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Working Paper
Forecasting China's Economic Growth and Inflation
Zhong, Karen; Zha, Tao; Higgins, Patrick C. (2016-07-01)
Although macroeconomic forecasting forms an integral part of the policymaking process, there has been a serious lack of rigorous and systematic research in the evaluation of out-of-sample model-based forecasts of China's real gross domestic product (GDP) growth and consumer price index inflation. This paper fills this research gap by providing a replicable forecasting model that beats a host of other competing models when measured by root mean square errors, especially over long-run forecast horizons. The model is shown to be capable of predicting turning points and usable for policy analysis ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2016-7

Working Paper
The Dynamics of Large Inflation Surges
Blanco, Andrés; Ottonello, Pablo; Ranošová, Tereza (2024-09-23)
We empirically characterize episodes of large inflation surges that have been observed worldwide in the last three decades. We document four facts. (1) Inflation surges tend to be persistent, with the duration of disinflation exceeding that of the initial inflation increase. (2) Surges are initially unexpected but followed by a gradual catch-up of average short-term expectations with realized inflation. (3) Long-term inflation expectations tend to exhibit increases that persist throughout disinflation. (4) Policy responses are characterized by hikes in nominal interest rates but no tightening ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2024-9

Working Paper
Price dispersion and inflation: new facts and theoretical implications
Sheremirov, Viacheslav (2015-07-01)
From a macroeconomic perspective, price rigidity is often perceived to be an important source of price dispersion, with significant implications for the dynamic properties of aggregate variables, welfare calculations, and the design of optimal policy. For instance, in standard New Keynesian models, the key cost of business cycles stems from the price dispersion resulting from firms' inability to adjust prices instantaneously. However, different macroeconomic models make conflicting predictions about the level of price dispersion, as well as about its dynamic properties and sensitivity to ...
Working Papers , Paper 15-10

Working Paper
Monetary Policy, Residential Investment, and Search Frictions: An Empirical and Theoretical Synthesis
Lunsford, Kurt Graden (2016-02-12)
Using a factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR), this paper shows that residential investment contributes substantially to GDP following monetary policy shocks. Further, it shows that the number of new housing units built, not changes in the sizes of existing or new housing units, drives residential investment fluctuations. Motivated by these results, this paper develops a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model where houses are built in discrete units and traded through searching and matching. The search frictions transmit shocks to housing construction, making them ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1607

Working Paper
Liquidity, Capital Pledgeability and Inflation Redistribution
Diaz, Julian; Boel, Paola; Finocchiaro, Daria (2021-11-10)
We study the redistributive effects of expected inflation in a microfounded monetary model with heterogeneous discount factors and collateral constraints. In equilibrium, this heterogeneity leads to borrowing and lending. Model assumptions also guarantee a tractable distribution of money and capital holdings. Several results emerge from our analysis. First, in this framework expected inflation is detrimental to capital accumulation. Second, expected inflation affects borrowing and lending when collateral constraints are present, thus also inducing redistributive effects through credit. Third, ...
Working Papers , Paper 21-26

Working Paper
Wealth Effects, Price Markups, and the Neo-Fisherian Hypothesis
Airaudo, Marco; Hajdini, Ina (2021-11-17)
By introducing Jaimovich-Rebelo (JR) consumption-labor nonseparable preferences into an otherwise standard New Keynesian model, we show that the occurrence of positive comovement between inflation and the nominal interest rate conditional on a nominal shock - the so-called neo-Fisherian hypothesis - depends on the extent of wealth effects in households’ labor supply decisions. Neo-Fisherianism appears more prominent in economic environments with i) weaker wealth effects on labor supply (in particular for Greenwood-Hercowitz-Huffmann preferences where wealth effects are absent), and ii) ...
Working Papers , Paper 21-27

Working Paper
On the Essentiality of Credit and Banking at Zero Interest Rates
Waller, Christopher J.; Boel, Paola (2023-05-23)
We investigate the welfare-increasing role of credit and banking at zero interest rates in a microfounded general equilibrium monetary model. Agents differ in their opportunity costs of holding money due to heterogeneous idiosyncratic time-preference shocks. Without banks, the constrained-efficient allocation is never attainable, since impatient agents always face a positive implicit rate in equilibrium. With banks, patient agents pin down the borrowing rate and in turn enable impatient agents to borrow at no cost when the inflation rate approaches the highest discount factor. Banks can ...
Working Papers , Paper 23-13

Working Paper
Private news and monetary policy forward guidance or (the expected virtue of ignorance)
Waki, Yuichiro; Fujiwara, Ippei (2015-04-01)
How should monetary policy be designed when the central bank has private information about future economic conditions? When private news about shocks to future fundamentals is added to an otherwise standard new Keynesian model, social welfare deteriorates by the central bank?s reaction to or revelation of such news. There exists an expected virtue of ignorance, and secrecy constitutes optimal policy. This result holds when news are about cost-push shocks, or about shocks to the monetary policy objective, or about shocks to the natural rate of interest, and even when the zero lower bound of ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 238

Working Paper
The international monetary and financial system: a capital account historical perspective
Borio, Claudio; James, Harold; Shin, Hyun Song (2014-10-01)
In analysing the performance of the international monetary and financial system (IMFS), too much attention has been paid to the current account and far too little to the capital account. This is true of both formal analytical models and historical narratives. This approach may be reasonable when financial markets are highly segmented. But it is badly inadequate when they are closely integrated, as they have been most of the time since at least the second half of the 19th century. Zeroing on the capital account shifts the focus from the goods markets to asset markets and balance sheets. Seen ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 204

Working Paper
The international monetary and financial system: its Achilles heel and what to do about it
Borio, Claudio (2014-10-01)
This essay argues that the Achilles heel of the international monetary and financial system is that it amplifies the ?excess financial elasticity? of domestic policy regimes, ie it exacerbates their inability to prevent the build-up of financial imbalances, or outsize financial cycles, that lead to serious financial crises and macroeconomic dislocations. This excess financial elasticity view contrasts sharply with two more popular ones, which stress the failure of the system to prevent disruptive current account imbalances and its tendency to generate a structural shortage of safe assets ? ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 203

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