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Journal Article
Do Credit Supply Shocks Constrain Employment Growth of Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises?
Willis, Jonathan L.; Baslandze, Salomé; Minoiu, Camelia; Penciakova, Veronika (2023-09-25)
Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) made outsized contributions to net employment growth during the pandemic recession and recovery. However, credit conditions have tightened significantly during the past year and might hinder growth for small firms going forward. Using data on bank lending to small businesses and employment growth, we estimate that a tightening in bank credit supply of 1 percentage point is associated with an 11 percent decline in SMEs' net job creation rate. This estimate indicates that a bank credit tightening about one-third the size of the tightening observed ...
Policy Hub , Volume 2023 , Issue 5

Working Paper
Trading down and the business cycle
Rebelo, Sergio; Wong, Arlene; Jaimovich, Nir (2015-11-01)
The authors document two facts: First, during recessions consumers trade down in the quality of the goods and services they consume. Second, the production of low-quality goods is less labor intensive than that of high-quality goods. Therefore, when households trade down, labor demand falls, increasing the severity of recessions. The authors find that the trading-down phenomenon accounts for a substantial fraction of the fall in U.S. employment in the recent recession. They study two business cycle models that embed quality choice and find that the presence of quality choice magnifies the ...
FRB Atlanta CQER Working Paper , Paper 2015-5

Working Paper
Perturbation methods for Markov-switching DSGE models
Rubio-Ramirez, Juan F.; Waggoner, Daniel F.; Foerster, Andrew T.; Zha, Tao (2014-08-01)
Markov-switching DSGE (MSDSGE) modeling has become a growing body of literature on economic and policy issues related to structural shifts. This paper develops a general perturbation methodology for constructing high-order approximations to the solutions of MSDSGE models. Our new method, called "the partition perturbation method," partitions the Markov-switching parameter space to keep a maximum number of time-varying parameters from perturbation. For this method to work in practice, we show how to reduce the potentially intractable problem of solving MSDSGE models to the manageable problem ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2014-16

Working Paper
Trends and cycles in China's macroeconomy
Waggoner, Daniel F.; Zha, Tao; Chang, Chun; Chen, Kaiji (2015-06-01)
We make four contributions in this paper. First, we provide a core of macroeconomic time series usable for systematic research on China. Second, we document, through various empirical methods, the robust findings about striking patterns of trend and cycle. Third, we build a theoretical model that accounts for these facts. Fourth, the model's mechanism and assumptions are corroborated by institutional details, disaggregated data, and banking time series, all of which are distinctive Chinese characteristics. We argue that preferential credit policy for promoting heavy industries accounts for ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2015-5

Working Paper
Overconfidence, Subjective Perception, and Pricing Behavior
Karantounias, Anastasios G.; Benigno, Pierpaolo (2017-11-01)
We study the implications of overconfidence for price setting in a monopolistic competition setup with incomplete information. Our price-setters overestimate their abilities to infer aggregate shocks from private signals. The fraction of uninformed firms is endogenous; firms can obtain information by paying a fixed cost. We find two results: (1) overconfident firms are less inclined to acquire information, and (2) prices might exhibit excess volatility driven by nonfundamental noise. We explore the empirical predictions of our model for idiosyncratic price volatility.
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2017-14

Working Paper
Estimates of Cost-Price Passthrough from Business Survey Data
Knotek, Edward S.; Meyer, Brent; Bruine de Bruin, Wändi; Topa, Giorgio; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert; Schoenle, Raphael; Dogra, Keshav; Heise, Sebastian; Rich, Robert W. (2023-06-02)
We examine businesses' price-setting practices via open-ended interviews and in a quantitative survey module with business contacts from the Federal Reserve Banks of Atlanta, Cleveland, and New York in December 2022 and January 2023. Businesses indicated that their prices were strongly influenced by demand, a desire to maintain steady profit margins, and wages and labor costs. Survey respondents expected reduced growth in costs and prices of about 5 percent on average over the next year. Backward-looking, forward-looking, and hypothetical scenarios reveal average cost-price passthrough of ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2023-5

Working Paper
Tell Me Something I Don't Already Know: Learning in Low- and High-Inflation Settings
Meyer, Brent; Coibion, Olivier; Kumar, Saten; Ropele, Tiziano; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Kenny, Geoff; Georgarakos, Dimitris; Frache, Serafin; Lluberas, Rodrigo; Weber, Michael; Candia, Bernardo (2023-07-31)
Using randomized control trials (RCT) applied over time in different countries, we study how the economic environment affects how agents learn from new information. We show that as inflation has risen in developed economies, both households and firms have become more attentive and informed about inflation, leading them to respond less to exogenously provided information about inflation and monetary policy. This observation holds for both firms and households. We also study the effects of RCTs in countries where inflation has been consistently high (Uruguay) and low (New Zealand) as well as ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2023-8

Report
The Beige Book’s Value for Forecasting Recessions
Nelson, Nathaniel R.; Burke, Mary A. (2025-11-06)
Can the Beige Book help to tell us when a recession is coming? This question arises from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors’ description of the publication: “The qualitative nature of the Beige Book creates an opportunity to characterize dynamics and identify emerging trends in the economy that may not be readily apparent in the available economic data.” The report consists of summaries of current economic conditions nationally and in each of the 12 Federal Reserve Districts based on anecdotal information gathered from each District’s business contacts.
Current Policy Perspectives , Paper 25-15

Report
Reassessing the U.S. Economy’s Vulnerability to Oil Shocks
Zakrajšek, Egon; Patvakanian, Ara; Leiva-León, Danilo; Olivei, Giovanni P. (2026-06-04)
The impact of today’s oil price shocks may differ markedly from those of shocks in the 1970s. As noted in the minutes of the April 28–29, 2026, Federal Open Market Committee meeting, two structural changes to the U.S. economy could cushion the impact: the substantial increase in domestic oil production and the declining share of spending devoted to energy. This brief examines empirical evidence on how these transformations have altered the U.S. economy’s vulnerability to oil shocks.
Current Policy Perspectives , Paper 26-5

Working Paper
Global Inflation, Regional Factors
Stein, Hillary; Sheremirov, Viacheslav (2025-08-01)
This paper shows that global inflation dynamics have a sizable regional component. Using a balanced panel of 61 countries that starts in 1970, we document that while the global factor, defined as the dominant principal component, explains a large portion of inflation variation in advanced economies, a model with only one principal component is less successful for developing countries. By contrast, a hierarchical dynamic factor model, which includes a global (unconstrained) factor and regional (restricted) factors, performs substantially better for emerging market and developing economies. The ...
Working Papers , Paper 25-6

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