Divisia Money and the Recovery of Nominal GDP from the COVID-19 Recession
Bordo, Michael D.; Duca, John V. (2023-05-25)
The rise of inflation in 2021 and 2022 surprised many macroeconomists who ignored the earlier surge in money growth because past instability in the demand for simple-sum monetary aggregates had made these aggregates unreliable indicators. We find that the demand for more theoretically-based Divisia aggregates can be modeled and that their growth rates provide useful information for future nominal GDP growth.Unlike M2 and Divisia-M2, whose velocities do not internalize shifts in liabilities across commercial and shadow banks, the velocities of broader Divisia monetary aggregates are more ...
Working Papers , Paper 2306

Working Paper
What Drives U.S. Treasury Re-use?
Infante, Sebastian; Saravay, Zack (2020-12-18)
We study what drives the re-use of U.S. Treasury securities in the financial system. Using confidential supervisory data, we estimate the degree of collateral re-use at the dealer level through their collateral multiplier : the ratio between a dealer's secured funding and their outright holdings. We find that Treasury re-use increases as the supply of available securities decreases, especially when supply declines due to Federal Reserve asset purchases. We also find that non-U.S. dealers' re-use increases when profits from intermediating cash are high, U.S. dealers' re-use increases when ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2020-103

Working Paper
Money, liquidity and welfare
Wen, Yi (2014-02-07)
This paper develops an analytically tractable Bewley model of money demand to shed light on some important questions in monetary theory, such as the welfare cost of inflation. It is shown that when money is a vital form of liquidity to meet uncertain consumption needs, the welfare costs of inflation can be extremely large. With log utility and parameter values that best match both the aggregate money demand curve suggested by Lucas (2000) and the variance of household consumption, agents in our model are willing to reduce consumption by 3% ~ 4% to avoid 10% annual inflation. The astonishingly ...
Working Papers , Paper 2014-3

Working Paper
Two Illustrations of the Quantity Theory of Money Reloaded
Gao, Han; Kulish, Mariano; Nicolini, Juan Pablo (2020-12-15)
In this paper, we review the relationship between inflation rates, nominal interest rates, and rates of growth of monetary aggregates for a large group of OECD countries. We conclude that the low-frequency behavior of these series maintains a close relationship, as predicted by standard quantity theory models. In an estimated model, we show those relationships to be relatively invariant to alternative frictions that can deliver very different high-frequency dynamics. We argue that these relationships are useful for policy design aimed at controlling inflation.
Working Papers , Paper 774

Report
Scarce, Abundant, or Ample? A Time-Varying Model of the Reserve Demand Curve
Williams, John C.; Giannone, Domenico; Afonso, Gara; La Spada, Gabriele (2022-05-01)
What level of central bank reserves satiates banks’ demand for liquidity? We estimate the slope of the reserve demand curve in the U.S. over 2010–2024 using a time-varying instrumental-variable approach at the daily frequency. When reserves exceed 12-13 percent of banks’ assets, demand for reserves is satiated and reserves are abundant; below this threshold, the curve’s slope becomes increasingly negative as reserves decline from ample to scarce. We also find that reserve demand has shifted over time, both vertically and horizontally, and identify important drivers of vertical shifts. ...
Staff Reports , Paper 1019

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